Nigeria’s crude oil exports are set to edge lower in October, as the country’s loading programme for 17 crude and condensate grades indicates combined shipments of 1.44 million barrels per day (bpd), down slightly from 1.47 million bpd in September.
The marginal decline underscores the continuing fragility of Africa’s largest oil producer as it struggles to stabilise production, attract investment, and meet its OPEC+ commitments amid security, technical and funding constraints.
According to an exclusive loading schedule seen by BusinessDay, Nigeria will ship 47 cargoes of crude in October, the same number as in September, though overall daily volumes will fall by about 34,000 bpd.
The reductions, while modest, reflect a pattern of uneven supply that has dogged the industry throughout 2025. The latest programme highlights both gains and setbacks across Nigeria’s key crude streams, with some grades rising modestly and others slipping.
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Winners and losers
Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship light sweet crude, will hold steady at 213,500 bpd across seven October cargoes, broadly unchanged from September’s 212,000 bpd. State-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited will ship five of these, while Shell is scheduled to lift two. Bonny Light remains a bellwether grade for European refiners because of its low sulphur content and high gasoline yield.
Exports of medium-sweet Forcados are set at 272,000 bpd in October, down from 286,000 bpd the previous month.
The programme shows nine cargoes scheduled, with NNPC loading four, Shell three, while Nigeria’s Shoreline Energy and Italy’s Eni will each load one. Forcados is one of Nigeria’s most reliable streams, but periodic disruptions from pipeline leaks and sabotage have constrained flows.
Bonga, a deepwater grade operated by Shell and partners, shows one of the most notable increases. October loadings will rise to nearly 160,000 bpd, a jump of 58,000 bpd from September’s nine-month low of 101,700 bpd. NNPC will load two of the five scheduled cargoes, with Eni, Shell and TotalEnergies each lifting one.
The rebound at Bonga offers a rare bright spot for Nigeria’s offshore oil production, which has been hindered by underinvestment and natural decline.
Other grades are less buoyant. Qua Iboe, another highly prized light sweet grade, is set at 153,200 bpd across five cargoes, slightly lower than the 158,300 bpd scheduled in September. Exports of Escravos, operated by Chevron, will ease to 122,600 bpd from 126,700 bpd. Meanwhile, Usan, Egina and Amenam deepwater streams, largely exported to Asia, will each see reductions of around 30 to 40 percent compared with September levels.
CJ Blend and Okwuibome, two smaller grades, are scheduled for one cargo each in October, amounting to 31,000 bpd apiece. Combined, they total 62,000 bpd, down from 43,000 bpd last month. Brass River is scheduled to return with a single October cargo at 29,200 bpd after zero loading was recorded in September. Abo, another marginal grade, is pencilled for a one-off cargo equivalent to 22,600 bpd.
In contrast, exports of EA Blend, at 32,000 bpd in September, will be absent from the October programme. Traders said no cargoes were nominated for October loading, highlighting the intermittent nature of some Nigerian streams.
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Slippage against government targets
The October total of 1.44 million bpd falls short of Nigeria’s OPEC+ production quota of around 1.6 million bpd, underlining the country’s chronic underperformance within the producers’ cartel. While higher than the lows of under 1.2 million bpd seen in 2022–23, Nigeria has consistently lagged peers such as Angola in sustaining volumes.
The decline also raises questions about the government’s ambitious fiscal assumptions. Nigeria’s 2025 budget is benchmarked at 1.8 million bpd of production and $77 per barrel oil price. But with actual exports averaging significantly lower, the gap between planned and realised oil revenue remains wide, forcing the government to rely more heavily on borrowing and non-oil taxes.
“On paper, Nigeria should be exporting closer to 1.7 million–1.8 million barrels a day when condensates are included. In practice, the country struggles to reach 1.5 million,” said an oil trader with a European major. “That difference of 200,000–300,000 barrels per day is equivalent to nearly $500 million a month in lost revenue at current prices.”
Market dynamics and price outlook
The small drop in October volumes comes at a time when global oil markets are delicately balanced. Brent crude has traded around $72–74 per barrel in recent weeks, pressured by weak demand growth in Asia and a stronger US dollar. Nigerian grades typically trade at a premium to Brent because of their light, sweet quality, but differentials have softened in recent weeks as European refiners cut runs amid tepid fuel demand.
“The market for Nigerian light sweets is not as robust as it was earlier in the year,” said a West Africa-focused crude analyst at an international consultancy. “European refiners are cautious, and Asian demand is being met increasingly by US exports. Nigeria has to fight harder for market share.”
Indeed, US Gulf Coast exporters have aggressively ramped up shipments to both Europe and Asia, eroding Nigeria’s traditional advantage. At the same time, a competing West African producer, Angola, has stabilised its production at around 1.1 million bpd, offering greater predictability to buyers.
Structural challenges
Nigeria’s struggle to sustain exports reflects deeper structural issues in its oil sector. Industry executives cite a lack of new investments, with international oil companies diverting capital to more stable jurisdictions or lower-carbon projects.
While the NNPC has promised reforms to attract private capital into joint ventures and production sharing contracts, results have been mixed. The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021 was intended to overhaul fiscal terms and governance, but its implementation has been slow.
“Without significant new investments, Nigeria will continue to rely on aging fields and declining output,” said Charles Akinbobola, energy analyst at Lagos-based Sofidam Capital. “That means more volatility in the loading programmes, with some grades falling off completely from month to month.”
Outlook
For October, Nigeria’s loading programme signals relative stability, with only a modest decline compared with September. But the persistence of sub-quota exports underscores the vulnerability of Africa’s top oil exporter. Unless the government and industry can address structural bottlenecks, Nigeria risks continued revenue shortfalls and diminished influence within OPEC+.
“The problem is not just about October versus September,” said Akinbobola. “It’s about the long-term trajectory. Nigeria is not replacing declining barrels with new ones. That’s the real danger for the economy.”
