He also noted that the Land Use Act empowers governors to issue certificates of occupancy to landowners within their jurisdiction.”
“Vanguard” newspaper front page, April 28, 2025”… Headline: “Nnpcl Might Be In Bigger Trouble After Kyari”
“Just when you think the Nigerian State cannot possibly appoint an official who will turn a minor disaster into a major calamity, you are soon convinced of your mistake. I thought the best decision of the Tinubu government was made when Mele Kyari, the former Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, GMD-NNPCL, was sacked. I assumed then that no successor, if carefully selected, could be as bad or worse. Kyari, if he gets to read this article, I have my sincere apologies. Things could be worse after Mele.
I had intended to write an article titled MY BROTHER GMD-NNPCL, PLEASE START WITH THE TRUTH. The thrust of the article was based on three pillars, each of which is based on facts available to the most casual researcher. Casting modesty aside, I am not a casual researcher. My small consultancy unit works all the time on a few macroeconomic issues. One of the six major economic indices we track, indeed, the number one, is the petroleum sector — crude oil and fuel — in all its ramifications. We frequently make predictions regarding performance in the sector, and we are almost always right. By contrast, government and NNPCL officials have proved to be serial dissemblers, and their forecasts are often wrong. Since 2013, NNPCL’s crude production projection estimates, which constitute the basis of the annual budget, have also been the cardinal causes of budget failure every year till now.
Something must be seriously wrong with people once they assume office, high or low, in Abuja. Dr Reuben Abati, after his service with President Jonathan’s failed government, declared that demons permanently inhabit Aso Rock – waiting to turn previously intelligent and honest public commentators into serial liars (not exactly his words, but synonyms of what he wrote). They apparently regain their senses only after leaving the Aso Rock dungeon of dragons.
They once again started to observe what critics were saying, which they vigorously refuted when in office. The giant strides they wrote about disappear like the mirage they were all along. There is no single presidential spokesperson alive today who can praise his former boss publicly without receiving an avalanche of maledictions from the denizens of social media, as well as serious-minded people. They all share one thing in common: making false utterances while in office and forgetting that the appointment will end one day.
Ojulari has started on a false note, like Bola Ige.
“Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” George Santayana, 1863-1952.
“There is no single presidential spokesperson alive today who can praise his former boss publicly without receiving an avalanche of maledictions from the denizens of social media, as well as serious-minded people.”
Ojulari, being a technical professional trained mostly in Nigeria, can be forgiven for lacking a strong sense of history – a subject which is not taught in the Faculty of Engineering in Nigerian and British universities.
Otherwise, he would have known that the first thing you do on assuming top office is to find out what happened in the past – especially if your predecessor was unceremoniously sacked. What went wrong, resulting in the loss of confidence by the President? v “Power failure in Nigeria will be a thing of the past in six months.” Late Chief Bola Ige, Federal Minister, June 1999.
Ojulari’s ill-advised pronouncement about 3 million barrels per day of crude oil production reminds me of the late Chief Bola Ige, who was appointed Minister of Power and Steel by President Obasanjo in 1999. Ige’s first announcement forced me to fly to Abuja, at my own expense, to warn him to retract the statement. I told him that the power sector is so large and complex; he would need a full year to understand and manage it.
Promising an end to power failure amounted to self-inflicted reputation damage. He not only bluntly refused, but I was also ordered out of his office – “otherwise I will call the security to throw you out.” We met again in his Bodija residence in Ibadan after he was redeployed to the Ministry of Justice. There was a power failure, and the generator was on full blast. I then reminded him of our first meeting. He apologised profusely and ended up by saying, “Dele, there are some witches and wizards in the power sector who don’t want things to work.” Well, the petroleum sector has its own army of dragons and wizards who are there to trip up any new GMD-NNPCL that promises great things without their consent. Kyari learnt that, like wisdom on the eighth day of the week, as he was shown the gate recently. Ojulari risks leaving NNPCL worse than he found it if he insists on starting with false promises. Here are two reasons why.
History of crude production and current situation
“Every forecast must start with an objective study of what happened in the past based on data available.”
