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The biggest ‘known unknown’ in Nigeria today is if and when President Goodluck Jonathan will formally declare his intention to run for president in 2011 under the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP). If he does, he will be facing three formidable opponents, namely retired generals Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) of the PDP and Muhamadu Buhari (Congress for Progressive Change, CPC), former vice president Abubakar Atiku (PDP), and the Kano State Governor, Ibrahim Shekerau (All-Nigeria Peoples Party-ANPP). While the politics of these candidates and possible dark horses are fairly well known, Jonathan remains an enigma. This essay outlines the thinking and political calculations of his Goodluck School of Nigerian presidential politics.
The Goodluck School’s joker is their fighting song: ‘My godfather is bigger than yours, and the boys like it, u huh! …’ The premier league of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, ‘Mr. Fix It’ Tony Anenih, PDP chairman Okwesilieze Nwodo, and even the ghost of the late Lamidi Adedibu all support Jonathan. IBB and Atiku are, at best, second rate godfathers themselves, while Buhari has never been a fan of godfathers, anyway.
The Goodluck School feeds on the collateral advantages of state failure and the concomitant fratricidal conflicts raging in every relevant political identity group in the country. Despite its threat to make trouble for Nigeria if power is not returned to the North in 2011, the ‘old North’ has garnered only feeble compliance to its ban on Northern support for Jonathan. The Southwest and Southeast governors now know how unpopular they are; socio-cultural and political groups in their fiefdoms have gone over their heads to join the Jonathan presidency train.
Babangida, of all people, and Atiku, may have converted to champions of ‘Igbo presidency’, instead of Ohaneze and MASSOB, but Benito Mussolini once asked Pope Pius X111: “Where is your army?” Jonathan’s opponents don’t have coercive arms of the state to cower some hesitant governors. While reaching out to them, Jonathan may have unleashed the EFCC on some of the ‘Executive Criminals’ as payback for their insistence on PDP’s zoning or even preparation for their own presidential ambitions in 2015. You forget that Jonathan is a graduate of Nigeria’s school of jungle politics at your own peril!
You can’t win the presidency or run Nigeria’s mono-culture economy without peace in the Niger Delta. All the presidential hopefuls know this; hence, their reported clandestine meetings with Niger Delta militant chieftains. Access to the militants is an ace card in the Goodluck School’s kitty, as long as Jonathan heeds their warning that he has no choice but to run for president.
How is your presidential ambition playing in the White House and all the other global power centres? The answer favours Jonathan who has less stinky baggage than his opponents. Atiku’s corrupt allies languish in America’s jails, and the PTDF corruption saga still hangs around his neck. President Barrack Obama’s anticipated visit to Abuja may have to be deferred with IBB or Buhari in the saddle. They are too risky for the ‘no drama Obama’ folks. Jonathan may have to explain spending $154 million on three presidential jets while 70 per cent of Nigerians live in poverty, but America needs the resultant hundreds of jobs, very badly.
Read Also: The Economics of President Goodluck Jonathan’s Administration
Moreover, America is counting on the Gulf of Guinea (read Nigeria) for 25 per cent of its ‘stable energy security’ needs. An IBB or Atiku-and God forbid, Buhari-presidency will threaten all that because the ‘Executive Militants’ (Turai Yar’Adua says Jonathan is their Dean) will unleash all the ‘amnestied’ militants to inflict unacceptable damage that will reflect instantly on America’s gas pumps.
Vuvuzelas do not win matches; otherwise South Africans would have won the World Cup. In the noise-making contest, Jonathan has IBB to beat. However, the former dictator’s presidential bid seems to be faltering nationwide, the more his ‘supporters’ drum even louder and he bankrolls their dance of deceit even among the Nigerian Diaspora. Nigerians are ‘docile,’ but will they fall for the blitzkrieg portrayal of Babangida as ‘the victim’ who has actually done a lot for Nigeria? Open media (such as Facebook) devoid of monetary inducements seems to be a better gauge of the popularity of the presidential contenders. Jonathan is ahead here; yet, he has stayed above the fray, acting presidential and focusing on national unity.
Control of the ‘bully pulpit’ and the national feeding trough are formidable largesse that the Goodluck School will dangle at every political jobber and aspirant during the up-coming PDP conventions. Also, let’s not forget the Nigeria Police, at least the top brass. Musiliu Smith retired handsomely after the 1999 rigged elections; Sunday Ehindero got only six months jail time for hoarding N10 billion ‘blood money’ payment to the Police for ‘executing’ the 2003 elections. Mike Okiro is enjoying his retirement after overseeing the mother of all flawed elections in 2007. His successor Ogbonnaya Onovo and EFCC’s Farida Waziri live in the jungle, too, where labourers deserve their wages. Jonathan has the upper hand here as well.
Finally, have you seen the bumper sticker that says ‘My First Lady Can Beat Up Your Governor and His Wife’? If Madam ‘Peshe’ can literally crack the balls of a ‘Demolition Governor’ in public, you can imagine what she would do with the boobs and bras of any old or aspiring First Ladies. Strike a woman, you strike a boulder. Good luck striking a woman in the Goodluck School of Politics!
