For many countries and many governments, foreign policy challenges are playing increased role today than was the case in the past. From every indication, President Buhari will face his own share of foreign policy challenges. How the Buhari administration handles his share of foreign policy challenges will have serious ramifications for Nigeria and for Africa as a whole. Arguably, past administrations in Nigeria did not always give foreign policy the attention that it deserved with damaging consequence for Nigeria. Today, Nigeria is paying a very high price – economically, diplomatically, territorially, politically and militarily – for poor foreign policy choices of yesteryears. As the president of Africa’s most populous nation, President Buhari would do well to be fully aware of the wide range of foreign policy challenges that currently exist or that are on the horizon. Most important, he must formulate and unveil to the Nigerian public, strategic and reasoned responses to key foreign policy challenges. With a lot of political capital on his side and the goodwill of the governments of many countries behind him, President Buhari must begin to lay the foundation of what could be an informed and strategic foreign policy agenda. While the Buhari administration will confront numerous foreign policy challenges, ten of these challenges deserve particular mention.
(1) Boko Haram/ISIS/global terrorism
Boko Haram is at one and the same time a domestic problem, a regional problem and a global problem. Given Boko Haram’s operations from and in neighboring countries in Africa and their growing ties with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), a successful and permanent solution to the problem will require that the Buhari administration collaborate with neighboring African countries, with relevant regional and continental institutions and with key Western governments and other allies. Beyond Boko Haram, there is need to explore regional and continental solution to the problems of terrorism, extremism, and intolerance in Africa. Many of Africa’s terrorist groups fall within the so-called “Africa’s arc of instability.” Benjamin Eveslage, in an article published in Perspectives on Terrorism, discusses the likelihood that Boko Haram will transnationalize and warns that “[d]ue to the proximity of some extremist groups in this region and their similar ideology, it is feared that their collaboration would result in the ability to launch globally threatening terrorist attacks.”
(2) Regional integration
Although Africa is enjoying an economic transformation and many countries in the region are seeing phenomenal growth rates, economic gains are not translating into sustainable growth and shared prosperity. According to Jennifer Blanke, chief economist, World Economic Forum, regional integration is key to addressing underlying weakness in Africa’s long-term competitiveness through the delivery of wider social and economic benefits and should be prioritized by Africa’s leaders. Experts agree that regional integration will help Africa to close the competitiveness gap (vis-à-vis other regions), boost intra-African trade, increase foreign direct investment (FDI), and attain the goals of sustainable development. The agenda for an integrated Africa is not new but dates back to the 1963 Charter of the Organization of African Unity (the predecessor to the Africa Union) as well as to the Treaty Establishing the African Economic Community or the so-called “Abuja Treaty” of 1991. In furtherance of the modalities for integration set out in the Abuja Treaty, on 27 June 2014, at the 23rd Ordinary Session of the Summit of the African Union, Member States of the Africa Union adopted the Protocol on the Establishment of the Africa Monetary Fund (“Fund”). While on paper the plans for an integrated Africa appear to be on course, evidence on the ground suggests otherwise. From every indication, the integration process remains very slow and faces many challenges and obstacles. There is a need for a comprehensive review of the state of regional integration in Africa with a view to seriously addressing the key policy and practical challenges to closer regional integration. Addressing Nigeria’s volatile relations with South Africa should also be in the mix.
(3)Foreign direct investment/bilateral investment treaties/investor-state dispute settlement
How to attract growth-enhancing foreign direct investment (FDI) that can boost Nigeria’s competitiveness, grow and diversify Nigeria’s economy, and contribute to sustainable development should clearly be on President Buhari’s agenda. To attract development-enhancing FDI, there is a need to create a more enabling business environment, enhance human capital and technological capacity, and develop Nigeria’s infrastructure and financial sectors. In addition, a thorough and comprehensive review of legal framework for investment promotion and protection in Nigeria is required. To start with, a thorough review all the bilateral investment treaties (BITs) that Nigeria has concluded or is in the process of concluding is absolutely necessary. According to United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, “[w]hile almost all countries are parties to one or several [International Investment Agreements], many are dissatisfied with the current regime.” Following the lead of countries like India, South Africa, Indonesia, Australia, and even the United States, President Buhari should launch a comprehensive, transparent and participatory review of Nigeria’s BITs. The president must also pay close attention to trends in international investment law rule-making as well as on-going debates about the possible reform of the investor-state dispute settlement system. First, Nigeria’s BITs should be reviewed and a thorough assessment made of their costs, benefits, and likely impact on sustainable development and domestic policy space. Second, President Buhari must consider, in cooperation with relevant partners, the possibility of revising and/or amending ‘old-generation’ BITs that Nigeria concluded with a view to updating and modernizing them. Defending his country’s decision to let some old generation BITs expire, Indonesian Ambassador to Belgium, Arif Havas Oegroseno, stated: “It should not come as a shock that Indonesia wants to update, modernize and balance its BITs. But it would be shocking if today there were loud protestations against changing the BITs [that] were signed in the previous century. Or, expectations for Indonesia to continue accepting one-way BITs while at the same time pressuring the nation not to let all of its natural resources be taken away raw” (Jakarta Post, 7 July 2014). Third, Oegroseno’s position that “Indonesia should invest in building an army of highly intelligent and assertive international trade and investment lawyers” is also one that the Nigeria government must take seriously and urgently implement.
(4) China and other emerging partners
As the world’s economic gravity moves away from OECD members towards the east and the south, how to cultivate and maintain relations with key emerging partners should be a top priority for President Buhari. According to reports, trade between Africa and emerging economic powers is now worth about USD673.4 billion a year. China, India, Brazil, and Korea and Turkey are Africa’s top five emerging partners.
China should feature strongly in President Buhari’s foreign policy agenda. In 2014, China became the world’s largest economy, according to the International Monetary Fund. Over the last decade, China-Africa trade and investment relations have grown exponentially. Between 2009 and 2012, China’s direct investment into Africa increased from US$1.44 billion to US$2.52 billion. As at the end of 2013, China’s direct investment in Africa stood at about US$25 billion. In 2013, bilateral trade between China and Africa reached US$210.3 billion (2,000 times what it was in 1960). According to the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (MOFCOM), Africa is now China’s fourth-largest investment destination, China’s second-largest overseas construction project contract market, and China’s fourth major source of imports. Unfortunately, while China appears to have adopted a principled, pragmatic, and strategic approach to its engagement with countries in Africa and has published its African Policy, the position of African countries in general and Nigeria in particular when it comes to China is less clear. Beijing published its African Policy Paper almost a decade ago in 2006. In 2013, Beijing released the White Paper on China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation. Nigeria does not appear to have a well-defined China policy; if such a policy exists, it has not been communicated to the Nigerian public. President Buhari needs to present to Nigerians and to the world Nigeria’s China policy and the measures to achieve them. What, if any, is Nigeria’s proposal for engaging China in the coming years? Is China-Nigeria relations designed and structured to yield win-win outcomes? What mechanisms are in place to ensure that both sides adhere to the principles of mutuality of benefit and win-win outcome? How can the legal frameworks that underpin China-Africa relations be strengthened and made more transparent? The idea of a collaborative mechanism (e.g., a Nigeria-China Binational Commission) that will allow high-level representatives of both countries to meet periodically to discuss a wide range of strategic and economic issues important to both sides and to measure progress is one that President Buhari must seriously consider assuming such a mechanism does not already exist. What is true for China is also true for Africa’s other emerging partners such as India and Brazil. Emerging partners are changing Nigeria’s and Africa’s economic landscape but on what terms and to whose advantage?
(5) Food security/food safety/global governance
Food security, according to the 1996 World Food Summit, is achieved “when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” This is not the situation in Africa or in Nigeria. On the contrary, food insecurity in a chronic problem in Africa. About 223 million people in Africa are considered undernourished, according to The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2015. Although Nigeria has the potential to eliminate hunger, ensure sustainable food security, and produce enough food for export, malnutrition and food insecurity remains a problem in the country. The Buhari administration would do well to pay serious attention to the internal (local) as well as the external (regional and global) factors that are either contributing to or exacerbating food insecurity in Africa in general and Nigeria in particular. On the global front, he must pay particular attention to how the global trade and investment architecture affects and shapes food availability and accessibility in Africa. He must pay closer attention to the global food governance frameworks with a view to ensuring that African voices are heard and African needs addressed. The Ebola outbreak underscored the relationship between public health, food safety and food security. Despite the glaring intersections, there is presently no comprehensive or integrated approach to food safety in Africa, no comprehensive system of traceability within food and feed businesses in the continent, no generally-agreed principles upon which food and feed may be traded throughout the continent, and no agency tasked with providing scientific advice and technical support for continent-wide legislation and policies that have direct or indirect impact on food safety. How to improve continental readiness to food safety concerns should definitely be on President Buhari’s agenda.
(6) The global drive for energy security and the need for new products and new markets
President Buhari assumed office at a time when oil prices are at an all-time low and the top 25 major energy users in the world are not as vulnerable to political instability in some large oil producing countries of the Middle East, Africa, and elsewhere, as they once were. “Extremely cheap oil is back, and it may get even cheaper,” Matt Egan noted recently in CNN Money. According to the United States Chamber Institute for 21st Century Energy’s International Index of Energy Security Risk (2015), which ranks countries based on 29 metrics in eight areas related to energy security, “Energy security risks for the top 25 major energy users declined in 2013 thanks in large part to the market-calming influence of greater unconventional oil and natural gas output from the United States and Canada.” The energy/trade/investment policies of the Buhari administration must change as the needs and vulnerabilities of major energy users change. For one thing, there is an urgent need to find new markets for Nigeria’s oil, to diversify Nigeria’s export portfolio and to find markets for Nigeria’s non-oil exports. Just as the energy security risks of some Western countries are changing, those of countries like China are changing as well and must be factored into Buhari’s foreign policy calculations. China will become the largest oil-consuming country by the early 2030s, according to the World Energy Outlook 2014. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), China “became the largest global energy consumer in 2011,” “surpassed the United States at the end of 2013 as the world’s largest net importer of petroleum and other liquids,” and will import over 66 percent of its total oil by 2020 and 72 percent by 2040. Indeed according to the EIA, “China’s oil consumption growth accounted for about 43 percent of the world’s oil consumption growth in 2014” and is projected to account for more than one-fourth of the global oil consumption growth in 2015. What might this mean for President Buhari’s China policy?
(7) WTO/trade reform
Reforming the multilateral trading system is an issue that President Buhari cannot ignore. In 2014, the World Trade Organization (WTO) reached a major impasse related to the interplay between two of the Bali decisions — Public Stockholding and Trade Facilitation. “These are difficult days for our organization,” WTO’s Director-General Roberto Azevêdo announced at a meeting of the Trade Negotiations Committee in October 2014. Azevêdo expressed concern at the fact that WTO Member States had reached an impasse on a number of important issues despite intense and comprehensive consultations and also expressed concern about “the current scenario of disengagement” plaguing the WTO. To Azevêdo, “a continuation of the current paralysis would serve only to degrade the institution — particularly the negotiating function.” From every indication, work on substance at the WTO is unlikely to advance anytime soon. As the tenth WTO Ministerial Conference scheduled to take place in Nairobi, Kenya, in December approaches, President Buhari and a team of seasoned experts in global trade rules must seek answers to some important questions. What are the implications of a prolonged Doha Development Round for Africa and for Nigeria? Going forward, what should Nigeria’s position be on key issues under discussion at the WTO? In light of current paralysis, what key bilateral and regional trade arrangements should Nigeria actively pursue?
(8) Global governance reform
There are growing calls for reform of current multilateral institutions. Countries like China and India are boldly calling for further governance reform at international financial institutions (IFIs). The Buhari administration must pay serious attention to global governance issues and, in particular, global governance reform. While a focus on the reform of global economic governance institutions is warranted, the attention of the administration must encompass the broad spectrum of global governance organizations and institutions, including institutions that address food safety and food security concerns. Is global governance effective in encouraging sustainable development, economic growth, as well as peace and security in Africa? Are African voices adequately represented in global governance structures? Are African countries contributing meaningfully to on-going debates about reform? These questions and more should guide action on the subject.
(9) Regional security/climate change
A convergence of security crises is playing out around the globe and in Africa. Factors such as drought, famine, internal wars, and terrorism are bringing about massive dislocation within countries in Africa and across the porous borders in the continent and are creating new security dilemmas in the continent. Climate change poses additional threats to regional security in Africa now and in the future. Predictions about the impact of climate change on Africa’s ecosystem, natural resources, and food system are dire. According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC Report), climate change is bringing about considerable changes in the distribution and dynamic of all types of ecosystem in Africa. Climate change will increase challenges on Africa’s coastal and ocean systems from a number of stressors including habitat degradation, pollution and loss of biodiversity. The IPPC Report goes on to state that climate change “is very likely to have an overall negative effect on yields of major cereal crops across Africa,” that “livestock systems in Africa face multiple stressors that can interact with climate change and variability to amplify the vulnerability of livestock-keeping communities” and that “coastal countries of West Africa will experience a significant negative impact from climate change” with devastating effect on fisheries and food security in the region. How to build and strengthen regional and continental governance system for climate change adaptation and tackle present and future weather-related security crisis in Africa deserves urgent attention.
(10) Traditional partners
Even while courting new partners in the east and south, Nigeria’s traditional partners cannot and must not be ignored. In 2011, traditional partners accounted for 62 percent of Africa’s trade and the European Union represented more than 40 percent of Africa’s trade (almost three times that of China), according to the African Economic Outlook. In terms of FDI, traditional partners still dominate. According to the African Economic Outlook, “OECD countries – including traditional partners – still account for about 80 percent of FDI flows to Africa” although the share of non-OECD countries is rising remarkably. Nigeria’s and Africa’s relationship with traditional partners is changing but in what direction and on what terms? This is a question that merits President Buhari’s serious attention.
Conclusion
Crafting a clear and strategic foreign policy is important given today’s changing and dynamic global economic and social landscape. In addition to the ten issues identified, many other issues deserve attention including peace building and conflict prevention, regional security, peace keeping, democracy and human rights, human trafficking, organized crime, money laundering, and trade in illicit arms.
Nigeria cannot hope to become a credible regional or international actor without a strategic and informed foreign policy. However, Nigeria’s relevance on the global and continental scene will largely depend on President Buhari’s success in addressing mounting domestic problems and making wise political choices on key issues. Nigeria cannot hope to project power, exert influence overseas, or effectively compete in the global marketplace with mounting domestic problems that appear unmanageable. Domestic problems such as the escalating security problems, weak institutions, poor and barely functioning domestic infrastructure, poor educational system, and corruption thus deserve the president’s urgent attention.
In conclusion, given tumultuous and changing global economic and political landscape, President Buhari must give foreign policy the attention it deserves. A reasoned and strategic national policy is necessary if the president hopes to protect Nigeria’s national interest and be well-positioned to handle present and future regional and global challenges. However, President Buhari’s credibility on the foreign policy front is intimately tied to his success in resolving deep-rooted domestic problems. Ten things must be done urgently. President Buhari should: (1) set clear and measurable foreign policy goals and objectives and communicate same to the Nigerian public; (2) review and possibly revamp Nigeria’s foreign policy decision-making process; (3) reform Nigeria’s foreign policy bureaucracy; (4) introduce a measure of transparency in Nigeria’s foreign policy discussions and calculations; (5) get the country’s domestic house in order by addressing deep-seated domestic problems and creating strong domestic foundations; (6) deploy the best tools and the best team available for the job; (7) reinforce mutually beneficial alliances and partnerships; (8) encourage and devote resources towards the development of graduate and undergraduate programs in public policy, government, diplomacy, international affairs, as well as international trade and investment; (9) establish mechanism for systematic and periodic review of incentives, goals, strategy and challenges; and (10) reassess old and new factors that constrain the execution of Nigeria’s foreign policy.
PS: The views expressed are those of the author in her personal capacity and do not necessarily reflect the views of the institutions that she is affiliated with.
Uche E. Ofodile
Prof Ofodile, co-chair, Int’l Investment & Dev. Committee, American Bar Association Section of International Law; co-chair, Africa Interest Group, American Society of International Law; and secretary-general, African Society of International Law, teaches at the University of Arkansas School of Law.
