Barring any other clanger in the works, by now the results of Saturday’s elections should be in the offing. As any omniscient observer will attest, the run-up to the D-Day was very dicey. All through, it was something of a titanic struggle between the two major parties: the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). It has even been contended that never in the history of an election has the race been so tight.
This is very true. But what the analysts seem to have ignored is the seismic shift which has taken place on the Nigerian political scene. My specific reference here is to the fact that all along, our political system has always been characterized by a one- dominant-party system. But probably for the first time, there are two hegemons on the block slugging it out for supremacy. As far as I am concerned, this is very heart-warming. This is because what the two-party system has thrown up amounts to a fair contest. But then, there is the down-side. This is in the form of the brick-bats and mutual acrimony on the part of the two parties. Of course, close observers of the scene will readily appreciate that some characters deserve the gold medal here. But even then, and strictly speaking, abuse is cheap.
What is perhaps much more demanding is the crafting of human-oriented policies which will make Nigeria a better place. This was clearly missing. On this note, older readers cannot but yearn for the good old days when an Obafemi Awolowo came forth with his seductive, four-point cardinal programme. Several years after this proclamation, we still remember this programme and its components.
Dear reader, this time around, can you remember any catchy and concrete programmes from both sides? However, what is definitive and can easily be remembered was the frenzied desperation of both sides for power. The rationale for this anomaly is not too difficult to find. In a way, it is peculiarly Nigerian. And which is why we must ask why. We must ask why we are so “blest”, for want of a better word. The point is that most of the politicians, or better still political gladiators, do not have visible and viable sources of livelihood. And to this extent, the Nigerian state continues to be their platform for primitive accumulation. This is why another name for politics in these parts is war. And in any war, truth is usually the first casualty.
What has been said so far also ties in readily with another major concern about the elections. The specific reference here is to the justified concern about that inclement variable. In the run-up to the elections, I read most of the homilies as regards the compelling need for violence-free elections. But most of the homilies did not address the issue of why we are bound to violence. Apologies to Yambo Ologuem, the Malian writer.
In addressing this sub-theme, one undisputable fact is that the raw materials of any violence industry are the youths: unemployed, or under-employed. Youths constitute a ready army that can easily be pressed into this nefarious enterprise. Again, this points to the structure of our society. It is tailor-made for violence in view of the fact that the past and current managers of the Nigerian state have not put in place wholesome policies which can take care of this critical segment of the populace. The ensuing scenario is that such forces, i.e., the youths, are readily available for these various shades of criminality. And I have used the word criminality in a conscious way. This is because after every election, there is usually an upsurge of armed robberies. In other words, after the various informal ironies have been disbanded, these wasting symbols of a wasting society will turn on the rest of us. So, dear reader, the election may be over, still danger looms.
On a seemingly different note, one puzzle for me was posed by the comparison between Israel and Nigeria. In the former social formation, elections have just been held and they were peaceful. There is an ironic touch here. This is because Israel is a highly militarized society which has been at war since its establishment. By contrast, Nigeria has not been afflicted by such an inclement experience. Yet, violence is the overarching variable which defines our own elections. Here again, the structures of the respective societies come into play. Israel is run in such a way that youth unemployment is not a major problem.
But one cannot say the same thing for us.
Meanwhile, there are other contrasting variables between Israel and Nigeria. Israel is virtually arid and surrounded by enemies. Yet, the country is a major agricultural country. Nigeria, by contrast, is lush with greenery and surrounded largely by friendly countries. Yet, she is really a no-hoper in the area of agriculture. This is in view of the fact that till date we are all hooked on imported rice. Thus, the real difference may well lie in the quality or non-quality of leadership in both countries.
Thus, as we appear to close (?) shop on the 2015 elections, this much is clear: the outcome will throw up either a Jonathan or the old war-horse, Buhari. In view of these jaded choices, it is apposite to ask: do we have the kind of leadership that can take us to the desired nirvana? My answer will come in the form of this riddle from a famous writer who said: the present is the past entered through a new gate.
Kayode Soremekun
