Since Nigeria’s financial people and economists went full throttle about the ‘doom’ and ‘dire’ outlook of 2015, the outcome of all the political parties primaries has moved decisively in contrast and in favour of a likely clement breeze.
You might not necessarily get that from the outcome in some states where you had pockets of gun shots and fracases or from analysts and political commentators, but my favourite indicator, the across board ‘consensus’, now prices the chance of investor confidence at above the seemingly quirky projections.
If my indication is right, this is good news for the economy. The optimism of both local and foreign investors watching the play out of this unconventional and totally unexpected script, are much more reassured they can get their fixes from the certainty of politics and politicians, at least beyond 2015.
Nothing is even more reassuring than the definition Abdulfatah Ahmed, governor of Kwara State gave of consensus; “the message is that we can manage our affairs and conduct transparent elections without rancor or violence; that our structure is inclusive.” This is quite instructive.
In the past, competing interest of the presidency, the incumbent or the ‘godfathers’ have led to some serious hard feelings and consequent violence. We didn’t see much of that play out this time. Where and when it did, it was reduced to some muttering. They were all on board, an indication that some things have changed. At least I didn’t hear much of the intra party gangster style killings or elimination of opponents before primaries which was prevalent in the past.
On the other hand, there are a much larger number of well-intentioned crops of politicians now in the fray, including an array of bankers who are muddling the equation with their suave. Their entry into the mix would be remarkable in many ways, it could signal a new political trend.
To my thinking, the whole episode illustrates four very important developments. First, the awareness that states require better management and politicians are accepting that technocrats are better managers and must now be included in the equation to bolster their relevance to the people they seek to serve. Technocrats were in the past completely shut out. Second, it will not be possible to have any real economic fixes for the current state of the economy, beset by dwindling revenues and jerk-knee currency (Naira) except there is an agreement by all that despite the differences, there must be some measure of calm which the investment community can point to. Thirdly, the acknowledgement that Nigeria is suffering from more pressing problems at the moment; problem of insecurity, corruption, dwindling ‘oil money’ and an image that is suspect, and so nobody wants to be associated with issues that tend to exacerbate the already tensed country. Finally, the linguistic pattern in the speeches given by politicians in recent times offer signs that suggests that non wants to be associated with inciting tantrums.
I honestly see politicians build on this trend beyond 2015, focusing slowly but steadily on creating alternative type of politics, which eventually will eliminate those who still live in the medieval world, organizing to hold party members to account for their election promises to the people and continue to foster a politically engaged electorate.
Charles Ike-Okoh
