Yes, the numbers are up, but the mood is down. Nigeria’s latest economic figures tell a story few citizens recognise.
According to the Q1 2025 GDP Report, the economy grew 3.13 persistent year-on-year in real terms, an improvement over the 2.27 percent recorded in Q1 2024. That’s a solid uptick and the best first-quarter performance in over a year. But the story beneath the surface is more layered.
The numbers at a glance
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), three sectors including services, industry, and agriculture make up the backbone of the economy. But they’re not growing equally. Services grew by 4.33 percent and now contribute 57.50 percent to GDP.
Industry rose by 3.42 percent, a moderate gain. Agriculture, however, barely moved up just 0.07 percent, though that’s still a rebound from the -1.79 percent contraction seen in Q1 2024.
And while Nigeria’s nominal GDP rose significantly from N79.5 trillion to N94.05 trillion, indicating 18.30 percent growth, inflation-adjusted figures (real GDP) show a more tempered recovery.
Service sector drives growth but not stability
There’s no question: services are carrying Nigeria’s economy. From finance to telecoms, logistics to retail, this is where most new activity is happening. But there’s a catch.
“Growth is being led by sectors with high informality and low social protection,” says Umar Faruk, a senior economist at Research Institute. “These sectors may be creating income, but they aren’t creating security.”
Think ride-hailing, delivery, salons, betting shops, and social media marketing. These ventures are dynamic but precarious. They boost GDP but not always stability. Few come with pensions, contracts, or health insurance.
Industry: recovery, but still weak in parts
The industrial sector is recovering faster than agriculture, growing 3.42 percent compared to last year’s 2.35 percent. This growth is largely due to electricity, construction, and mining sub-sectors.
But it’s still too early to celebrate. A closer look shows that manufacturing remains under pressure, and oil historically Nigeria’s economic engine isn’t what it used to be.
The report shows that while industry’s contribution to GDP increased, the challenges of power shortages, FX volatility, and supply chain costs still loom large.
Agriculture: A giant that’s rarely moving
Despite employing a large share of Nigeria’s workforce, agriculture is barely growing. A 0.07 percent increase in Q1 2025, while better than last year’s contraction, reflects chronic underinvestment in irrigation, storage, security, and rural roads.
With food prices soaring, this sluggish growth exposes a painful truth: Nigerian farmers are producing less, even as demand rises. It’s a warning sign in a country where food inflation is a key driver of poverty.
Beneath the numbers: An economy in transition
What this report reveals are not just statistical growth, it’s structural change. Nigeria is becoming less dependent on oil and more oriented toward services. But that shift is unbalanced.
The country’s real economy where people hustle to make ends meet is evolving faster than policy. And while rebased figures offer clarity, they also raise a pressing question: who is benefitting from this growth?
A new policy mindset is needed
This is the time for governments to move beyond oil-centric thinking. The data tells us where the economy is growing: services and industry. That’s where infrastructure, credit, broadband, and regulation should now focus.
Equally, agriculture needs more than attention, it needs investment. A sector that large cannot be allowed to drift.
Final word
GDP is growing. But unless people feel it in their wages, jobs, and prices, it remains just a number.
Nigeria’s Q1 2025 data tells us the economy is not broken. But it is reorganizing around different engines, different people, and different realities.
To move forward, Nigeria must stop chasing legacy sectors and start backing the real economy: its people, their ideas, and the sectors where their labour actually
