Akin Yusuf
I can tell you that my attitude today towards the tenth anniversary of Nigeria’s democracy is lukewarm. I give glory to God that for the first time since 1960 when Nigeria attained nationhood, we have had ten years of uninterrupted democratic governance with its attendant developmental imperatives especially on the economy. At the same time, I am particularly sad because as I look back, what I see are wasted years, limited progress, stunted growth, ill conceived policies and unrealized dreams, all of which point to one direction – a shaky future. Certainly, this should not make anyone happy. You would then understand why I am not in the mood to join other Nigerians in celebrating the country’s ten years of democratic governance.
Of course I could not hold back tears of joy when Chief Olusegun Obasanjo recited his oath of office on May 29, 1999, as he became Nigeria’s second democratically elected President. Again, my joy knew no bounds as he immediately swung into action setting up probe panels ostensibly to dig into Nigeria’s wasted years. As I write this piece, I still ask myself what happened to those probes. And with trepidation I am once more moved to tears, even as I look back to review how we have wasted the past ten years; the lost opportunities, work yet undone, how smaller nations have swept past us, and in fact, the huge danger that lies ahead, if concrete actions are not immediately taken to grow Nigeria’s economy.
I still wonder whether Nigerians are better off today, than they were in 1999; whether our infrastructure is more stable and reliable presently than it was ten years ago; or whether we now have better security of life and property than we did ten years ago. And come to think of it, imagine if only we had succeeded in addressing the power problem as we did with telecom; if we had managed to add some value to our crude oil and natural gas; or, if we had been more sincere in addressing the Niger Delta issue? Of course, things would have changed for the better and there would have been more to celebrate than is the case at the moment. Can a man whose house is burning, rather be carried away chasing rats and rabbits? God forbid! Can we in all honesty pretend that all is well with Nigeria, with the serious fighting and bloodshed presently going on in the Niger Delta?
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Perhaps, there could be cause for celebration in the days and months ahead after President Yar’Adua’s declaration of the proposed state of emergency in the power sector (which will see Nigeria generating 6, 000MWs of electricity by December 2009). It is possible that we may still have cause to smile after the Vision 20-2020 Committee has concluded its work (which hopefully should re-introduce proper planning in Nigeria). May be there would be something to cheer if the on going global economic recession (that has further rubbished whatever is left of our ailing economy) abates. Otherwise, there is nothing to celebrate at the moment.
But that is not to say that nothing has happened to Nigeria’s economy in the past ten years. Of course, that would be an unfair judgment. Reasonable effort had gone into the process, which culminated in debt cancellation for Nigeria by the Paris Club; more prudent management of resources leading to the accumulation of considerable foreign reserve; banking and insurance sector consolidation; pension reform; better management of exchange rates leading to relative stability; as well as stable GDP growth rate for the country. Similarly, from a pariah status in 1999, Nigeria has been considerably transformed into a major frontier market. Nevertheless, these are not enough given the immense potentials and tremendous goodwill, which Nigeria has. Should Nigeria be walking when other developing economies are running?
Of course, things would have been remarkably different if only we had paid more attention to industrialization. Unfortunately, the country’s industrial sector has been so devastated that it has become as uncompetitive as ever. With capacity utilization at its lowest in recent times and a more than 35% cost disadvantage over and above neighbouring countries, leading manufacturing businesses especially those in the textile and plastics sub-sectors have either closed down completely or migrated to neighbouring countries where the business environment is friendly.
While we were carried away by the not too distant bonanza resulting from the astronomical rise in oil prices, we were also pretending to be paying attention to agriculture, which according to our economic planners was contributing more to the country’s GDP. What a blatant lie? How could we have pretended not to know that it is in our interest over the long term to add value to our primary resources? Are you therefore surprised that we are still importing refined petroleum and even paying more than other countries that are not as endowed as Nigeria? We have been deceived and encouraged to depend completely on primary production, which incidentally exposes us to the vagaries of international market, even as other developing economies strive to industrialize.
Honestly, my over all rating of the performance of Nigeria’s economy these past ten years is a below average mark. But things could be better. What Babatunde Fashola has done in Lagos within two years gives me hope. It also tells me that Nigeria could still be redeemed. However, this can only be possible if we decide to play less politics, while putting the national interest at the heart of everything we do. I still believe that our dear President, Umaru Musa Yar’Adua can do it. God bless Nigeria.
