Some political scientists say that population is national power. Population to my mind is not only numbers; it is about the quality of people. Population is central to national power, when the people are healthy, educated, disciplined, and organized with quality standard of living. In 2016, Nigeria’s population was estimated to be 193.3 million according to data from the National Population Commission (NPC) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This year, I have attended a few lectures where experts have raised concerns about the prediction by the United Nations (UN) that by the year 2050, “Nigeria’s population would hit 400 million.” Accordingly, Nigeria with a population growth of about 2.6 percent is expected to be the third most populous nation behind China and India. Of serious concern is how Nigeria’s environment will keep pace with a population of about 400 million.
When I reflect on the nation’s economy in the last 10 years, I asked a question: Can Nigeria’s economy cope with volatile population growth? To answer my question, let’s do a simple math with respect to the 2017 budget. The 2017 budget passed into law recently is about N7.44 trillion, which is the highest in the nation’s history. If we share this money equally amongst say, 193.3 million people, each Nigerian will be entitled to a paltry sum of about N40,000 only in the year. So, can a nation where individuals will earn about N40,000 in a year, for instance, be said to be prosperous? No!
Statistics show that Nigeria displays a poverty profile of about 120 million poor people with limited resources. For several years, it is disturbing to see abused and neglected children between ages 2-16 years begging for moneys on several streets in Nigeria. Believe it or not, some of these children are from Nigeria’s immediate neighboring nations. Most of these children don’t go to school, and they have lost contact with their parents. They remain on the streets, get married, and most times, have their children on the streets. For this group of children, the cycle of poverty continues from one generation to the other.
Some economists say that an economy that is to grow by 0.8 percent in 2017,and perhaps, 2.8 percent in 2018 according to the World Economic Forum, will not bring about significant development when weighed against a population growing at a rate of about 2.6 percent. They further argued that Nigeria should target an economy of annual growth rate ranging between 5to 7 percent consistently for the next couple of years to enable the nation cope with demands of increasing population. Going by my understanding of the argument, achieving an economic growth rate of 5 to 7 percent in a sustainable manner for years would be a tall order in Nigeria, because employment, infrastructure, social amenities, housing and health facilities are not improving at a fast rate. Indeed, Nigeria’s population is rapidly growing faster than development can cater to, faster than available resources to maintain it, and perhaps faster than the best population control methods adopted in the country.
I am aware that population growth does not automatically give rise to development in any nation if it is not well managed. A population growth that is not properly managed will in most cases, give rise to two world-wide concerns namely, mass unemployment and mass migration to cities. As I write, Nigeria is farther drifting away from development as those searching for jobs are migrating from rural and urban areas in hundreds of thousands to cities such as Lagos, Port Harcourt, and Abuja. In these cities, the jobs are barely available as most of those seeking employment are unemployable.
This is what usually happens in a “dual economy” such as Nigeria where about 30 percent of the population is confined to urban areas, while the remaining 70 percent are either in rural areas or small towns. On the contrary, the “dual economy” unless cautiously countered, produces what is referred to as “mutual poisoning” in which industrial development in cities destroy the economic structure in rural areas. Consequently, rural areas payback through mass migration into cities, harming those living in the latter with pollution, crimes- human trafficking, kidnapping and armed robbery, and thus, making them unmanageable. Most cities are therefore congested, infrastructure overstretched with increased crime rate. It is not surprising that Abuja and Lagos record highest crime rate in Nigeria in 2016, according to a recent NBS report.
The challenges associated with explosive population growth should not be seen as purely a health matter. The issue is beyond family planning as the negative impact of overpopulation cuts across all sectors of the economy. Multi-sectoral solutions would be required to tackle the challenges of overpopulation. Since Nigeria has decided to use agriculture as the basis for the development of its economy, then basic infrastructure must be extended to those living in rural areas of the country. That is, there must be good road network, efficient railway system, broadband facilities, and electricity in rural areas.
A nation that is endowed with huge population needs to be more focused as to how it would build the capacity of its people in order to achieve economic development. If we do not want population growth to be an impediment to economic development, governments must find ways of improving the health and well beings of Nigerians. With limited resources and overwhelming needs to control volatile population growth, all tiers of government in Nigeria must bring to the front burner of national discourse issues on family planning and child spacing. I sincerely advise governments not to shy away from acknowledging the damaging effects of an uncontrolled population on our ability to plan for future generations, and manage the nation’s limited resources. We should remember that an uncontrolled population will certainly give rise to depletion of national resources, degradation of the environment, and civil strife.
Akinsola Johnson
