Nigeria’s agricultural sector contribution to the economy rose to 27.8 percent in the first quarter of 2025, signalling a positive trend in the sector’s performance.
According to NBS, the rebasing exercise led to a shift in sectoral economic contributions, making agriculture’s share rise to 27.81 percent in 2024, up from 24.64 percent pre-rebasing.
This increase in the food sector comes at a point where the contributions of industry and services declined to 16.67 percent and 55.52 percent, respectively, compared to 18.47 percent and 56.89 percent under the previous methodology.
Ayo Teriba, chief executive officer of Lagos-based research firm Economics Associates, explained that the increase can be linked to the growing contribution of crop production as a subsector.
“This growth in the agric industry is caused by the growth in crop production, which prior to rebasing was N50 trillion and other sub-sectors contribute N6 trillion,” he said.
According to the rebased data, crop production now contributes N61 trillion.
The new methodology takes into account 2019 as its base year, including extensive surveys like the National Business Sample Census (NBSC) and the National Agricultural Sample Survey (2022), covering all sectors at national and state levels. In contrast, the 2010 base year included only 14 sectors
In the first quarter of 2025, the agricultural sector posted a marginal rebound in growth by 0.07 percent, following a contraction of 1.79 percent in the same period of 2024.
For Abiodun Olorundero, managing partner at Prasinos Farms, the marginal growth can be attributed to improved security measures, rising investors confidence, and a fall in food prices.
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This recovery was largely driven by an expansion in crop production, 3.71 percent supported by increased farming activity, which offset the contraction recorded in the livestock segment, 16.69 percent in Q1 2025.
Analyst from Meristem said that the sector’s growth fell short of its expectation, given the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, which showed a rise in the average Agricultural PMI to 53.43pts in the first quarter of 2025 from 46.30pts in the same period 2024, typically a sign of stronger momentum.
While pro-growth agricultural initiatives from the government might have offered some positive push, the sector continued to grapple with structural constraints such as erratic weather patterns, transportation inefficiencies, and inadequate storage facilities, which limited overall performance.
Subsequently, the sector’s contribution to GDP fell to 23.33 percent in the first quarter of 2025 from 24.04 percent in Q1 last year. This means that even though agriculture’s absolute output increased, its share of the expanded total economy decreased because other sectors outpaced it significantly.
