…Says trade not aid can develop Africa
Kishore Mahbubani, distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute and one of Asia’s leading geopolitical thinkers, has urged African countries to rethink their model of regional integration by learning from the flexible, consensus-driven approach of Southeast Asia, ASEAN.
He called on African leaders to seize the opportunities created by the ongoing reshaping of global geopolitics, trade, and energy systems.
Speaking in a fireside chat with Arunma Oteh, Academic at the University of Oxford and Former Treasurer of the World Bank, at the ongoing Afreximbank Annual Meetings in Abuja, Nigeria, Mahbubani emphasised that despite global uncertainties, Africa stands at a historic turning point.
Reflecting on the challenges of a changing world order, Mahbubani acknowledged the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China, and noted that the full impact of this competition is yet to unfold. He pointed to the war in Ukraine as a consequence of what he described as the European Union’s “geopolitical incompetence,” arguing that the conflict could have been avoided had the West acknowledged Russia’s security concerns. “As Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer have explained, the war could have been prevented if legitimate concerns were taken seriously,” he said.
Despite the grim tone with which he began, Mahbubani struck an optimistic chord about Africa’s prospects. “Contrary to people worrying about the decline in aid, this is Africa’s time,” he said, referencing data that suggests countries receiving less aid often experience higher growth. He stressed the need for African countries to embrace trade over aid, stating that dependency on foreign assistance often limits long-term development.
Mahbubani held up the example of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as a model more suited to Africa than the European Union. He described ASEAN’s evolution from a pro-American bloc to a region that has become the largest trading partner for China, surpassing even Japan, South Korea, and India. “By 2022, China’s trade with ASEAN had reached nearly one trillion dollars,” he noted, adding that this happened while ASEAN maintained strong investment relationships with the United States.
Yet Mahbubani cautioned that achieving similar success requires attention to the smallest administrative and infrastructural details. He shared his own experience arriving in Nigeria, where he faced challenges in completing immigration formalities due to a lack of mobile network access and inefficient airport Wi-Fi. “If you want to succeed in trade and investment, don’t just focus on the big things. Focus on the details,” he said, recalling how Singapore’s founding Prime Minister, Lee Kuan Yew, used to personally inspect airport facilities including the toilets to ensure visitors had a seamless experience. “Lee Kuan Yew would check the toilets himself,” he said, underscoring the transformative power of seemingly small acts of governance.
Drawing lessons from Asia’s development, Mahbubani urged African countries to copy successful models within the continent. “When Japan succeeded, it gave hope to fellow Asians. We copied from each other,” he explained. “There’s no need to reinvent the wheel.” He advocated a pragmatic model for Africa based on “MPH”—Meritocracy, Pragmatism, and Honesty, a principle he described as simple, replicable, and critical for development.
On regional integration, Mahbubani advised African countries to pursue a flexible approach similar to ASEAN’s. He observed that while the African Union aspires to the level of integration achieved by the European Union, it may benefit more from ASEAN’s informal, consensus-driven model. “If a country can’t join a policy, we let five others go ahead. When they’re ready, they can join. We’re flexible,” he said. ASEAN, he pointed out, began by fearing free trade agreements, but now leads the world’s largest free trade pact, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Oteh praised Afreximbank’s leadership in fostering Africa-wide collaboration, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic when the bank enabled countries to jointly procure vaccines. “When the West was hoarding vaccines, it was through Afreximbank’s efforts and partnerships that African countries created a platform to access them affordably. Even Caribbean nations benefited,” she said.
Responding to Oteh’s question about what his priorities would be if he were President of Africa or advisor to the presidents of South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya Mahbubani laid out three core recommendations. First, he urged African leaders to look inward for solutions and replicate what is already working across the continent. Second, he emphasised the importance of implementing the MPH principle across governance and institutions. Third, he called for a deliberate push to remove the frictions at Africa’s borders to facilitate trade, investment, and tourism.
To illustrate the opportunity Africa holds, he highlighted the explosion of Asia’s middle class from 115 million people in 2000 to 1.5 billion in 2020, and projected to reach nearly 3 billion by 2030. “These people want to travel, and where do they want to go? To Africa,” he said. “So please, open the doors.”
The conversation turned interactive with questions from the audience. Melissa Cook, from Africa Sunrise Partners, asked Mahbubani how Africa could overcome its infrastructure, healthcare, and education deficits to achieve a demographic dividend. Mahbubani responded with personal reflections from his childhood in a poor Singapore, recalling how he lived without a flush toilet until the age of 13 and was on a feeding program as an undernourished child. “We didn’t have much, but we made steady improvements. Malaysia and Thailand have shown how healthcare and education can be upgraded incrementally. Africa can do the same,” he said.
Patrick Ogil, Secretary-General of the Association of Miners and Processors, raised concerns about Nigeria’s underutilised barite resources and the challenge of capacity-building in the mining sector. Mahbubani humbly declined to comment in detail, acknowledging that mining is not his area of expertise. “One lesson I’ve learned is if you don’t know enough about a subject, stay quiet. Otherwise, you’ll expose your ignorance,” he said.
In his closing remarks, Mahbubani reminded the audience that despite the cruelty of the world, there are real opportunities Africa can and must take advantage of. “This is not a hopeless time. Look for the opportunities and seize them. That’s how you build a better life for young people,” he concluded.
Oteh summarised the discussion with key takeaways: the need for “trade, not aid,” the importance of detail in national execution, and the transformative power of meritocracy, pragmatism, and honesty. “This truly is Africa’s time,” she said.
