As of the close of trading on June 23, Stanbic IBTC holds the title of the highest-priced banking stock on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), trading at N87 per share. Hot on its heels is GTCO Holdings, with a share price of N83.55.
So far in 2025, GTCO has gained 46.7 percent, while Stanbic has appreciated by 51 percent. These performances make them the two best-performing banking stocks on the NGX this year, raising the question: which of the two will be first to hit the N100 mark?
Speaking during a recent conversation, Ngozi Odum, a banking analyst with Cardinalstone Securities, noted, “The price rally has been fundamentally driven.”
The Fundamentals
GTCO began 2025 with a net profit of N258 billion in Q1, down 43.5 percent year-on-year from the exceptional N457 billion recorded in the same period of 2024. Still, the bank maintained a solid net profit margin of 49.3 percent, only slightly below the prior year’s 67.2 percent.
With an earnings per share (EPS) of N7.84, GTCO is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.63x—well ahead of its Tier-1 peers. For context, UBA trades at 6.52x, Zenith at 6.70x, Access Holdings at 4.59x, and First Bank Holdco at 5.93x. This valuation premium reflects investor confidence in GTCO’s consistency and underlying fundamentals.
In 2024, Nigerian banks were the most profitable entities on the NGX, as Zenith Bank and GTCO became the first publicly listed Nigerian firms to hit the N1 trillion net income mark.
Ngozi noted, “Although the banking index didn’t perform exceptionally last year, the fundamental case for banks were still strong. FY’24 and Q1’25 shows that banks have almost tripled their EPS from FY’22,”
Among the exceptional performers, GTCO continues to set the pace in the Nigerian banking sector across key metrics. At the end of 2024, GTCO posted a Return on Assets of 8.1 percent and a Return on Equity of 48.9 percent, supported by a Capital Adequacy Ratio of 39.3 percent and an industry-leading Cost-to-Income ratio of 23.1 percent. Only 13 percent of its net interest income was provisioned for impairment, underscoring its strong asset quality and operational efficiency. This became even more relevant following the Central Bank’s regulatory forbearance circular.
That same week, GTCO and Stanbic stood out among Nigerian banks as having minimal exposure to Stage 2 loans. Investors responded swiftly: Stanbic gained 9.6 percent, while GTCO surged 19 percent, reflecting increased appreciation for their superior asset quality.
“For GTCO and Stanbic, what stands out the most is the quality of their balance sheet,” Ngozi added.
In terms of returns, GTCO delivered standout performance. Its final dividend of N7.03 for 2024 translated to a dividend yield of 10.5 percent, among the highest on the NGX. For investors who participated in GTCO’s 2024 public offer, the yield hit an impressive 16 percent.
Taken together, these fundamentals strongly support GTCO’s trajectory toward the N100 share price milestone. But Stanbic’s story is no less compelling.
Stanbic’s strength beyond commercial banking
Though its final dividend yield is a more modest 4.8 percent, Stanbic reported a robust 80 percent year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 net income, reaching N82.1 billion. It currently trades at a P/E of 13.92x and a P/B ratio of 1.49x.
Unlike GTCO, Stanbic’s valuation story extends beyond traditional banking. Its upside is closely tied to its broader ecosystem, including dominant positions in asset management, pensions, and stockbroking.
In Q1 2025, Stanbic IBTC Pension Managers, the group’s pension arm, posted a net income of N8.7 billion—up 10.6 percent year-on-year. At the end of FY 2024, it had N111.8 billion in total assets, cementing its position as Nigeria’s largest pension fund administrator.
Meanwhile, Stanbic IBTC Asset Management, which manages 16 mutual funds, including Nigeria’s largest money market fund, has an estimated N2.6 trillion in assets under management (AUM).
When all these business units are consolidated into a single holding group on the NGX, they form one of Nigeria’s most diversified financial powerhouses. The relatively high P/E and low P/B ratios reflect the market’s expectation of future growth from these synergistic business lines.
The N100 threshold: A matter of time?
If GTCO’s stock climbs to N100, it would imply a P/E ratio of 12.76x and a P/B of approximately 8.72x based on current earnings. For Stanbic, the same price target would push its P/E to 16.00x.
While these valuation multiples may appear elevated for banks, they reflect not only current performance but also the strength of both institutions’ forward-looking fundamentals. Another key driver has been the resurgence of foreign portfolio investor (FPI) interest in Nigerian equities in 2025. In the first five months of the year, the NGX recorded N996 billion in foreign transactions—more than double the N458 billion logged during the same period in 2024.
Ngozi noted that GTCO has emerged as a top pick among FPIs. While she clarified that their current models do not assign a N100 price target to either GTCO or Stanbic, this position could change if earnings surpass expectations.
“If they beat our earnings forecast or FPIs reprice them based on EMEA peer averages of 1.1x for GTCO and 1.55x for Stanbic, they could cross N100,” she said.
Investors will be watching H1 2025 earnings closely for signals on which of the two stocks might reach the symbolic N100 threshold first.
