From every indication, it seems that the opposition political parties have not learnt anything from the outcome of the 2023 general election, which could have gone the other way if the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) had managed its internal crises with maturity. In fact, selfish and personal political ambition cost the party the election.
Political calculation has shown that President Ahmed Bola Tinubu wouldn’t have won the election if a Southern candidate had emerged as the PDP flag-bearer other than Atiku Abubakar. Atiku’s emergence at the convention did not go down well with many political actors in the party. Someone like Nyesom Wike, who seriously felt that since the North had produced the National Chairman of the party, it was only fair for a Southerner to become the presidential candidate, more so when President Muhammadu Buhari was about completing his two terms of eight years in office.
As if his emergence was not enough, Atiku added salt to the injury when he went ahead to pick the former governor of Delta State, Ifeanyi Okowa as his running mate. Wike had to gang up with other like-minded governors, who shared his sentiments to support Tinubu’s candidacy. That crisis cost PDP a good number of votes.
Realising that the odds are against him and that he stands no chance in PDP, Peter Obi had quickly defected to the Labour Party where he emerged the party’s presidential candidate. Before the 2023 general election, he knew he had a growing support base both locally, nationally and internationally. He also knew that with this support base, he could spring surprises.
From the final results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), it shows that if Peter Obi had remained in PDP or if Atiku had sacrificed his political ambition and backed the likes of Peter Obi, Tinubu wouldn’t have won in 2023. The simple political calculation is that if we add the 6.98 million valid votes scored by Atiku and the 6.1 million valid votes scored by Peter Obi, it comes to 13.08 million votes, thus 4.2 million votes more than the 8.79 million votes scored by Tinubu.
The three opposition parties – PDP, LP and NNPP played a terrible politics in 2023 that made Tinubu won. Tinubu being a smart and astute politician took advantage of that and quickly got Wike to support his ambition.
The final results of the 2023 general elections in Rivers State showed that APC won in 14 LGAs, the Labour Party won in five, while the PDP won four. From the final collated results, the APC polled 231,591, while the Labour Party scored 175,071 and the People’s Democratic Party got 88,468 to come second and third respectively.
No doubt, PDP failed flat in River’s state in the last general elections and that is one thing the party wouldn’t want to repeat in 2027.
But has PDP and other opposition political parties learnt their lessons after the 2023 general elections? Certainly not! The internal crises and defections rocking the opposition parties ahead of the 2027 election is just worrisome. At a time like this, serious opposition parties that really wanted to wrestle power from the ruling party are neck deep into forming an alliance, putting up a robust manifesto that would endear the masses to them, just like the popular ‘change’ mantra the APC came up with ahead of the 2015 general elections.
Unfortunately, PDP as the main opposition party has been in a protracted crisis. The party has never recovered since it lost the 2023 presidential elections. The other opposition parties such as the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) are in one form of crisis or the other.
The only lone voice of opposition, bold enough to challenge the policies and actions of the ruling party is Mr. Peter Obi. While other notable figures in the opposition such as Alhaji Atiku Abubakar merely express their views through press statements, the likes of Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso have more or less been operating from the background.
If there was ever a time the country needs a virile opposition political party, it is now the ruling party is fast losing steam on governance. The politics of 2027 seems to have taken the centre stage while governance has taken the back stage. The outcry that followed the continuous killings in some parts of the country, especially in Benue and Plateau are clear indications that Nigerians are just fed up with a government that cannot guarantee their safety and protection.
At the moment, opposition parties in Nigeria appear dead just waiting to be buried. While PDP was the ruling party, especially during the time of President Goodluck Jonathan, the All Progressives Congress (APC) was the main opposition party then. The party, through its spokesman, Lai Mohammed, was indeed a thorn in the flesh of the ruling party. It was criticism and counter criticism of government actions and policies. The Jonathan government was constantly kept on its toes; always reminded that the security and welfare of the people must come first. Today, such robust and strong opposition is dead.
Democracy cannot thrive in an atmosphere where there is no strong opposition.
The former Special Adviser to the Governor of Akwa Ibom State on Political and Legislative Affairs, Ekong Sampson said democracy was dead without a strong opposition and pointed out that once a strong opposition was not present in the political setting of any country, the leaders become autocratic, with citizens bearing the brunt of any unpopular government policies.
According to him, “Nigeria needs a virile opposition, not proxy chicanery, to drive the nation’s democracy and strengthen institutions of good governance. True democracy allows for choices and opinions and any efforts to kill opposition in the system indicate a drive towards the elimination of checks and balances; this gives way for a dictatorship.”
Tinubu and APC would be desperate to retain power come 2027 and therefore politicians, who are desperate to be re-elected would continue to defect to the ruling party.
After weeks of speculations and mounting political pressure, the Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Umo Eno has finally defected the APC along with most of his commissioners. This recent development has further weakened the main opposition party to mount any serious challenge ahead if 2027. As it stands today, PDP has not only been shattered and decimated, it has been reduced to a laughing stock and does not have what it takes to win any presidential election except through a coalition.
Having realised their political gaffe in the last election, opposition leaders had agreed to close ranks before the next election in 2027 so as to wrestle power from the APC. Less than two years to the 2027 general elections, the opposition political parties do not look like they are ready yet.
Just like Tinubu and some like-minded politicians came together and formed APC on February 6, 2013, the likes of Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso can replicate what APC did in 2013.
Recall that Muhammadu Buhari ran for president under the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) in 2003 and 2007, and still failed before crossing over to the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) ahead of the 2011 general elections. Notwithstanding that the ANPP was strong in the North, Buhari could not win. The same goes to ACN under Nuhu Ribadu in 2011 in the South West and APGA under the late Odimekwu Ojukwu in 2003 in the South East. It was only when these parties – ACN, ANPP, CPC and some faction of APGA came together to form the APC that Buhari was able to win in 2015.
Nigeria and indeed Nigerians need a formidable and vibrant opposition party that would truly challenge President Bola Tinubu and the ruling party in 2027.
Tinubu has said that he is happy seeing the PDP and other opposition parties in disarray because he knew that would be the only way for him to return in 2027. It would indeed be a tragedy if the country eventually snowballed into a one-party state under President Tinubu.
The PDP 7-man reconciliation committee led by Bukola Saraki has not done much in reconciling aggrieved members of the party since they were set up on May 12, 2025. That committee has the likes of: Governor Dauda Lawal (Zamfara), Governor Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), Governor Peter Mbah (Enugu), Senator Seriake Dickson (Bayelsa West), Senator Ibrahim Dankwambo (Gombe North), and former Governor Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia).
With Nyesom Wike still in PDP, the party will keep going from one crisis to another. The leadership of PDP must, therefore, find a way to deal with Wike, otherwise the party will not be alive to tell its tale.
Before you know it, we are in 2027. That is why the opposition political parties should put their differences aside and come together with a sole mandate to rescue Nigeria and Nigerians.
Going forward, therefore, the opposition needs to revamp its image and structure to appeal to a wider audience. It also needs to build coalitions and form alliances now more than ever before to create a united front against the ruling APC. The time to act decisively is now!
