Climate change is no longer a looming threat, as it presents immediate, intensifying crises both on a global and local scale. This has ramifications for the safety, food security and consequentially, economy of Nigeria. With food costs already being high, anticipated exacerbated scenarios exist, such as erratic rainfall patterns disrupting agriculture in Northern Nigeria. The need to develop strong frameworks for climate management is expedient. Yet, one of the most crucial tools for crafting an effective climate strategy remains underdeveloped: a robust, science-based inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Greenhouses are the primary drivers of global warming, emitted through activities such as fossil fuel combustion, agriculture, and industry. Though climate change is global, these emissions originate locally. A comprehensive framework for accounting for emissions source and quantity inadvertently becomes the cornerstone of any serious climate policy. Countries with reliable data are better positioned to track progress, design targeted interventions, attract climate finance, and engage meaningfully in today’s global carbon economy.
Despite years of pledges and fragmented efforts, Nigeria still lacks the granular, up-to-date data needed to support meaningful climate action. Although the country has submitted National Communications and Biennial Update Reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and revised its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), these efforts rely heavily on outdated data—often pre-2017. Much has changed since 2017. Global CO₂ emissions have continued to rise, and the understanding of how greenhouse gases are produced—and how they must be tracked—has deepened. Methane has come under heightened scrutiny as satellite technologies have made it easier to detect emissions from sources like agriculture, landfills, wetlands, and fossil fuel operations. The shipping sector has also emerged as a growing global contributor to emissions, prompting stricter international monitoring and reporting standards.
Carbon markets have grown significantly over the years, with global market value reaching nearly $950 billion in 2023. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement now enables international carbon trading, but only for countries with credible, up-to-date emissions tracking. Climate finance institutions have also raised the bar, making recent, verifiable data a prerequisite for funding. The share of global emissions covered by carbon pricing has risen from 15 to over 24 percent in just eight years. Countries like Ghana, Kenya, and Rwanda have updated their inventories through 2020 or beyond, unlocking access to partnerships and finance. Nigeria, still reliant on 2017-era data, risks being left behind in this evolving carbon economy. This paucity weakens both domestic credibility and access to climate finance, where transparency and data quality are now essential. At the same time, Nigeria’s forests, wetlands, and rangelands offer major potential for carbon offset projects. But without systems to track and verify emissions reductions, especially at the subnational level, these resources remain economically untapped.
Furthermore, a major weakness in Nigeria’s GHG inventory is its continued reliance on IPCC default emission factors that may inadequately capture the nuances of Nigeria’s energy systems, agricultural practices, or land use dynamics. These efforts signal intent, but they fall short of the actionable intelligence required to confront the policy. These generalised figures do not reflect the country’s specific energy systems, farming practices, waste handling, or land use. For example, emissions from a diesel generator in rural Nigeria may differ significantly from global averages. This disconnect can distort national estimates and lead to poor policy decisions. To address this, Nigeria must invest in country-specific emission factors based on local research, field data, and sectoral realities—an area where universities and technical institutions can play a central role.
Equally limiting is the absence of disaggregated state-level emissions data. Climate policy is implemented locally, but state and regional actors often lack access to the data they need. Emissions in Lagos, shaped by traffic and urban energy demand, are vastly different from those in agrarian states like Nasarawa or Ebonyi. A decentralised inventory system, where states gather and report data using standardised methods, would enable more targeted interventions, stronger accountability, and better alignment with local development goals.
This shift is achievable. Several African countries have strengthened their emissions tracking systems by prioritising political will, interagency coordination, and long-term investment. Nigeria already has the technical and institutional capacity to do the same. What is needed now is not another short-term periodic deliverable but a continuous institutionalised monitoring, reporting, and verification system. On balance, a credible inventory requires sustained collaboration across federal ministries, state governments, research institutions, civil society, and the private sector. It calls for investment in localised data systems, standardised tools, and long-term capacity. As the world moves from pledges to performance, Nigeria must decide whether to lead or lag. Without accurate, location-aware data, the country is navigating the climate crisis with blind spots. To act effectively, we must first measure what matters—when and where it happens.
