The plot by opposition politicians to form a united front to unseat incumbent President Bola Tinubu re-election appears to be gaining steam in recent weeks, as the race towards the 2027 general election begins.
Led by Atiku Abubakar, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), presidential candidate in the 2023 election, Nasir El-Rufai, former Kaduna State governor, Peter Obi presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 general election, the opposition leaders have promised to give the ruling APC a run for its money and change the political narratives.
With the two leading opposition parties, the PDP and LP enmeshed in crisis, it is not clear which political platform the coalition plan to use to contest the 2027 elections, however, the coalition planners are consulting and discussing the direction of the group.
Observers say with the coalition composition, largely made up of opposition politicians and aggrieved members of the ruling party, who have lost out in the power equation and with its sole aim to win power, there was a chance it could derail on its objectives.
To some, it is a composition of strange bedfellows.
This has raised concerns among many Nigerians and political watchers, whether the coalition plan to unseat the current administration is driven by the interest of the nation or rather to actualise personal ambition and interest.
Many citizens are simply unfazed by the criticism of President Tinubu’s administration by coalition members and opposition politicians, simply to settle political scores, to influence public perception of the administration.
This is even when it is obvious some of these politicians had failed in the past when they had opportunity to lead, either as governor or in other positions.
Citizens want leaders and governments that can offer solutions to governance and national issues by implementing policies that address these challenges, such as promoting transparency, fighting poverty, strengthening the rule of law, and fostering citizen participation.
“Personally, I don’t believe that the on-going efforts to form the coalition are genuinely driven by the interest of the nation. From what we’ve seen so far and what we know of Nigerian politicians, it’s largely about self-interest and political survival, not a sincere desire to secure power to reposition Nigeria for the better”, Hameed Muritala, a media and development practitioner said.
Thus, there are worries that the coalition is composed of politicians, who have held public office and failed in the past, inflicting untold hardship on their people without apology.
The fear among many citizens is that nothing may change, even if the coalition is able to defeat and dislodge President Tinubu from the Aso-Rock villa in 2027.
“The coalition in all forms is yet to define itself on a particular policy purpose. Nobody should be easily moved, this is because; Nigeria’s have seen that political parties and the gladiators are self-centred and focus on personal aggrandisement”, Kunle Okunade, political analyst told BusinessDay.
Okunade, noted that any coalition that is not centred on promoting the people’s interest may likely not gain the support and sympathy of the voters.
Speaking, Femi Adewale, lawyer and politician, said it was imperative that the coalition give young Nigerians opportunity, because the present crop of politicians have failed the nation.
“For me, I would be happy if I can see young Nigerians given an opportunity either as governor, or key positions if the coalition wins in 2027”, Adewale said.
Adewale further noted that the country had seen Atiku, Amaechi others rule, where they largely failed.
“That is the only way we can move forward, some of them have been around since 1979”.
However, Ladipo Johnson, lawyer and National Publicity Secretary of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), said the opposition have a right to coalesce together to present a stronger, more viable option to the people of Nigeria.
According to him, “So far, I haven’t heard of anyone in the opposition talking about “snatching” power. On the contrary I have seen a video of Mr. President talking about snatching power, grabbing it and running with it!
“If I had told you just two weeks to the presidential election of 2015 that President Jonathan would lose the election, you would have thought I was insane. With that in mind, you know that anything is possible in 2027.”
Tinubu can’t be defeated without coalition
Despite fears among citizens about the capacity of the Atiku’s led coalition to tackle the mirage of problems bedevilling the nation, there is general agreement among observers that President Tinubu can’t be defeated in 2027 without a coalition.
With the major opposition in crisis and with the wave of defections of key politicians to the ruling party, analysts say the current political parties are too fragmented and lack the capacity to defeat the incumbent.
“I do believe that a well-structured and strategic coalition is the most likely pathway to unseat the incumbent president in 2027. We all saw the power of coalition in 2015 when the sitting president was defeated by the newly formed APC”, Muritala added.
He noted that a major hurdle lies in the fact that many governors and other bigwigs in the opposition PDP, appear not keen on the coalition idea, stressing that their lack of commitment could undermine whatever momentum the coalition is trying to build.
President Tinubu administration midway into his four years administration, assumed power on the mantra of the Renew Hope Agenda, promised so much, especially tackling the country’s age-log security challenge, tackling poverty and ending the power crisis among others.
However, despite bold reforms in the economy and ending the controversial fuel subsidy scheme, many citizens say the administration has failed to fulfil campaign promises.
Tinubu’s reforms have led to cost-of-living since he assumed office in 2023. Inflation is at 23.71% in April according to the NBS. Similarly, insecurity in Northern Nigeria has worsened with the President’s popularity waning in the region.
Key opposition politicians said it was imperative that the nation be rescued in 2027, accusing Tinubu and the APC as one of the most incompetent, disconnected, and anti-people governments in Nigeria’s democratic history.
The opposition coalition accused the Tinubu-led federal government of plunging Nigeria deeper into poverty, inflating the national debt to record levels, and prioritising elite interests over the needs of ordinary citizens.
A former presidential spokesperson for the Labour Party, Kenneth Okonkwo, said that no single candidate can defeat President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
He said the only choice before the opposition leaders in the country is a coalition.
He, however, made it clear that failure to form the coalition would make Tinubu unbeatable, adding that the President will return to power outrightly, he will just walk into it.
Okonkwo strongly believes that no one single candidate can win Tinubu in 2027.
“Because in Nigeria, we have entered into the unfortunate that you will not only win but you have to secure your victory.”
He added that if the elites can come together like they did in 2014 to confront Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, they will unseat Tinubu in 2027.
