The renewed killings and attacks in key food-belt states have sparked concerns over the possibility of a new wave of food price hikes which could worsen cost-of-living crisis.
Experts say the attacks, which have claimed several lives, particularly in Benue, Zamfara and Plateau, could strain the country’s food supply, push up food prices and exacerbate economic pressures on households.
Ibrahim Kabiru, president of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), said the recent insecurity issues in key food-producing states will disrupt the country’s food production and spike food prices.
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“The respite Nigerians have experienced in food prices will be upturned with these recent attacks on farmers and farming communities,” Kabiru said.
He projected the country’s food prices to start surging in July, noting that the continuous attacks have made farmers apprehensive.
“Farmers have become apprehensive, and this is a major factor in the availability of food, along with climate change,” he added.
In February, food prices eased for the first since December 2022 on improved supply and security across key-crop producing states.
However, the country’s security situation worsened by the renewed killings since March.
No fewer than 1,460 people have been killed in January through May, according to a BusinessDay’s compilation of media reports on the attacks. The attacks have claimed at least 202 lives in 40 days in Benue, Plateau and Zamfara states.
“Farmers are fleeing for safety as several communities have been destroyed by the renewed attacks,” David Yarkwan, a farmer in Benue State, told BusinessDay.
“We are still in the planting season and several farmers might not return to the farms soon because of these attacks,” he further said.
According to him, Benue – the country’s food basket – is estimated to grow over 15 percent of Nigeria’s total food production.
Food inflation in Africa’s most populous country dipped for three consecutive months to 21.79 percent in March from 39.84 in December 2024.
According to experts, the worsening attacks on key crop-producing states might reverse the trend if the country fails to tackle the issue.
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“If nothing is done regarding insecurity, we will see a hike in food prices and a decline in production,” said Chinasa Anonye, national secretary of the Small Scale Women Farmers Association of Nigeria (SWOFON).
Agriculture makes up one-quarter of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). It is the sector that can revive the country’s economy and generate revenue due to its enormous opportunities for job creation.
But to achieve this, there must be adequate security for farmers to carry out their activities without any form of fear and commercial farming must be encouraged, analysts say.
“Women farmers are now afraid to go to their farms because of fear of being raped or killed,” Anonye said.
Sani Danladi, secretary of Tomato Growers, Processors and Marketers Association of Nigeria, explained that some farmers in Zamfara are now in search of new businesses. “They cannot return to the farms with the same ease as they used to,” he noted.
“We don’t know what our production will be like this coming season, but with the way many farmers have been killed and displaced, food production will fall,” he said from his Kadawa farm in Kano.
High input costs and the impact of climate change are hurting Nigeria’s agricultural production, and any loss of farmland or harvest will play an even bigger role in worsening food insecurity in the country, experts say.
In March, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) said 30.6 million people in Nigeria would face acute food insecurity from June to August 2025 lean season – a period when stocks are depleted and food prices reach their peaks.
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The FAO 2025 report said that the state of insecurity in northern Nigeria plays a major role in the projected rate of food insecurity in the country.
“Drivers to this escalating food insecurity in Nigeria include sustained insecurity due to the insurgency and communal clashes, economic hardship and shocks and climate hazards,” the FAO report said.
