President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs announcement on imports from China and other major trading partners is not just a U.S. campaign promise—it’s a potential earthquake for global trade. If implemented, it would escalate trade tensions, disrupt supply chains, and force emerging markets to recalibrate their economic strategies. Nowhere will the impact be more profound than in Africa, particularly in Nigeria and the nascent African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Trump’s tariff plan is framed as a protectionist measure designed to boost American manufacturing and reduce dependence on foreign imports. However, history suggests that such aggressive policies tend to spark retaliatory measures, further fragmenting global trade. The last time Trump imposes steep tariffs, China responded in kind, deepening trade hostilities. This time, a broader blanket tariff could trigger countermeasures from Europe, China, and even developing economies, leading to a global slowdown.
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Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, is deeply embedded in global trade dynamics. While the country is not a direct target of U.S. tariffs, the secondary effects could be significant:
1. Commodity price volatility: Nigeria relies on oil for over 90 percent of its export revenue . If a U.S.-China trade war escalates, it could slow global economic growth, reducing demand for oil and pushing prices downward. This would worsen Nigeria’s already fragile fiscal situation.
2. Weakened naira and inflation: A global trade slowdown could strengthen the U.S. dollar while making imports more expensive for Nigeria. Given the country’s reliance on imported goods—from machinery to food—this could exacerbate inflation, further squeezing consumers.
3. Manufacturing and supply chain disruptions: Many Nigerian manufacturers depend on Chinese raw materials and machinery. Higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods may drive up costs, affecting Nigeria’s ability to source affordable industrial inputs.
4. Reduced investment flows: If trade tensions disrupt global markets, risk-averse investors may scale back on investments in emerging economies like Nigeria, tightening capital flows when they are needed most.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), launched in 2021, is Africa’s most ambitious economic integration project. It aims to create a $3.4 trillion market by removing intra-African trade barriers. However, its success depends on stable global trade conditions. Supply Chain Disruptions: Many African economies, including those within AfCFTA, source goods and machinery from China. If Chinese exports become more expensive, it could slow industrialisation efforts across the continent. Global investors might hesitate to commit to Africa if economic uncertainty rises, preferring to keep capital in safer, more predictable markets. If Trump extends his protectionist policies beyond China, African exports—especially those benefiting from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)-could face new barriers, limiting access to the American market.
While Trump’s tariff policies pose challenges, they also highlight the urgency for Africa to strengthen intra-continental trade and reduce dependency on external markets.
1. Accelerate AfCFTA implementation: African nations should fast-track trade facilitation reforms, harmonise regulations, and eliminate bureaucratic bottlenecks to boost regional commerce.
2. Diversify industrial and trade partners: Nigeria and other African economies must deepen trade relations with alternative markets, including the European Union, Middle East, and South America, to mitigate reliance on the U.S. and China.
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3. Strengthen local manufacturing: Instead of relying on imported machinery and industrial inputs, African governments should incentivize domestic production and technology transfer partnerships.
4. Engage in global trade diplomacy: African leaders should proactively engage in trade negotiations with the U.S. and China to ensure they are not merely collateral damage in a larger economic war.
Trump’s tariff strategy—could redefine the structure of global trade. While major economies may retaliate with counter-tariffs, emerging markets like Nigeria have fewer options. Rather than waiting to react, African nations must take proactive steps to strengthen regional trade, boost industrialisation, and reduce dependency on volatile global markets. The AfCFTA, if implemented effectively, could serve as Africa’s best defense against external trade shocks. But time is running out. The continent must act decisively, or risk being caught in the crossfire of another geopolitical trade war—one that could set back Africa’s economic ambitions for years to come.
Victor Liman is the former Chief Trade Negotiator of Nigeria and Acting Director General, Nigerian Office for Trade Negotiations. He was also the Head and Trade Commissioner, Nigeria Regional Investment and Trade Office, Shanghai, China, with a concurrent mandate to oversee the South Asian countries’ trade relations with Nigeria. vboffiong@gmail.com (+234 90300 5257)
