In a democracy, a general election is a referendum on the status quo. The incumbent says that things are okay or getting better and we need to stay on course. The opposition says that things are not okay and we need a change or changes so that things can get better. When things are not okay or when the incumbent and his team are seen not to be performing well, the tendency is that the opposition will win. Thus, opposition politicians usually campaign on the platform of “change” or some variant of it. It works in many cases when most voters find the status quo undesirable. This is what happened on March 28, 2015 and April 11, 2015 when the APC not only won the presidency but also took control of both the Senate and House of Representatives as well as xx out of 36 states of the federation, thus ending the 16-year rule and domination by the PDP and its dream to rule Nigeria for 50 years! The daunting task before the APC now is how to implement the “change” it promised and satisfy the electorate, so that it can retain control after its current four-year mandate. The party and the new president have been inundated with suggestions on what changes to implement and how to implement them. However, most of the suggestions have not been based on the theory, experience and best practices of socio-economic and political change management. Cynics have argued that there is very little that Buhari can do to change Nigeria and that he is doomed to fail because he will be operating under a democracy where there are checks and balances, and because Nigeria is essentially “unreformable”. With determined and effective leadership, change is possible and happens under democratic governments. In fact, political history is replete with “democratic revolutionaries” who have implemented fundamental changes or “democratic revolutions” in their countries even within the constraints of democracy.
Change
When a politician promises “change” during an election, it means that he is going to do certain things differently or he is going to transform or modify or alter certain things and the end result will be better than the status quo. The change process involves transitioning from a state or position A (status quo) to state B (ideal/target) and the difference (B – A) is the change. Moving from A to B will obviously take some time and will require planning, resources and several steps. It is also important to track, monitor and evaluate the movement or transition by using specific performance indicators (metrics) to ensure that the transition is progressing well. It is also important for the results to be sustainable. That is, once state B is achieved it must be maintained or improved upon so that the system does not slide back to state A.
The promised “Change” is normally made up of many changes. A politician will not win an election if he promises only one change. Voters expect several changes as part of the Change platform. For instance, the Nigerian voters expect the new president to significantly reduce corruption, significantly improve security (i.e., reduce kidnappings and armed robberies, and eliminate Boko Haram and other insurgencies), end the perennial fuel scarcity, improve public governance (transparency, accountability, performance, effectiveness and efficiency), significantly improve the reliability of public electricity supply, and improve public infrastructure – roads, water supply, sanitation, etc. All these and more should form part of a comprehensive Change Agenda. Each of these elements of the Agenda will require several implementation steps. The various changes cannot be implemented in one fell swoop or simultaneously without “overheating” the economy and polity. Therefore, sequencing of the changes is required. In order words, the change agenda must be effectively managed. Change management deals with the identification of the various changes that have to be made and the steps involved in each, how these changes will be implemented, the sequencing of the changes and steps, harmonization of the changes, identification of the resources for implementing the changes, behavioural change communication during the process, monitoring and evaluation of the changes taking place, and ensuring that positive and sustainable results are achieved at the end. A “Change Czar” reporting to the president may be required to coordinate the changes and overall management process.
Democratic changes or revolutions in the United States
The history of the United States (US) is replete with presidents who have implemented fundamental changes – which I will call “democratic revolutions” – in the country and overseas. The first case is that of Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR), the 32nd president of the US who won a record four presidential elections ruling from March 1993 to April 1945 when he died in office. Even though he had lost the use of his legs due to polio in 1921, FDR won the Democratic Party presidential ticket to contest the 1932 elections. In his acceptance speech, he laid the foundation for his Change Agenda when he stated: “I pledge you, I pledge myself to a New Deal for the American people…. This is more than a political campaign.” He went on to defeat the incumbent Republican President Herbert Hoover in the November 1932 election at the depth of the Great Depression. The voters expected him to deliver changes that will pull the country out the depression and improve their lives. After he was sworn into office in March 1933, FDR and the Democratic Party formed the New Deal coalition by mobilizing the poor as well as organized labour, ethnic minorities, urbanites, and Southern whites.
During his first 100 days in office, FDR spearheaded major legislations and issued several executive orders that instituted the New Deal which included several programmes designed to produce relief (government jobs for the unemployed), recovery (economic growth), and reform (through regulation of Wall Street, banks and transportation). He also created numerous programmes to support the unemployed and farmers, and to encourage labour union growth. He worked with Congress to repeal the Prohibition and this added to his popularity and helped him to win re-election by a landslide in 1936.
Emmanuel Ojameruaye
