The prospects for economic transformation, prosperity and sustainable development will depend to a large extent on the political will, strength of character, sincerity of purpose and strong commitment of the leadership – much more than the mere vision statements or contents of economic policies – in terms of bold, pragmatic and effective implementation of the economic reform agenda.
At this juncture, let me serve a note of caution to the new government which, considering the present dire financial straits of the country, may want to be tempted to go for external borrowings/foreign loans, especially from the Bretton Woods institutions. While bilateral loans/foreign assistance from friendly countries may be considered purely on their economic merits and national interests, the government must avoid the temptation of externally-imposed multilateral financial institutions such as World Bank/IMF’s ‘prescriptions’ of “wrenching structural adjustment and devastating austerity measures”. We, as a nation, have travelled this tenuous route before with the concomitant unsalutary impact on the economy.
The need to avoid the dictated terms and “conditionalities” of the IMF, especially for a developing country like ours, has been further espoused by Paul Volcker and Toyo Gyohten in their book ‘Changing Fortunes’ in which they underscored the double standard of IMF’s crisis resolution. As they put it, “When the [International Monetary] Fund consults with a poor and weak country, the country gets in line. When it consults with a strong country, the Fund gets in line.”
I strongly believe that if the new government can effectively tackle corruption and plug all the inherent loopholes, wastages and leakages in the economy, the country should be able to mobilise enough internally generated resources without having to succumb to the temptation of external loan with the attendant prohibitive cost of a potential debt trap and untoward consequences on the long-term development of the economy. In this regard, Nigeria can learn from the experiences of the “Asian Tigers”, especially their type of home-grown structural adjustment reforms undertaken without external borrowings, which have culminated in their spectacular economic performances and competiveness today – from their hitherto crisis-torn, inflation-ridden economies. The new government should, therefore, be able to manage and resolve the “tension between short-term palliatives and commitment to a long-term strategy” of economic reforms, without external borrowings, if we are to rebuild our ailing economy along the lines of sustainable development.
Finally, as Buhari assumes office as Nigeria’s president come May 29, 2015, he must avoid the euphoria of change voyeurism and realise that the change Nigerians desire and have been yearning for is not a mere cosmetic change for the sake of change, nor a symbolic, momentary change of political power at the Presidential Villa! What Nigerians expect from the Buhari administration is a visible, fundamental change that will positively impact on their lives in terms of stable and uninterrupted electricity power supply, functional and affordable education at all levels, employment generation for the teeming jobless youths, good network of roads and integrated mode of transportation system, efficient and modern public infrastructure, well-equipped hospitals and affordable health-care system, access to potable water supply, adequate and affordable housing and food supply, security of lives and property, including the protection of citizens from internal and external aggression, defeat and routing of Boko Haram out of the country including the return of the kidnapped Chibok girls, visible and drastic reduction in the poverty level and gap between the rich and the poor, stemming of the rising inflation rate, enhanced value of the naira, improved economic, business and investment climate, elimination of corruption, especially in the public sector and government at all levels, institution of good governance and democratic tenets, visionary leadership and an egalitarian society where the rule of law, justice, fairness, equity, peace and progress shall prevail.
KAYODE OLUWA
