For months, tempers have run high and words of caution have come from all corners of the world on the need for violence-free general election in Nigeria. Notable personalities across the world have either visited Nigeria or sent representatives to advise political parties, politicians and their supporters against courting activities that could plunge the country into anarchy during and after the elections. The most recent was the pep words from Barrack Obama, president of the United States of Nigeria, who pleaded with all citizens of Nigeria to give peace a chance by conducting themselves in orderly manner this time around.
Before now, there had been predictions that Nigeria would cease to be an entity in 2015. As the bell for the general election tolled, Nigerians were reminded of that prediction and have been sufficiently warned to ensure that they steer clear of any action or inaction that is capable of bringing to fulfilment such prediction. But, despite the warnings and pieces of advice, politicians appear to be doing everything possible to drag the country into trouble.
For instance, campaigns of various political parties had witnessed hate speeches and outright abuse of opponents. The media have been awash with sponsored provoking documentaries on opponents. Supporters of political parties and various candidates had also threatened fire and brimstone if the elections did not favour their candidates. Students of Literature, who are familiar with the historical assassination of Julius Caesar as enumerated in Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar, would recall that going by that account, Caesar did not die out of ignorance but by his inability to heed advice.
Before Caesar went to the theatre of Pompey to attend the Senate meeting, he had been given advice not to go, but he did not listen. There was a warning, and there was, as it were, a sheer display of arrogance by Caesar. Here is a relevant passage: Caesar: Who is it in the press that calls on me? I hear a tongue shriller than all the music; cry ‘Caesar’; Speak, Caesar is turned to hear. Soothsayer: Beware the ides of March. Caesar: What man is that? Brutus: A soothsayer bids you beware the ides of March.
The Soothsayer (Spurinna), according to commentaries, had on February 15, said he found a bad omen, a bull without a heart. After that, he told Caesar to beware for the next 30 days, not just on the ides of March. It was a calculated assessment of Rome’s political climate at the time. On that very day, Caesar, exuding confidence and trying to prove the Soothsayer a liar, called out to him while on his way to the theatre of Pompey, and said: “The ides of March are come.” The Soothsayer responded: “Ay, Caesar, but not gone.”
Ides of March was a date on the Roman calendar (Idus Martias) corresponding with our date of March 15. It is a term used to note the middle of a month. But since the assassination of Caesar on that day in the month of March, writers allude to it as a fateful date. Before handing Caesar the warning, the Soothsayer must have, by other means beyond the realms of terrestrial, critically looked into the political situation of Rome at the time. He knew that those who were masquerading around Caesar were blood-sucking vampires claiming to be friends and patriotic citizens of Rome.
The Soothsayer also knew that personal ambition was the overriding factor in the mind of the conspirators and that Caesar had no friend among the so- called nobles. Today, the Nigerian nation is no better. Those who trumpet to love the country are the very people that have left it bruised and stunted over the years. Many of those who have been mounting the campaign podiums in various states across the country are the real enemies of the state. Those who have, like the Soothsayer, critically examined the goings-on in the polity, have continued to issue stern warning to the political practitioners to take proper preventive and corrective measures to prevent an avoidable tragedy which could be set off by the do-or-die ambition of most of them.
The increasing incidences of destruction and mayhem visited on rival supporters of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are becoming very alarming. Observers say they are pointers to an impending chaos. Before the postponement of the elections dates, politicians had severally been warned to beware of this period to avoid working toward the disintegration of the country. Watchers of Nigerian politics, say the increasing alarm over alleged plan by the military to take over is something the Federal Government and politicians should guard against.
It is public knowledge that most of the problems the country is currently facing were hatched in the military era and Nigeria is struggling to wean itself of them all. Analysts believe that the elevation of ethnic and religious sentiments to a frightening level as it is currently is also terrifying to the point that they are capable of breeding chaos in society. Explaining the disintegration theory being propounded by certain people against Nigeria, Bola Akinterinwa, a professor and director general, Nigeria Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), during a recent televised interview, said: “Right from two, three years ago, when it was first meaningfully discussed that Nigeria might disintegrate in 2015, a lot of suspicion arose because a lot of scholars and American observers drew attention that there will be disintegration.
“At what point this will occur we do not know. The ‘Washingtonian’ government made it clear that the observation was not governmental, but that of observers. What would happen thereafter was what the late Muammar Gaddafi would say that the only solution to Nigeria’s political problem is to have Nigeria divided into Muslim north and Christian south. Now, is there any linkage between Libya and America? We don’t know. “We are yet to focus on that particular area.
But now the issue is that already the foundation that was initially laid is that there might be a disintegration that might have informed America’s position or analysis is that an agreement was reached in 1914 for amalgamation and it was expected to come to an end in 2014. “So, logically for any good analyst, with the situational reality on ground in Nigeria, it might be difficult to re-negotiate 1914 agreement and that means Nigeria will disintegrate, but it doesn’t work that way.
What will complicate or introduce a new dimension into Nigeria’s situation is the intensification of Boko Haram in Nigeria.” President Goodluck Jonathan, candidate of the PDP in Saturday’s presidential election, hails from the south-south geo-political zone where militants had in the past disrupted oil exploration activities over allegations of neglect of the Niger Delta by successive governments. In 2007, Jonathan won election as vice president to the late President Umaru Yar’Adua. Upon the demise of Yar’Adua, Jonathan became an acting president. He was to become a substantive president through the intervention of the Senate which invoked the “doctrine of necessity”.
In 2011, he contested the presidency and won. Ever since, certain elements of the North have continued to accuse him of short-changing the north. They said it was unfair for Jonathan to have blocked their chance since the PDP, the platform that produced both Yar’Adua and Jonathan, believes in rotational presidency. The failure of Buhari in 2011 to win the presidential election elicited a wide spread civil disobedience, particularly in parts of North, which claimed the lives of several innocent citizens.
As Nigeria goes to the polling units tomorrow, neither the South-South nor the North is comfortable with losing the election. The question is, will Nigeria heed warnings from well-meaning people across the globe to give peace a chance? Indeed, the ides of March is here!
