It’s not only Nigerians who have a decision to make this weekend. An influential band of foreigners from London to New York to Tokyo will be casting their vote too on Nigeria’s future.
Welcome to the world of big-money managers: The people who control hundreds of billions of dollars in rich-nation savings will help decide whether Nigeria follows the path of high-growth developing economies like India, China and Brazil – or remains more like, well, Nigeria.
I met with 10 of these money men (yes, they are predominantly male) to research my book on the developing countries they know as the “frontier markets”. I travelled across four continents to the countries these top-performing investors consider to hold the best potential.
On my journey, I witnessed state-administered violence and corruption, even a beheading. I saw regions devastated by civil war. I was held in police detention for taking a photograph. But my travels from communist regime to Islamic theocracy to nascent democracy also brought me in contact with the most inspirational advocates for change – from slum dwellers to multi-billionaire entrepreneurs – people fighting to improve the living standards of those around them.
From Kenya via Myanmar, Romania, Argentina and Vietnam – where I was accompanied by the 78-year-old veteran emerging markets investor, Mark Mobius – I finally arrived in Abuja. There I met with Kevin Daly, who invests $13 billion for Aberdeen Asset Management. We called in on the finance minister, the central bank, the presidency, and on to the headquarters of Dangote, along with banks and brokers across Lagos. Conversations flowed from the shanty dwellers in Makoko to the land reclamation developers at Eko Atlantic for a warts-and-all portrait of deep despair and great hope.
Kevin, one of the investment world’s biggest Nigeria optimists, then flew back to London. Within a few months he’d sold most of his Nigeria assets. He wasn’t the only one. The Boko Haram insurgency and election-related turmoil had conspired with the economic shock from collapsing oil prices to send Nigerian assets and the naira into free fall.
Yet, Kevin is still watching – and waiting. For him, and others like him, Nigeria is impossible to ignore. Across all of the 10 countries I journeyed through, nowhere comes closer to resembling the characteristics of the high-growth emerging economies of the past – the likes of India and China.
The United Nations projects Nigeria’s population will surpass America’s by 2050 to become the world’s third largest. But, unlike aging China, Nigeria also has one of the highest proportions of under-15s, a future workforce to propel the economy. It’s the reason that after our travels, this group of big-name money men ranked Nigeria as the single most compelling long-term investment destination.
Like Kevin, however, they’re waiting on the sidelines – waiting to pour their billions into helping build industries, housing, hospitals and power grids.
The simple truth is most couldn’t give two hoots who wins the presidential election. They’re looking for one thing on March 28: stability.
Gavin Serkin
