The 2013 budget projects that the Federal Government retained revenue of N4.10 trillion ($25.9bn), which would represent increases of 15.1 percent and 20.4 percent on the 2012 budget and the provisional out-turn for the previous year, respectively.
Our chart shows steady increases in collection other than 2009, for which the sharply lower oil price was largely responsible. Yet the increase forecast for this year does not impress when we recall that nominal GDP will rise by a minimum of 15 percent and that policy makers would be hoping for an expansion of the formal (taxed) economy at the expense of the informal.
We have to report a challenge from the data in that the budget projections show the split between oil and non-oil
revenue in Federal Government retained revenue, while the CBN’s quarterly reports make the same distinctions for gross federation account revenue.
The split for Federal Government retained revenue includes its independent revenue, which comprises 26.2 percent of the non-oil sub-total in the budget projections.
We find the gross (historic) figures more useful. Collections amounted to 25.5 percent of GDP in 2012 and non-oil collections just 5.8 percent.
The International Oil Companies would have us believe that the current version of the petroleum industry bill will sharply increase the tax take. Our concern is more the low, although rising, collection from the rapidly growing non-oil economy.
