The All Progressives Congress (APC) is set to conduct its presidential primary election at a special convention holding at the Eagle Square, Abuja between Monday and Wednesday, June 6-8, 2022.
The exercise presents the APC with the arduous task of getting right the choice of a candidate that leads it to victory in the 2023 race for the Nigerian presidency. If the leadership decides to foist a candidate on members in an arrogant manner, it could backfire. Nigerians are watching with keen interest what would be the outcome of the primary.
Twenty-three (23) aspirants were screened by the John Odigie-Oyegun-led screening committee.
Those screened were Bola Tinubu, former Lagos state governor; Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Senate President Ahmad Lawan; Kayode Fayemi, Ekiti state governor; Godswill Akpabio, former minister of Niger Delta Affairs; Yahaya Bello, governor of Kogi state and Oladimeji Bankole, former Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Others are; Tein Jack-Rich, President/ Founder of Belemaoil and Belema Aid Foundation; Ogbonnaya Onu, former minister of Science, Technology and Innovation; Ben Ayade, Cross River state governor; Ikeobasi Mokelu, former minister of Information; Rotimi Amaechi, former Minister of Transportation, Emeka Nwajiuba, former Minister of State for Education and Governor David Umahi of Ebonyi state.
Also screened were Ahmed Yerima, former governor of Zamfara; Ibikunle Amosun, former Governor of Ogun state; Uju Kennedy, only female aspirant; Tunde Bakare, Nicholas Felix; Ken Nnamani, former President of the Senate president, Ajayi Borroffice, deputy senate leader and Mohammed Abubakar-Badaru governor of Jigawa State.
However, while submitting the report of the panel Friday, Odigie-Oyegun said 10 aspirants had been disqualified, although names of the affected persons and the reason for their disqualification were not disclosed until the filing of this report.
Most of these presidential aspirants had and are still wooing delegates to nominate them as APC presidential candidate as the party is yet to adopt any mode of primary, direct, indirect and consensus.
President Muhammadu Buhari has blown the air of uncertainty amongst the aspirants, party leaders and political observers when he sought to be allowed to choose his successor unhindered.
President Buhari at a meeting with the governors last Tuesday told them that he would want to pick his successor and needed the governors to support him to do so.
“In keeping with the established internal policies of the Party and as we approach the Convention in a few days, therefore, I wish to solicit the reciprocity and support of the Governors and other stakeholders in picking my successor, who would fly the flag of our party for election into the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2023,” he said.
After dropping what could be conveniently called “bombshell,” the President jetted off for Madrid, Spain on an official visit to Spanish President, Pedro Sanchez on the same day.
The APC governors to whom the Buhari’s message was directed, thereafter, held two meetings after the parley; first at the Kebbi State Governor’s Lodge, Abuja and later at the Aso Rock residence of Abdullahi Adamu, the APC National Chairman, which all ended in deadlock.
At the first meeting, it was gathered that the governors were divided on their choice of a presidential candidate.
Sources at the meeting hinted that the governors proposed to nominate two of their colleagues, one each for South and North since Buhari had not narrowed his choice to an individual.
“We believe the president has not settled for any particular person and that is why some governors felt the best thing to do was to nominate two of us (one each from the north and south) to the president for consideration,” the source said.
It was also gathered that many northern governors argued that no southern governor could defeat Atiku Abubakar, the PDP presidential candidate, at the polls and that the north should be given preference.
At the Aso Rock meeting too, BusinessDay learnt there was no agreement as Adamu even joined forces with some northern governors that APC presidential candidate should be picked from the north.
Nonetheless, sources said four northern governors; Umar Ganduje of Kano, Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa, Sani Bello of Niger and Simon Lalong of Plateau supported the emergence of southern presidential candidate.
Though APC has not officially zoned its presidential ticket to the south, the election of Adamu from the north was an indication that the slot goes to south.
Buhari’s inclination to choose a successor was challenged by Salihu Lukman, APC national vice chairman North-west, who warned that it would be risky for the president to choose a successor without inputs from loyal party leaders and members.
Lukman in an open letter to the President titled: ‘Succession and 2023 APC Presidential Candidate’, said the issue was sensitive with very high potential to diminish and damage Buhari’s revered status in the country.
“Noting that the current phenomena of poor relations between predecessors and successor governors are largely a product of poorly instituted political succession arrangement in the country, which is impulsive and imposing, it will be highly risky to adopt the same succession framework as it can erode all your lifelong achievements as someone who contribute a lot to strengthen Nigerian democracy,” he said.
Another signal that APC is going into the primary divided is the insistence on Thursday by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, one of the frontrunners that his sacrifices to the party can only be rewarded with the presidential ticket.
The former governor of Lagos State had declared in Abeokuta, Ogun State, while addressing the party’s delegates that it was payback time having facilitated the emergence of President Buhari and Osinbajo as Vice President, and that the only thing they could use to compensate him for the sacrifices made is to make him President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
“If not for me that stood behind Buhari he wouldn’t have become the president. He tried the first time, he failed, the second time, he failed, the third time, he failed, he even wept on a national television and vowed never to contest again but I went to meet him in Kaduna and told him he will run again, I will stand by you and you will win, but you must not joke with Yorubas and he agreed.
“Since he became the president, I have never got ministerial slots, I didn’t collect any contract, I have never begged for anything from him, it is the turn of Yoruba, it is my turn,” he said.
Since the emergence of Atiku as the presidential candidate of PDP, there have been subtle moves within the APC to also concede its ticket to north which is being touted as the only bait to win votes from the region which always bring high number of votes.
A support group, South-east Front
for a presidential aspirant, Lawan from the North-east as Atiku, made no pretence about the move.
South-east Front in a communiqué’ issued at the end of a meeting signed by representatives from each of the South East states said the nomination of Atiku Abubakar from North-east as the presidential candidate of PDP necessitated the need for the APC to follow suit with Lawan.
“After an extensive analysis of the political developments in Nigeria today with a view to the outcome of the PDP primary election a few days ago, the mood of the nation and of course the expectation of our people that power would shift to the Southern part of Nigeria in 2023 where even our South West and South-South brothers would have had the conscience to cede the contest of the Nigeria’s President to the South East considering the enormous sacrifices the South East had made in support of both zones who took a shot at the presidency at different times since 1999.
“It has become apparent that PDP has once again laid ambush for our party, the APC by choosing it’s candidate from the North East instead of the South East. We believe that this is compelling and still within the confines of equity and fairness considering the fact that neither North East nor South Eastern parts of the country had produced a president in the history of our country.
“With this power convolution in mind, we the people of the Southeast do hereby call on our amiable President Muhamadu Buhari (GCFR), our great party the All Progressives Congress (APC), all delegates to the presidential primary election to consider and choose Senator Dr. Ahmed Lawan as the candidate of our party for the 2023 Presidential election, being that the PDP has chosen it’s Presidential candidate from the North East Zone,” it said.
Lawan is the only APC presidential aspirant from the north-east as the other northern co-contestants; Badaru and Yerima are North-west like Buhari while Yahaya Bello is from north-central.
Pundits say that the outcome of the primary is capable of causing an implosion in the party. They point to the tempers that are already flaring with the tough talks from Tinubu and some others who may feel hard-done-by at the end of the day.
“From what I can see now, our great party may not remain the same. If they give the ticket to Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, they would have declared an open war between him and Tinubu as the Jagaban would see it as backstabbing. He can work against the party in the South West, at least to prove that he still pulls some strings. It is a dicey situation I must confess,” a member of the party told BusinessDay on condition of anonymity.
Moshood Salvador, a chieftain of the APC in Lagos State, said the party’s decision to allow the President choose the presidential candidate alone is undemocratic, stressing that it would be unfair for the aspirants not to be given equal chance to compete.
According to Salvador, “My prayer is that God should do the best for Nigeria; the APC is undemocratic, and there is no democracy in the way things are done now. After spending money and touring the country you just expect the aspirants to go home; that treatment is unfair.”
The issue of zoning of the presidency has dominated discussion in Nigeria in recent times. Top chieftains of the APC have categorically called for the ticket to be zoned to the South.
Chairman of the Southern Nigeria Governor’s Forum and Ondo State Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu has on several occasions maintained that equity and fairness demand that the presidency should come from the South in 2023.
Read also: APC: Waiting for Buhari’s anointed one
In a message on his Facebook page last week, the Ondo Governor said power rotation to the South was crucial for the party’s victory in the 2023 general elections.
“To retain power, the party must rotate to the South. APC must rotate power to win the election.
“APC must work to retain power. We must rotate power to retain power, rotate to the South,” Akeredolu had said.
But Chijioke Umelahi, a lawyer and former Abia lawmaker, thinks that not just the APC presidential aspirants, all Nigerians should stand up against the imposition incompetence at the primaries come June 6 and 7, considering the many lows the country has witnessed in the past seven years of the Buhari administration.
“In a sane society, APC will not have won a second term in office because the party, the president, the governors and senators all performed below average. Now is the time to correct it starting from choosing the right aspirant to fly its flag at the 2023 election and making it a northern affair is further compounding the problem as power must rotate this time,” he said.
Speaking further, Umelahi said that the choice of PDP should not bother the APC and the idea of fielding a northerner to compete against another northerner should not come up because the north has had eight years and power must shift to the south.
But Sam Onikoyi, a Nigerian researcher and intellectual in Belgium, noted that the APC primary is not going to be a make or mar election because the power brokers in the party have long made their choice and will use every means necessary to settle aggrieved party members because the eventual flag bearer will not be the most credible or popular.
“If the APC primary for the presidential ticket was a coup, it has been carried out long ago, and what is happening now is that power brokers are buying time and fulfilling the electoral umpire’s requirements,” he said.
Onikoyi, who has followed Nigerian politics for a long time and the APC since its emergence to power in 2015, lamented that, “It is all about late-hour compromise even for this June primaries. The party could not establish compromise from aspirants and the political blocs, that was why APC shifted the date to June and expectations may likely go contrary, I mean the result will upset many.”
In his opinion, Bode Alamutu, Ondo State PDP stalwart and hotelier, noted that his party made a mistake by choosing a northern candidate and that the APC only needs to field a southern candidate to correct that and retain power in 2023.
“At its primaries, PDP was blindfolded by the quest to regain power from the APC, but the reality staring on the faces of most Nigerians and especially southerners is that power must shift after eight years in the north. I am PDP, but will vote against my party if need be,” he said.
Speaking on the anticipation of Nigerians come June 6 and 7 for the APC primaries, Alamutu said that Nigerians should expect less as there could be surprises.
For Umelahi, the APC will not be the same come 2023 whether it wins the presidential election or not because everything in the last seven years has hovered around Buhari and the fear of Buhari has been a major source of forced loyalty for the APC by members.
Onikoyi shared the same sentiments, saying that President Buhari will care less about the party when he leaves office in 2023, and the powers of the cabals will wither.
Moreover, after the tenure of President Buhari, Alamutu foresees fierce struggle by party bigwigs for control and the eventual decamping, new party emergence and crisis. But he does not see the crisis impacting much or working in favour of the PDP as the party has not been fair to the south, according to him.
