Olisa Agbakoba, senior partner and head of the Arbitration and ADR Practice Group in Olisa Agbakoba Legal, and Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), in this interview with ZEBULON AGOMUO, spoke on what should ideally be the focus of politicians aspiring to occupy various offices in 2023. He deplored the quality of conversation going on, which according to him is not different from the self-serving rhetoric. He expressed doubts over the possibility of votes counting this time around, following the body language of politicians and their parties. Excerpts:
The picture is becoming clearer now with the array of presidential aspirants on different political platforms seeking their parties’ ticket. One thing that is very important is that whoever should be Nigeria’s next president must not only understand the economy but has a solution to the myriad of challenges the country is going through in that front. What should be your advice to the delegates that would choose the candidates during the primaries?
That’s a difficult one because we don’t know how far ideology will play a role. That is the biggest challenge that I see. The French presidential election of the other day that we spoke about; there were three tendencies- Emmanuel Macron was in the middle.
He was neither far left nor far right. That’s why he was able to defeat Marine Le Pen who is far right. When Labour Party was far left in UK, they couldn’t win election. The English people were at that time renting Council Houses.
It was very fashionable then. Everybody in the UK had a Council House, but Margaret Thatcher was advised to introduce ownership into the Council Housing police. Socialism is about everybody owns; but in conservative politics, it is about capitalism. The advice was, why not buy instead of renting? So, Thatcher used that to advance. So, you see that ideology played a role. Now, Marine Lo Pen, a far rightist was defeated by Macron because people are not comfortable with that ideology.
The delegates who will do the voting will be inspired by, what do I receive? What is the benefit I am going to receive; not in terms of cash, but in terms of what it would mean for the people; how would it impact the grassroots people, etc.
If I put this or that man in, what does he represent? How do I reap the benefit, not in terms of cash? Is he a socialist (is he going to run a socialist economy? Remember, Bernie Sanders couldn’t make it in America because he is a practical left. One man who spent billions in that election- couldn’t make it.
So, it is the people in the middle that I will be advising the delegates to look out for, because they tend not to be far left or far right. But what I have said, how does it make any sense to the delegates sitting at Eagle Square?
What are those other considerations when they see Peter Obi, Atiku, Wike, Anyim, Tambuwal, among others in the PDP; or when they see Tinubu, Vice President Osinbajo, Amaechi, etc in the APC? That’s why we have to be very clear about where our politics is; where exactly are we headed? Look at Trump’s case in the US, with all his taunting; he lost; because people were just tired of him.
The question is, how do we begin to have such a conversation; such a mindset here? And it is because those questions are not decided, it is not easy to say exactly where delegates will vote; because as I told you earlier, Nigeria is an illiberal democracy, and an illiberal democracy doesn’t use ideology which is why, if you look at all the candidates, I am not sure whether they have not been in more than two or three parties since 1999.
That’s why I don’t know the difference between the parties. So, ideology is meaningless to them. You don’t expect that issues will drive the voting process at the primaries. There could be other considerations.
You are a strong advocate of competence as against consensus and zoning arrangements. But some people say, that if zoning does not play this time around, it could worsen the fragile peace and unity in the country, and could also fuel the feeling of marginalisation of certain parts of the country. With all of these, if you were to take a fair decision on this what would be your choice?
Competence. Yes, I will still go with competence. You see, you might do zoning to the South East which is obviously entitled, morally, because they have not had it before. So, I can see the sentimentality of saying; ‘let it got to the South East.’
I am sure that the East can also produce competent hand for the presidency. But I am tired of this zoning thing; when they get there, performance becomes an issue. So, I rather have a person, wherever he is from, who goes there and makes Nigeria realise its aspirations. That’s the kind of president I want.
You are a Nigerian; could you please name your preferred candidate from the array of presidential aspirants on parade?
There are a couple of them, but I will not name names. I have a couple I think will fit the bill.
Those couple of people you said you know are capable; do they cut across party lines?
Yes, they do
Could you please, as a Nigerian, describe the situation where the country is at the moment?
Nigeria is at a very terrible state. We are challenged financially, that is why our budget deficit is about seven to eight trillion naira. So, anyone who is leading a country where there is a financial challenge with 36 states unviable, yet politicians don’t see the need to rearrange the structure or to cut the expenses; it is a crisis.
With that sort of situation where diesel is N700 per litre, electricity tariff has gone up, everything is up; inflation is up, interest rates are up; so, all the negatives are playing out. I, personally, will look out for Q2 (Quarter two) figures by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). I am waiting for the figures to come out.
I don’t think that they will look good and they will reflect what is going on in the country. Somebody told me recently that we should forget this GDP thing or if the statistics say the GDP numbers are looking good; the economy is growing; go and ask the man on the street. As I drive in and out of office; I can see the pressure on the street.
Read also: Challenges won’t stop us from holding elections – INEC
Don’t you think the election should be lost on this plank?
Absolutely, but unfortunately elections in Nigeria are not ideologically driven. That’s the truth. If they were, then clearly the ruling party would be at the risk of losing the election.
Voters vote but I am not sure how much votes will count this time around. In an illiberal system, the pattern of voting does not necessarily reflect the wishes of the people. It becomes a process.
In Nigeria, it is just a process – every four years, you go for an election. A lot of money is being wasted in the process. Have you heard any of the politicians talk about the people? They talk about themselves. They are consumed with the intention of how ‘do we get into office?’ That makes it difficult to have great choices.
You are not a party man. But as a Nigerian are you disturbed by N100 million nomination form by the ruling APC and what implication do you think such has on the nation’s electoral process?
It is too high. Election should be free and fair and devoid of exhibition of too much money; why placing on people the burden of raising N100million for forms? That is a lot of money. It is far too high.
Granted that we do not have a competent president next year due to the factors you have mentioned earlier – electoral process, discussions among politicians for consensus, etc – what do you think would happen to Nigeria given where the country is at the moment?
If we have a competent president, that will be the best. If we have an incompetent person who recognises his limitation and knows how to use good hands to achieve great results, that would be the second best; the worst choice is incompetent president who does not know he is incompetent. That is a horrible case.
He will now fill the whole government with Nazism; because he feels he knows it all. But let’s hope we can put in a competent person or an incompetent person who is wise that can get the right people to help him deliver.
What may be your advice to the Nigerian voting masses ahead of the general election?
My advice is – I know you guys are tempted by the money, bread, etc, take it. If you sell your vote, don’t complain because at the end of the day it bounces back at you. I think Nigerians deserve a good leader in 2023.
