Iyorchia Ayu, the national chairman of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), has, since assumption of office toward the end of last year, been championing the return to power of the erstwhile ruling party.
In fact, that was the grain of his inaugural speech as he asked the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to start preparing its handover note, saying Nigerians who were allegedly fed up with the “maladministration” of the APC were yearning for the return of PDP.
“A PDP administration will change the narrative. We will unite the people. We will deepen the content of our democracy. We will rebuild our collapsed economy. We will make Nigerians the focus of development.
“We will expand our international vision beyond Niger Republic. We will check the rampaging insecurity. We will restore Nigeria’s lost glory. And we will reclaim our dignity, destiny and pride as the Giant of Africa.
“To the APC, we, once again, renew our quit notice on you. Begin to prepare your handover notes,” Ayu had said.
Speaking recently at a function in Rivers State, he expressed confidence that the party would produce the next president of the country.
He said the APC-led Federal Government, which, according to him, has pulled the country backwards economically, has to be changed.
“Unfortunately, a very poor leadership has presented Nigeria at home and abroad as an extremely divided country.
“We must change this narrative and the only way to change this narrative and harness not just the culture, but the environment and the richness therein, is to back the People’s Democratic Party, which is determined to produce a new leadership for this country,” he said.
According to Ayu, “The PDP will definitely produce the next president and take the country back to the days when we were in power, when we cleared all foreign debts, when we were developing this country at reasonable speed, and when we became the richest country on the African continent.”
In the last few months, the PDP has experienced a fresh breath of air after a turbulent period where internal crisis had crippled the smooth running of the party nationally and in several states.
The crisis had degenerated resulting in the removal of former national chairman Uche Secondus from office, while several chieftains and governors defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Thus, observers felt that Ayu’s coming was a sign of better days ahead; they expressed optimism that he was up to the task judging by his rich credentials and political experience.
Upon assumption of office, observers had tasked Ayu to urgently reposition the party for victory in the 2023 general election and beyond. This they said can be done by urgently embarking on a rebuilding exercise to try and bring together all the state chapters polarised by internal crisis.
More so, pundits had predicted that perhaps, the ability of the Ayu-led leadership to navigate the seemingly intricate issues may determine the future of PDP.
However, in the last few weeks, the inability of the party to resolve the lingering debates on where the party would zone the 2023 presidency have heightened tension within the PDP circles across the country. Particularly worrisome is the issue of the South East geo-political zone, which is the strong base of the PDP, but had not produced a president since the party was given birth to in 1999.
In the last few years, leaders of the region had insisted that they must produce the next president after the expiration of the two terms of incumbent Muhammadu Buhari next May.
There are concerns in some quarters, and questions are being asked as to how far the party has gone in resolving some of the internal crises, which affected several state chapters so that it would not serve as a stumbling block.
However, some party members have allayed such fears, saying that the party was on track and must naturally encourage all stakeholders, party faithful and the generality of the country by giving them hope of a new and better Nigeria.
They said Ayu was on course to reposition PDP and get it on the winning ways alongside his other executive members, with the support of the governors and all other critical stakeholders.
Adelaja Adeoye, a former national publicity secretary of ADP and now a chieftain of the PDP in Lagos, said: “I have no doubt that PDP will win massively in 2023 because of the fact that APC has suffered Nigerians; inflation is nothing to talk about or the tag that Nigeria is now the epicentre of poverty in the world.
“When PDP was in power things were never this bad for 16 years, but in a span of less than eight years, Nigerians are in pain.
“So, it is in line for the national chairman, Iyorchia Ayu to boldly say that PDP will return back to power in 2023, because Nigerians themselves have experienced both APC and PDP and they know which is better for them.”
Adelaja, however, added that “The issue of zoning is a very delicate matter that the chairman cannot decide on it all alone. It is an issue that must be handled with care. Stakeholders from the South, especially the South East of the party have been clamouring that the ticket be zoned to them, which has made our former Vice Presidential Candidate, Peter Obi, to show interest should the party decide that it is going South.
“On the other hand, the party is looking at the easiest way to return to power in terms of voting demography, which tends to favour the North; that is why some aspirants from the North have been showing interest, however, to immediately put the issue to rest, the party has said it has not zoned to any region in the country.
“But like I have posited previously, we must look beyond issues of ethnicity or religion when making decisions for who will be the President of Nigeria in 2023.”
According to him, “Our focus must be someone with the required clout, connections, competence, capacity and character with practical experience in leadership and governance because the work to be done to refix Nigeria from the present ruin done by the APC’s led government is huge.”
‘For victory, PDP must zone to South’
The Ayu gospel of returning PDP power is also challenged by the party’s silence on the zoning of the office of the Presidency in the face of the agitation for power shift to the South and Eastern part of the country particularly.
There are fears that the party may zone the Presidency to the North, considering the large number of aspirants for the office from the zone, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former Senate President, Bukola Saraki; Sokoto State Governor, Aminu Tambuwal; Bauchi State Governor; Bala Mohammed and former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso.
However, the PDP Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Abdullahi Ibrahim said the party was still consulting on its zoning arrangement.
Ibrahim said in a recent media inquiry that: “People are in a haste to see us declare our position on zoning. There are processes of consultations and engagements, which are still ongoing.
“We just have in place an NWC which is barely two months in office. What it is doing now is to aggregate all the contending forces and interests and all the divergent views and come up with an informed decision as to where the presidency will be zoned accordingly.”
For Sam Onikoyi, a Nigerian researcher in Brussels, Belgium, Ayu and the party will gain respect if they tackle the most critical issues in the 2023 general election.
“There are clamours for power to shift to the South in 2023 and PDP is not firm on the shift, Atiku is still nursing ambition to rule. Sadly, the ruling party is thinking South and is likely going to have 2023 because any party that fields a Southern presidential candidate will win. So, Ayu should bear this in mind,” he noted.
He insisted that if Ayu wants to return PDP to power in 2023, he must insist on a Southern presidential candidate or APC will beat them to it again.
“There is a game of hide-and-seek going on. We all know that, but the reality is that power must shift to the South and PDP should know this better. It is not about the voting numbers, but power shift, else some zones will boycott the 2023 election and a bigger problem will emerge afterwards,” he warned.
On his part, Yohanna Pam, a Plateau State-born politician, noted that if Samuel Ortom, the governor of Benue State, is the PDP leader, he can command the kind of influence that would unite aggrieved party members, including governors that defected to other parties, but Ayu may not command such influence now.
Ortom is even challenging Atiku and sees no reason he should contest as Buhari is from the north and an Atiku means power to the north again after eight years, which the south will not support. Way forward for PDP is to insist on southern candidates or Ayu will fail woefully,” the Abuja-based politician declared.
On a general note, observers noted that no matter the level of reconciliation and even if all the former PDP governors and party bigwigs who defeated to APC return, if the party fails to insist on power shift or fail to field presidential candidate from the Southern part of the country, PDP will die a natural death after 2023 general election.
“How can the north rule for eight years and another northerner is planning to rule for another eight years? That is a grand scheme by the north and the south should stop it or abandon PDP. If Atiku wants to rule, let him run as vice to any southern presidential candidate under PDP. Yes!” an aggrieved party member said.
They fear that the Gboko, Benue State-born politician, may not be able to control the bigwigs whose actions and inactions have been the reasons for the many cracks in the party since losing election in 2015.
Though Ayu is an experienced politician, having served in various ministerial positions in the cabinet of President Olusegun Obasanjo between 1999 and 2007, the herculean task of reconciling aggrieved party members and fostering unity ahead of the 2023 general election, may likely overwhelm him, some political analysts noted.
Chijioke Umelahi, a lawyer and former Abia lawmaker, believes that returning PDP to power in 2023 is an almost impossible task.
The lawyer observed that the PDP has not shown enough courage as an opposition party, the way the All Progressives Congress (APC) did for years before eventually unseating them (PDP) in 2015.
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That lack of sustained opposition from the PDP, according to him, puts whoever is leading the party in a precarious position as most Nigerians are tired of both PDP and the APC, which they see as same with the incessant cross-carpeting of members, betrayal of supporters’ trust and anger at the selfish interest of party bigwigs at the detriment of the supporters and the masses at large.
Umelahi said: “We are happy for Ayu, but who can he control, can he bring the defected governors back; can he take decisions on critical issues and they are obeyed by the bigwigs?”
APC says PDP return threat empty
While the former President of the Senate continued to beat the drums of change, there are those who believe that the Ayu’s PDP has nothing to offer Nigerians.
In fact, he was immediately countered by Saliu Mustapha, an aspirant for the APC National Chairman who said the PDP still has nothing to offer Nigerians in spite of its change of leadership.
Mustapha described the inaugural speech of Ayu as a bare-faced attempt by the party to hoodwink Nigerians to return it to power in 2023.
“Like many stakeholders in the ruling party, I find it shocking that the new PDP chairman used his inaugural speech to rehash the lies and innuendos of the previous leadership of the opposition party.
“But contrary to Ayu’s attempt to revise history, President Buhari inherited a country that was virtually on life support with no fewer than 27 states unable to pay salaries and pension in spite of a historic oil proceeds in the preceding years,” he said.
