Like a budging boil pregnant with pus ready to burst, so is the level of apprehension over where the pendulum of victory will likely swing to.
Nobody is sure what to expect. Even those at the Government House in Osun who keep a dossier on what they term tremendous achievements of the Aregbesola-administration cannot tell.
Rauf Aregbeola, the incumbent governor, who mounted the seat of power in the state on November 27, 2010, after protracted court proceedings that sacked People’s Democratic Party’s Olagunsoye Oyinlola, is banking on his modest performance to retain power when his tenure of office expires in the next few months.
The Osun election is a make-or-mar battle for both the PDP and the All Progressive Congress (APC). While the umbrella party sees the poll as an avenue to stamp its incursion into South West, the APC wants to prove to Nigerians that what happened in Ekiti on June 21, was just a huge mistake.
Across the states in the South West zone, the fear of the buzz word in the political lexicon, “grassroots,” is now the beginning of wisdom for all politicians, especially those contesting the gubernatorial seat in the election slated for August 9. Osun State since the conclusion of the Ekiti gubernatorial election which saw the emergence of the PDP candidate as winner on the basis of his acclaimed affinity with the ordinary folks and the downtrodden people, pundits say many politicians have begun to fake popularity with the masses.
Osun State is understandably agog as electioneering campaigns are now daily occurrences in the state ahead of the off season gubernatorial election. Neither the incumbent governor who is seeking a re-election nor others who want to unseat him via the ballot is sleeping on guard.
Ordinarily, Aregbesola would not have had any need involving himself in a strenuous and intensive tour of the communities preaching the gospel of re-election given the modest achievements of his administration in the last three-and-half years, but for the outcome of a similar election in Ekiti a few weeks ago which left APC bruised and the leadership, tongue-tied.
Although in Osun State, pundits say the PDP candidate, Iyiola Omisore has some moral burden of a murder allegation hanging on his head, which they believe may constitute a huge stumbling block to his winning the race, the APC flag bearer is not leaving anything to chance for many reasons.
Speaking with BDSunday during the week, a senior aide of the governor said they could not afford to take anything for granted, hence the decision of his principal to approach the campaign as if he were contesting for the first time.
“My brother, the way things are at the moment, nothing is sure. Nobody is sure of anything. If you talk about performance, we have done so, but when people begin to say, ‘Oh if you tarred the roads, have you tarred the stomach?’ So, it is all about stomach now. We really hope that the people of Osun will vote with their conscience, because if they do, there’s no doubt that we will carry the day,” he said.
Analysts say that going by what happened in Ekiti, it may indeed be very difficult for the incumbent governor to count his chicks before they’re hatched.
A pundit, who simply gave his name as Robinson said that the intimidating number of security personnel in Ekiti may have discouraged those who had planned to do some funny things. “For me, the success of the Ekiti election should be credited to the huge presence of the security operatives who were there even days before the elections. Again, the visit of President Goodluck Jonathan a few days to the election and his promises to the people rekindled hope, and strengthened the acceptance of the PDP candidate, Ayo Fayose, by the people. Don’t forget that a lot of money was made available to Fayose from the centre to run a successful campaign and of course take care of the ‘stomach infrastructure’ as they call it now.
“Moreover, another factor that might have put APC in distress in Osun is the sudden removal of the REC. Imagine a REC that has been working closely with the state government, (remember that PDP had raised alarm to that effect) and all of a sudden, another REC who is coming at the instance of the Federal Government, he is not likely to be the governor’s man, at least, not now”, Robinson said.
It is said that Omisore may not pose a formidable threat as Fayose did in Ekiti, reason being that while the Ekiti governor-elect is known for his grassroots style of politicking, Omisore is elitist and does not have that close ties with the people.
However, commentators believe that the election can go either way since the security is being provided and supervised by the government at the centre.
Recall that the incumbent governor of Ekiti State, Kayode Fayemi, was accused of being too elitist in his approach to governance which reportedly worked against his return bid. And following his ouster, all the APC governors in the South West have since begun to embrace populist ideology.
In Osun for instance, Senator Iyiola Omisore was pictured recently showing off a roasted corn he bought from a roadside seller. Behaviours of these nature are now rampant in Osun, showing the desperation of contenders to carry the day.
Zebulon Agomuo
