In 2020, one story consumed everything (COVID-19); but in 2021, the world has started looking at life beyond the pandemic. In the light of this, here are four themes set to shape the course of the post-COVID world.
The electric revolution revs up
Investments in the electric revolution have surged as over 250 firms are currently manufacturing electric vehicles and 47 battery factories are under construction. Tesla, the market leader has seen its share price surge. It’s now so valuable, it has been added to the S&P 500 (America’s main stock market index) putting it in the same bracket as companies like Apple and Microsoft. Simon Wright an Industry Editor stated, “Tesla’s is a remarkable story, no car company has gone from nothing to where Tesla is in such a rapid period of time”.
Tesla’s success convinced established carmakers that there was a market for electric cars. The car company that made the biggest bet on the future is Volkswagen which has invested huge sums; however all car companies are introducing electric models weekly. Every week new plans to electrify old model cars have been rapidly picking up the pace.
This year would be a tipping point for electric cars, as more manufacturers roll out their electric range. Simon Wright also stated, “there’s suddenly going to be a huge array of electric vehicles for people to choose from”. In June, the gas-guzzling SUV brand of general motors (HUMMER) would start production on all electric cars and at the end of the year, Elon Musk’s TESLA would launch its futuristic looking cyber-truck. Simon stated that “the cyber truck might not be to everyone’s taste, I however think that’s significant because the American would make real profits on pick-ups, so Tesla has come out with their own version of the pick-up and the electric hummer is trying to tap into that market as it is America’s biggest profitable market.”
Although all car sales dropped in 2020, in 2021 they are expected to pick up again and sale of battery powered vehicles are projected to grow rapidly over the next decade. This year (2021) is just the beginning, if more governments commit to future bans on the sale of petrol and diesel cars the growth in the electric vehicle sector could accelerate even more as well as have subsequent consequential demise on the survival of most oil economies of the world, Nigeria inclusive.
A chance to restructure policies on climate change
In November, all eyes would be on Glasgow, Scotland as world leaders meet for the UN’s climate change summit (COP 26). It was originally scheduled for 2020, but postponed due to the pandemic. If it had gone as planned, COP 26 would have marked 5 years since the PARIS agreement. Catherine Brahic an environment editor indicated that “built into the PARIS agreement was this ratchet mechanism that basically stated governments need to increase their promises to cut National emissions every 5 years”. The PARIS agreement sets a target of limiting global warming to between 1.5 and 2 degree Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. But experts predict that the pledges government made in 2015 would not be enough to achieve this target. The purpose of COP 26 is to get closer to the target of 1.5-2 degree Celsius; and what is needed for that are bigger and better promises to cut National emissions.
It looks likely that 2021 would be the boldest year ever for tackling climate change as the EU has said it would reach net zero emissions by 2050. They have an expansive package of policies that they would be expanding and agreeing on this year. The surprise announcement of last year (2020) came in September when Xi Jinping the General secretary of the Chinese communist party announced that China would be heading towards carbon neutrality by 2060. The details of how China intends to do this are still unclear and are anticipated at some point within the year. In America, Donald Trump undermined global efforts to tackle global warming, however with President Biden now on seat this could all change. Biden has promised to put America back into the PARIS agreement within his first 100 days in office and as such America would once again be influencing global climate politics. America is the world’s second biggest emitter and Joe Biden has promised to make the Country carbon neutral by 2050. His greatest challenge however, is getting these ambitious pledges through congress. In summary, having the European Union, the United States and China all headed towards some kind of mid-century target (2050-2060), emission elimination should give confidence to the rest of the countries that they could also ramp up their targets. All of that put together means 2021 could really mark a turning point in International climate negotiations.
Battle of the box offices: Hollywood vs China
Sometime this year, the eagerly awaited next installment in the JAMES BOND franchise as well as the GODZILLA vs KING KONG franchise would be released. But their release may be eclipsed at the box office by a movie most people in the west may never even have heard of which is “DETECTIVE CHINA TOWN 3” a slap-stick comedy which would help China’s box office make more money than America’s box office to become the biggest in the world. For a century, Hollywood has ruled the movie world, however its China’s turn now. Hollywood was the first kind of global film industry which exported world-wide and it has held that dominance for a long time. However, with China becoming the biggest box office, it feels like a milestone as it shakes that Hollywood dominance a little. China’s cinema industry has been growing for a number of years but in 2021 projections show America’s box office revenues stagnating as China’s revenues continue to rise.
With China building more screens particularly in 3rd tier and 4th tier cities, this trend was bound to happen, it was just a question of what year it was going to happen. In America, film fans are shunning the cinema in favor of video in demand but in China, both online streaming and cinema attendance are on the rise. The key element of it are the young audience who go to the cinemas regularly, with either friends or family to urban events as well. China’s rise to the top of the box office has been helped by the pandemic. Hollywood delayed productions and movie theaters have been closed; yet in China, cinemas are now back up to almost 75% capacity and production of new films is steaming ahead. The reason is because China is not too reliant on foreign productions unlike before. With 65-75% of the cinema in China being local content, the budget of those films has thus risen quite a lot in recent years.
Despite this, big American films still do very well in China. The eighth installment of the ‘Fast and Furious’ series took nearly twice as much in China as it did in North America. But Hollywood’s reliance on Chinese ticket sales has started a worrying trend.
Defending the planet
While most of the year will be focused on protecting the world from dangers on earth, some other scientists would be focusing on how to defend the planet in outer space. In July this year, NASA would launch the first trial in planetary defense. They would basically be purposely slamming a space craft into an asteroid to move it a little bit and avert it from its trajectory into earth. This might sound like a plot from a Hollywood blockbuster, but the threat of an asteroid hitting earth is real. Just 7 years ago, an undetected meteor exploded over the Russian city of Chelyabinsk injuring at least 1,200 people. This scenario happens every few decades and a situation where the meteor a bit bigger (160 meters) even though it’s rare, might cause damages capable of wiping out a large region, perhaps a small country if it does occur.
NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) would practice defending earth by altering the course of an asteroid using what is known as kinetic impactor technology. The target is the asteroid ‘Didymos’ which is orbited by a smaller asteroid ‘Dimorphos’. The DART spacecraft would hit the moonlet thereby adjusting its path and shortening its orbit by several minutes. The impact would happen in 2022 when the asteroid is close enough to earth for scientist to be able study the change in momentum using powerful telescopes. The DART mission is just one part of a wider worldwide effort in planetary defense.
The probability of a giant asteroid hitting earth is extremely small, but if 2020 has shown anything; it’s that it pays to be prepared for the unexpected.
