When Louis “pop” Armstrong of blessed memory sang the song “What a Wonderful World” in 1967, this writer was barely a teenager. With the current state of the world it is now that I think to myself; what a wonderful world? A world where friends shake hands in public, saying “I love you” only to go behind doors to ferment trouble for themselves and humanity. In spite of much hatred and violence in the world, it is still beautiful. How wonderful the world would have been if only we had given it a chance for improvement.
There is always a chance for improvement and growth but coronavirus has brought with it bad times. The pandemic has exposed weaknesses everywhere in the world. In Brazil, it has shown a story of inequality and political dysfunction. Coronavirus has exposed vulnerabilities of millions of migrant workers in India. Lebanon’s endemic corruption has been brought out. The opacity of the Chinese government has been exposed. In Nigeria, the pandemic has laid bare the dependency of Nigeria on cheap commodities like crude oil. There has been unrest in some parts of the world, from Minneapolis to Brasilia, from Beirut to Minsk because these societies are found wanting. And it brings to the fore the leadership question.
Since the early part of the year 2020, I have been wondering what would be going on in the minds of economists globally. It is because of the negative impact of the COVID-19 on the global economy. Before the pandemic, economists have succeeded for several decades to convince us that growth was not only desirable but normal and expected in any country. So, growth became the solution to most of the economic problems encountered such as poverty and unemployment. In almost 6 years of this column, I have realized from seminars, conferences and professional development programs that we live in a culture of growth; to question it, could be regarded as an attack on the culture.
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Anyway, the role of most governments is to facilitate and promote growth, and perhaps to ensure that the economy is not out of control. A failure of growth became inconceivable. No one prays for occasional downturns which economists refer to as recession. If there was recession, it would be followed by recovery of the economy depending on policies and how they are implemented. But when one does not see the recovery, questions would be asked.
To some, it is a reality that Nigeria is failing. While others’ perception of Nigeria is that she is a prosperous nation. Truth be told, what Nigerians ought to be debating now and working assiduously towards actualising is how Nigeria will not be a failed state
When the growth is sluggish, the citizenry is duty bound to ask questions, raise observations and complain because they want to be prosperous. Citizens want to be rich and successful. They want to make money. But prosperity depends on economic growth, according to economists. Some economists go to the extent of explaining that for a people to be prosperous, their country whether in black Africa or Latin America must enjoy a period of peace and prosperity. I cannot fault this assertion because I have either travelled to or lived in few countries that are classified as prosperous where the standard of living of their people can be regarded as above average. I have equally visited and/or lived in poor nations where the standard of living of citizens is barely average.
But with population growth higher than economic growth, even a prosperous nation would ultimately have its citizens earn low wages, and its working class will gravitate gradually into poverty unless there is an urgent intervention by the government. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) are not impressive these days. For some time, Nigeria’s economic output was stagnant with rising inflation and high unemployment.
At the time of writing, inflation was 16 percent. Unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2020 was 27.1 percent. According to available statistics, Nigeria’s unemployment and underemployment rate (28.6%) is a combined 55.7 percent. Prices of food items and other commodities have been increasing. Some Nigerians are losing their jobs as a result of the weak economy. In addition, there are security challenges across the entire country.
Poverty has hit historic heights. One keeps wondering how Nigeria arrived at this point. At the last count of those who are poor in Nigeria, the NBS reckoned 82 million Nigerians live on less than $1 a day. This unexciting figure ranked Nigeria as the country with the highest number of poor people in the world, according to reports. Forty percent of people in Nigeria live in poverty, according to the statistics office recently. Mr President has, however, promised to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years. To cap it all, the 2020 fragile States Index ranks Nigeria as the 14th most fragile state out of 178 countries in the world and 9th in Africa.
The Failed State Index does not provide all the answers needed to be a prosperous nation. But the index is a starting point for a national debate about why states fail and what could be done at all levels of government to prevent failure. With these figures compounded by worsening security challenges, some state officials want Nigerians to keep quiet by adopting a “conspiracy of silence.” Whether Nigeria is a failed state or not depends on the lens being used to gaze at the country’s economic data.
To some, it is a reality that Nigeria is failing. While others’ perception of Nigeria is that she is a prosperous nation. Truth be told, what Nigerians ought to be debating now and working assiduously towards actualizing is how Nigeria will not be a failed state. In the midst of the current weak economic performance, one would certainly expect some analysts to criticize the government in power and its policies.
To object to someone’s opinion on the state of the nation by verbally attacking his or her personality instead of addressing the issue of concern is to say the least anti-democratic and unprogressive. I thought most state officials in the government are progressives. I was proved wrong by some state officials who are intolerant to ideas that matter.
So, what can any Nigerian say that will attract insults? While we may forget the personality of an individual expressing his or her personal opinion on the state of the nation, let us look at the issue of concern. The issue of concern, according to reports, was ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo’s quoted view that only self-deluded people will claim that all is well in Nigeria and warned that the country was becoming a failed state and a basket case that urgently needs to be pulled from the brink of collapse. This to my mind should generate a debate, not broadsides.
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