A new Lagos state data report on the COVID-19 pandemic shows some interesting features but offers not much in terms of hints to forecast when the peak of the outbreak will be attained.
The 11-page analytics delivered in PowerPoint, cover the period from 16th March when Lagos recorded its first case to 7th April.
According to the report, Lagosians have a 60% chance of being infected by Covid-19 if a family member is infected and a 35% chance of infection if one has been travelling, commuting or handing out with an infected person. The chance of being infected at the office or via a close friend was put at only 15%.
Within the period of 23 days covered by the report, Lagos State data report recorded 130 cases of people that tested positive to COVID-19.
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In March, the growth rate of recorded cases was mostly in double digits and touched 30% on few days. In the last week covered by the period, the growth rate came down to lower double digits, and on some days, it hit zero and one single digit.
Discharge rate climbed from 2% on 29th March to 26% on 7th April. This is good news.
That the discharge rate is higher than the new case growth rate which is another good news. It means that people are recovering faster than the infection rate.
Lagos has attributed the good result to three key activities.
Firstly, it said 50% of the result came from the increased capacity for testing and improved care for patients.
Secondly, the enforced laws on social distancing and sit at home played a major role but the state government is saying that compliance with the lockdown remains at around 80%.
Going forward, the government said it is targeting to battle the pandemic by working to lift the level of discharged cases while significantly slowing the rate of the Coronavirus spread through better enforcement of the lockdown.
In a best-case scenario, the government scientists project that by April 18, the total number of confirmed cases in Lagos should be at around 336. In this best case, there will be no new case between April 18th to 30th, while the death rate will stay at around 3%. That is 10 to 20 deaths of a total of 336 confirmed cases.
This raises prospects of Lagos exiting COVID-19 around the 5th of.
A worst-case scenario assumes that as many 3 million cases will be recorded by around May 16 if the people fail to comply with the lockdown and social distancing measures in place. With this, there could be no end to the pandemic in Lagos
On Sunday, Lagos recorded only two confirmed cases, the least level of increase in a long time and this may point to some success from the lockdown measures being implemented.
However, given the tone of the Lagos state data, it is now expected that the lockdown will be extended in Lagos to around the end of April with stricter enforcement.
