International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced global passenger traffic data for January 2020, showing that demand (measured in total revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) climbed 2.4 percent compared to January 2019.
This was down from 4.6 percent year-over-year growth for the prior month and is the lowest monthly increase since April 2010, at the time of the volcanic ash cloud crisis in Europe that led to massive airspace closures and flight cancellations. January capacity (available seat kilometres or ASKs) increased by 1.7 percent. Load factor climbed 0.6 percentage point to 80.3 percent.
“January was just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the traffic impacts we are seeing owing to the COVID-19 outbreak, given that major travel restrictions in China did not begin until 23 January. Nevertheless, it was still enough to cause our slowest traffic growth in nearly a decade,” Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director-general/CEO, said.
January international passenger demand rose 2.5 percent compared to January 2019, down from 3.7 percent growth the previous month. With the exception of Latin America, all regions recorded increases, led by airlines in Africa and the Middle East that saw minimal impact from the COVID-19 outbreak in January. Capacity climbed 0.9 percent, and load factor rose 1.2 percentage points to 81.1 percent.
African airlines’ traffic climbed 5.3 percent in January, up slightly from 5.1 percent growth in December. Capacity rose 5.7 percent, however, and load factor slipped 0.3 percentage point to 70.5 percent.
Asia-Pacific airlines’ January traffic climbed 2.5 percent compared to the year-ago period, which was the slowest outcome since early 2013 and a decline from the 3.9 percent increase in December. Softer GDP growth in several of the region’s key economies was compounded by COVID-19 impacts on the international China market. Capacity rose 3.0 percent and load factor slid 0.4 percentage point to 81.6 percent.
European carriers saw January demand climb just 1.6 percent year-to-year, down from 2.7 percent in December. Results were impacted by slumping GDP growth in leading economies during the 2019 fourth quarter plus flight cancellations related to COVID-19 in late January. Capacity fell 1.0 percent, and load factor lifted 2.1 percentage points to 82.7 percent.
Middle Eastern airlines posted a 5.4 percent traffic increase in January, the fourth consecutive month of solid demand growth, reflecting strong performance from larger Europe-Middle East and Middle East-Asia routes, which were not significantly impacted by route cancellations related to COVID-19 at that time. Capacity increased just 0.5 percent, with load factor jumping 3.6 percentage points to 78.3 percent.
