In a country battered by political acrimonies, corruption and myriad scandals, seasoned investment watchers and investors are unfazed by doomsday predictions about the impending 2015 general elections.
Interestingly, they do not see any heavy disruptive activity that will in severe proportion dissuade investors who had already made up their minds about the country.
“Investors are paying more attention to economic fundamentals such as changes in rates, than the rhetoric of politics or political risks,” says one local investor in the oil and gas sector.
He told BusinessDay that President Goodluck Jonathan’s re-election or failure to get the ticket, has its pros and cons, some of which will require some measure of tact to handle, given the possible negative outcome.
“His re-election may positively impact the economy by forestalling developmental and policy disruptions typical of changes of government in Africa,” he said.
The economy still managed to finish very strongly in 2013 posting a stellar 6.8 percent growth. A rebasing this year will push the GDP to well over $400 billion against the backdrop of the noise around the president’s second term saga.
All of these numbers are reassuring to the investors who spoke exclusively to BusinessDay recently.
“But that does not mean that all is well with the country in general, and for the president in particular, who is battling to find a convincing way to persuade Nigerian’s to join him in his speculated bid for a second term,” says one CEO of a private equity firm.
The investors also talked about the need to continually put in place the private sector-driven framework to attract more investors.
Said one of them, “We need continuity for the economy to be doing the way it is doing now, and even surpass it. This is because if another person wins as president, everything might be distorted. If another person comes on board for instance, ongoing projects may be truncated, awarded projects may be discontinued.
“The selection of cabinet members may be problematic, and confirmation of ministers by the National Assembly might not sail smoothly. The 2015 budget that would have already been running, could be thrown away and there could be serious confusion that may set the country backwards”.
The battery of investors were however quick to warn of the possible ‘forced stand-down’ of the president on his second term, bid fearing a negative response from the Niger Delta region.
“In the event that Jonathan is denied the ticket, the militants of the Niger Delta region might decide to return to the creeks and resume hostilities. They might even decide to blow up oil pipelines to show their grievances.
“If Jonathan returns, there could also be some pockets of violence in the North, but that could not equate the magnitude of disturbances that could arise from denying him the opportunity to seek re-election. The Northern youths could re-enact the protest of 2011, but the Niger Delta people could decide to attack oil installations and bring the economy to its knees. I think it would be wise for the political class to tread very softly and carefully too”, one of the investors said.
Reacting to the claim by the investors, Frederick Fasehun, a businessman, politician and leader of the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC), said the investors were in the right position to say to what extent the election would affect them.
“It is they (investors) who are bringing money into the country that are in the right position to say. If they have so much confidence in the economy, it means they are sure of what they are saying. Nigeria belongs to us all and the peace of Nigeria should be the concern of every one,” Fasehun said.
In his own reaction, Abubakar Momoh, a professor and director-general at the electoral institute of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), said investors were more concerned about the investment climate of the country than anything else.
“Investors are more concerned about stability, peace, and favourable investment environment. These are the key factors. If indicators are there, and there are clear evidence that they will be sustained, for instance, favourable interest rate, availability of necessary infrastructure among others, investors will come. If the necessary institutions are in place, whether President Jonathan is there or not, it will not matter,” Momoh said.
By: Zebulon Agomuo
