The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced its expectation for airlines to achieve a collective net profit of $33.8 billion (4.1% net margin) in 2018.
This is a solid performance despite rising costs, primarily fuel and labour, but also the upturn in the interest rate cycle. These rising costs are the main driver behind the downward revision from the previous forecast of $38.4 billion in December 2017.
In 2017 airlines earned a record of $38.0 billion (revised from the previously estimate of $34.5 billion). Comparisons to this, however, are severely distorted by special accounting items such as one-off tax credits which boosted 2017 profits.
Profits at the operating level, though still high by past standards, have been trending slowly downwards since early 2016, as a result of accelerating costs.
“Solid profitability is holding up in 2018, despite rising costs. The industry’s financial foundations are strong with a nine-year run in the black that began in 2010. And the return on invested capital will exceed the cost of capital for a fourth consecutive year. At long last, normal profits are becoming normal for airlines. This enables airlines to fund growth, expand employment, strengthen balance sheets and reward our investors,” Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO said.
In 2018, the return on invested capital is expected to be 8.5% (down from 9% in 2017). This still exceeds the average cost of capital, which has risen to 7.7% on higher bond yields (7.1% in 2017). This is critical for attracting the substantial capital needed by the industry to expand its fleet and services.
Inflation pressures are starting to emerge at this late stage of the economic cycle and airlines are facing significant pressures from rising fuel and labor costs in particular.
IATA’s Forecasts
The association says it expects the full-year average cost of Brent Crude to be $70/barrel. This is up from $54.9/barrel in 2017 (+27.5%) and our previous 2018 expectation of $60/barrel. Jet fuel prices are expected to rise to $84/barrel (+25.9%). Fuel costs will account for 24.2% of total operating costs (up from a revised 21.4% in 2017).
Overall unit costs are forecast to rise 5.2% this year, after a 1.2% increase in 2017; a significant acceleration.
Overall revenues are expected to rise to $834 billion (up 10.7% from $754 billion in 2017).
Unit revenues are expected to rise by 4.2% in 2018, lagging the 5.2% rise in unit costs. This will squeeze profit margins.
Passenger air travel is forecast to expand by 7.0% in 2018. This is slower than the 8.1% growth recorded for 2017 but still faster than the 20-year average (of 5.5%) for the sixth consecutive year.
Demand is getting a boost from stronger economic growth and the stimulus from new city-pair direct services. Capacity is expected to grow by 6.7% (the same pace as in 2017).
The passenger load factor is expected to be 81.7%, up a little on 2017 (81.5%). Total passenger numbers are expected to rise to 4.36 billion (up 6.5% from 4.1 billion in 2017).
Passenger yields are expected to grow by 3.2% in 2018 after a 0.8% decline in 2017. This will be the first year for strengthening yields since 2011, driven upwards by the 5.2% rise in unit costs.
Cargo demand is expected to grow by 4.0%. This is a major drop from the 9.7% growth experienced in 2017, but it remains in line with the 20-year trend growth rate. Total cargo carried is expected to increase to 63.6 million tonnes (from 61.5 million tonnes in 2017). Pharmaceuticals, e-commerce and other premium cargo services are expected to lead growth in 2018. Cargo yields are expected to improve by 5.1% (8.1% growth in 2017).
With over 1,900 aircraft expected to be delivered to airlines in 2018 (up from 1,722 in 2017), there will be a boost in capital expenditure.
Since cash from operations will be squeezed by accelerating costs and capital spending is rising, free cash flows are expected to fall to around $4 billion. Key balance sheet ratios, such as net debt adjusted for operating leases/EBITDAR, have improved significantly since 2014. Further debt reduction is expected to be sufficient to stabilize this ratio in 2018.
Growing uncertainty in the direction by which global affairs will evolve could present risks to the industry’s outlook. These include the advancement of political forces pushing a protectionist agenda, uncertainty following the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, lack of clarity on the impact of Brexit, numerous ongoing trade discussions and continuing geopolitical conflicts.
“Aviation spreads prosperity and enriches the human spirit. That truth lays the foundation for a very important message. The world is better off when borders are open to people and to trade. And our hard work as an industry has primed aviation to be an even stronger catalyst for an ever more inclusive globalization,” de Juniac said.
African airlines continue their very slow emergence from the 2014 low point ($900 million loss) of financial performance, with losses continuing at the $100 million level. This is unchanged from 2017 when losses were cut as traffic, particularly cargo to Asia, grew in excess of capacity raising load factors from previously low levels. Net loss per passenger improved to $1.55 ($1.66 in 2017).
“The 4.1 billion passengers who boarded planes in 2017 demonstrated the human desire to explore, connect, learn and collaborate across great distances. And the over 60 million tonnes of cargo delivered by air accounted for a third of the value of goods traded globally. Every day, goods, people, investment and ideas are connected using aviation’s network. That directly supports 63 million jobs and improves the quality of life for all,” de Juniac said.
Some key indicators of the strength of global connectivity include:
The 2018 average return airfare (before surcharges and tax) is expected to be $380 (2018 dollars), which is 59% below 1998 levels after adjusting for inflation.
Average air freight rates in 2018 are expected to be $1.80/kg (2018 dollars) which is a 63% fall on 1998 levels.
The number of routes served by aviation is forecast to grow to over 58,000 in 2018, up from 52,000 in 2014.
The global spend on tourism enabled by air transport is expected to grow by 10.4% in 2018 to $794 billion
Airlines are expected to take delivery of more than 1,900 new aircraft in 2018, many of which will replace older and less fuel-efficient aircraft. This will expand the global commercial fleet by 4.2% to 29,600 aircraft.
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