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Nigeria, the World’s second-largest producer of sorghum after the U.S could benefit from what may be a trade war between the Trump administration and the Republic of China.
This is following retaliation by the Republic of China on the U.S due to the imposed tariffs by the U.S on $60billion Chinese goods and limiting China’s ability to invest in the US technology industry.
China, which has already implemented retaliatory tariffs of up to 25 percent on $3billion in food imports from the U.S, is seeking Nigeria as its alternative source of sorghum as risks of a trade spat with the U.S.
Unfortunately, Nigeria may be unable to fill the gap as violence in producing regions leave fields idle. This is following the attacks by both the Fulani herdsmen and Boko Haram.
While the Boko Haram insurgency is taking its toll on the North East, Fulani herdsmen are on the loose, destroying farmlands in North Central Nigeria, killing farmers and their families and burning their villages and farm produce. As such, fighting has intensified this year between herders and farmers over grazing land across much of central Nigeria, displacing hundreds of thousands of farmers, many of whom grow sorghum and other grains.
Nigeria produced 6.5 million metric tons of sorghum in 2017, second only to the U.S. which had output of more than 8 million tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Nigeria’s Agriculture Ministry puts annual output at 11 million tons, which it says is not enough for local demand of 12.5 million tons, raising questions about the capacity to export.
Sorghum is a drought-resistant grain used in the food and brewing industry as well as livestock feed and a staple in parts of the world.
Experts see the potential trade war between China and the U.S as an opportunity for Nigeria to export to China, although they fear Nigeria might not be able to take it as the country’s capacity is dwindling because of all security problems in the agricultural belt in the country.
China imposed a tariff of 179 percent on imports of U.S. sorghum in April after starting an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation in February. It recently announced it was suspending the measure as the two countries seek to resolve their trade dispute.
Meanwhile, buyers from China began making inquiries from Nigerian suppliers even before retaliatory tariffs with the U.S. set in.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the area planted with sorghum in Nigeria will decline 3 percent in 2018 to 5.2 million hectares (12.8 million acres) due to the resurgence of attacks by Boko Haram Islamist militants in major producing areas.
China is the world’s largest sorghum market and the threats of a trade war with the U.S. have provided sorghum-producing countries the opportunity to gain from the dispute between the world’s two biggest economies.
Nigeria is Africa’s top oil producer and suffered its worst economic contraction in 25 years in 2016 after prices collapsed. It’s seeking to diversify its crude-dependent economy by boosting agricultural exports.
Endurance Okafor
