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On a recent trip to Nairobi, Kenya, I learnt an important lesson. The day before my arrival, my host had aired the room and my flight from Abuja via Addis got me to Nairobi about 1am the following day. Later that morning, I attended to various Skype meetings, kneeling between the bed and the nice bay window behind me but with forearms and elbows on the bed. In the middle of the call I felt something land on my legs and shuffle off at speed and instinctively I knew whatever the thing was, it was alive! At first, I thought it was a mouse, but turning my head in the direction of the eerie feeling I had, I saw it, there, coiled in the corner only about 1.5meters away from where I was, with head poised for a strike, the most beautiful, slim, not-too-long, but still-terrifying, green-snake I had ever seen! Out of good manners and proper upbringing, all in auto-pilot, I managed to close the call in less than two seconds and high-tail it out of the room.
After a lot of commotion and those who made out they were brave finally admitting they actually had some phobias, the slim, beautiful, green, short-for-a-snake creature was sorted out. Apparently, as a tree snake, it had hopped across from some very generous palm fronds overlapping the window while it was open and blended in with the very green window blinds I had pulled back to enjoy the sunshine before my call started. What almost killed me were the what-ifs (since I had shared the room from about 2am with the snake) and various scenario constructing thoughts that kept flashing up in my mind. I was officially traumatised and each time I closed my eyes or blinked, all I could see was the snake. Needless to say, the snake dominated my conversations for the rest of the trip till I began reflecting a little deeper on all sorts of symbolisms. I will share one of the allegories that stuck with me out of the hundreds I must have scanned over what was just a few days.
Can one describe as a dense mass of snakes, the myriad political economy actors creating blockages to progress in the development of Nigeria? These would be the “snakes” that incite violence, perpetrate fraud and corruption, warp systems and procedures for private profit, bribe judges, sabotage public service delivery for private gain; they know what is right, refuse to do it, and also prevent others from doing it … you know, snakes! If we don’t sort the snakes out, can we make progress? So, I imagined upon reflection, that we were only able to confront the slim, shortish, agile but light weight snake precisely because despite being terrified, we felt it was one that could be contained. So, the size, mass, length and agility of the snake mattered. In Nigeria’s current political economy, we would have to have the power of analysis to identify each snake in the morass and then take an informed decision as to whether or not an intervention had a chance to succeed.
Let me illustrate this with the tense situation in Kenya around the 2017 elections. We may recall the Supreme Court of Kenya took the unprecedented step of annulling the elections based on irregularities it claimed were in the process. There was a re-run and around that was drama as the leader of the main opposition party had issues with the arrangements. For a brief period, it seemed like the violence of the 2012 elections were bound to be repeated. The opposition seemed to have the power to call people out onto the streets at the drop of a hat. Anyone opposed to the government in power appeared to have the ability to join forces with all others and threaten the stability of the country. The impasse between the leader of the opposition and the President appeared the biggest blockage to progress in the country. It seemed like Kenya was doomed, but that was until “the handshake.” It appears the President of Kenya was decisive, did something in the background which resulted in a public handshake between him and the leader of the opposition.
After that, a lesser opposition figure, feisty and agile, who tried to throw influence around was summarily sorted out – he got deported on a technicality (I refuse to comment on this instrument) and the country did not burn! Had he been deported before “the handshake” it might have drawn the main opposition figure and his supporters into the fray, but the timing was after things had been “sorted out.” I admit it is hard to tell at this point “how” things were sorted out. We see the major opposition figure now acting like a de facto Prime Minister and the longer-term implications for peace and stability are not so clear at the moment. But, is there a lesson in all this for those who believe they are not too young to run? I think there might be. First, it appears self-evident that interventions that do not address what must be addressed but instead focus only on what can be addressed are doomed to failure.
The fact that power is currently in the hands of heavily entrenched interests should not be glossed over – there should be a strategy for ‘sorting the snakes out.’ Before you throw your hands up in despair I want you to consider that there might be four sources of power (according to Cambridge Political Economist, Michael Mann) and perhaps they have not monopolised all the sources: control of vast resources (alliances have always been the way to tip this balance), control of state policy (here they may have the edge), control of ideology (this could be anyone’s game) and control of the use of force (which can include neutralizing their monopoly by changing the paradigm for their agents – young people).
Of the four sources, they might at first appear to have a choke hold on three. Closer inspection suggests this can be whittled down to two. Hard work in alliance and coalition building, setting the ideological narrative and neutralizing their monopoly over the use of force might well tilt the balance of power in favour of those not too young to run. Whatever emerges would depend on how good they are at ‘sorting the snakes out.’ What do you think?
Soji Apampa
Olusoji Apampa is the CEO of The Convention on Business Integrity. Twitter: @sojapaE-mail: aviga@cbinigeria.com
