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As Nigeria’s electoral democracy continuous to grapple with leadership failure, it has become clear that this problem emerged as a result of the kind of choices the electorate make when casting their ballot. Out of ignorance or on purpose, most voters tend to vote on the basis of ethnic affiliation or other sentiments. This has given ethnic champions, religious bigots, and mediocre access to power in our political space at the expense of those who possess the capacity to make meaningfully contribution in government. If we truly yearn for the kind of development that comes with democratic government, we cannot continue like this and expect that development will magically happen; because acting in this manner amounts to what Albert Einstein defines as insanity. For this reason, civic education among a class of democratic citizens I refer to as “Hobbits” and “Hooligans”, an issue we not given the attention it deserves and is seriously affecting our politics is highly important as 2019 inches closer.
The hobbits and hooligans in Nigerian
In his seminal work – Against Democracy – Jason Brennan classified democratic citizens into three broad categories, namely: the hobbits, hooligans and the vulcans. Essentially, the hobbits are apathetic to politics, hence their knowledge of political issues is very low, if not zero. The hooligans are more knowledgeable in politics than the hobbits. However, they are “rabid” (extreme) in their political views as they refuse to welcome opposing views that is at variance with theirs. For them, it is all about belonging to People’s Democratic Party, All Progressives Congress or Third Force that matters to their self-image in the same way being Igbo, Hausa or Yoruba matters to them. By contrast, the vulcans are rational in their political decision. They make electoral decisions on the basis of careful examination of public policy options put before them by those who seek govern them and settle for a candidate with realistic public policies that appeal to them.
Given their nature, the hobbits and the hooligans are more susceptible to political manipulation by ethnic bigots, religious fanatics and demagoguery elements who sell the “us” versus “them” narrative during elections, instead of presenting realistic policies they intend to implement if elected. In Nigeria, the vast majority of democratic citizens are either hobbits or hooligans. The number of the vulcans is negligible. This explains why the religious and ethnic narratives which occupied the political space in the 2011 and 2015 general elections appealed to most of the electorate in these categories.
The attitude of the voters’ on both side of the divide in the two elections brings to mind what a former American president said about a Latin American dictator: “he may be a son of a bitch, but he is our son of a bit.” Put differently, even if he is bad, let him go because he is our own. Has that attitude from the less informed class of democratic citizens solve the problems for which those governments were voted in? If they achieved anything at all, there is more of the debit than the credit. The country has since been extremely polarized with “democracy’s assassins” at the helm, which has done more damage to our corporate existence by creating all manners of ills and the elevation of a clannish and provincial style of governance at the centre. To continue this way and expect things to change is to imagine that it is possible to catch a cloud and pin it down as a nun in an abbey near Salzburg thought.
On this note, the media, Civil Society Organisations and Non-Government Organizations whose mandate falls around issues of democratic accountability, rule of law and transparency in government have to embark on civic education among the less informed electorate whose ballot these democracy’s assassins relay on for electoral victory. This is so because they constitute the large percentage of the electorate, and their vote is highly influence in swing the pendulum of power to any direction. Allowing them to remain in their ignorance and fixated worldview would detain us with this set of incompetent and kleptocratic politicians who are only interested in feasting on our common patrimony and watch us being brutally murdered, while they are protected by our security services.To complement the efforts of the Third Sector Organizations listed above, the Vulcans who have a higherknowledge in public policy issues have to join in educating the Hobbits and the Hooligans on the need to shun supporting politicians on the basis of pity sentiments of whatever kind, and carefully examine whether the campaign promises of those seeking to govern them are realistic enough to address their problems.
Issues of voters registration and uncollected PVC
Vexed by the abysmal performance of the Buhari led government, most Nigerians have been threatening to vote it out of power come 2019. Truth is, you do not vote a government out of power by posting exasperating twits, or liking and commenting same posts on social media platforms without a Permanent Voter Card (PVC), no matter how adrenalined up you are. This is where the problem lies. According to statistics from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), since it commenced Continuous Voters Registration (CVR) in January this year, only 5, 110, 836 persons have registered. If you add that number to the already registered persons before the 2015 general elections, you will get 73, 944, 312. In a country with an estimated population of about 190 million, this raises concern.
When I put the above figure side by side the 170 million Nigerians that voted during the Big Brother Nigeria show, I wept for the future of our youths. If they can attach such importance to BBN, why not the PVC which determines their future leaders? If they cannot register to vote out those who have failed to provide the basic infrastructure that brings about economic development and provide security against the activities of luciferous elements who are currently killing innocent Nigerians, why complain? Worse still, the statistics also indicates that the number of uncollected PVC is very high. The number of those that have collected less than half of those that registered.
Lagos, which expectedly, should house the vulcans and champion civic education has 1.4 million uncollected PVCs. Is this how Nigerians who complain about bad leadership intend to vote Buhari out of power? It does not work that way fellow Nigerians! Getting PVC and voting your preferred candidates is what wins elections. So, go and get yours before the exercise ends in December. It is by voting the right persons into office that we can save this country from descending into an apocalypse which our current leaders are bent on leading it to.
What are the chances of the incumbent president in 2019?
As at January 2018, INEC registered 10, 586, 965 persons in North Central, 9, 929, 015 in the North East, and 18, 505, 984 in the North West. In North-East, 8, 293, 093 persons were registered, while 11, 101, 093 and 14, 626, 800 persons were registered in the South-East and South-South respectively. These numbers clearly show that the North has the highest number of registered voters compared to the South – most of whom are within the Hobbits and Hooligans category. Let me do a hypothetical run-down of the chances of the president in 2019 based on these figures, and what it means for the anti-establishment movement. Arguably, there would be protest votes in the North-Central for explicable reasons, which would likely deplete the block votes that ordinarily should go to the incumbent as it was the case in 2015. If this happens and the 10, 586, 965 from North Central splits in the North, and if the South joins the protest as the disaffection currently shows, the incumbent will have a problem even if the core North votes along the line of provincial sentiment for the incumbent. My thesis challenges Tip O’Neill’s famous quote which states that “all politics are local.” If anything, all politics are either tribal or ethnic. This also applies to established democracies.
But the question is: what is the alternative option and how viable is it? While the vibes coming from the anti-establishment aspirants is encouraging and good for our electoral democracy, I have the distinct impression that they are not well informed on public policy judging from what I have been hearing. Again, they are not aware of the task ahead. If they are really serious about swinging the pendulum of power to their direction in 2019, they have to do more by investing more time and energy on voters’ awareness on how they intend to tackle poverty, security challenges, economic problems, education and unemployment. Sound articulation of their policy direction on these issues rather than the “aluta” approach and motivational speeches will appeal to most disgruntled electorate who are already vexed with the establishment politicians. For me, the Third Force is not an option. In fact, it is dead on arrival. My opinion though.
Martin Ihembe
Ihembe is a Political Scientist with research interest in political development. He can be reached via08023688848
