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The consumers’ overall confidence outlook worsened in the first quarter of 2018, as fewer consumers were optimistic in their outlook according to a report by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The index stood at -6.4 points in the first quarter, which was 23.0 points lower than -29.8 index in the corresponding period of 2017.
Some respondents in the CBN’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) attributed this moderation in outlook to worsening economic condition and family financial situation.
The Overall consumer confidence index is computed as the average of the three indices, including Economic Condition, Family Financial Situation and Family Income.
The CES for Q1 2018 was conducted during the period March 16 to 27, 2018, covering a sample size of 2,070 households drawn from 207 Enumeration Areas’ (EAs) across the country. The overall response rate for the Q1 2018 CES was 83.5 per cent. Respondents’ distribution by educational attainment showed that 17.7 per cent had university education, 16.6 per cent had higher non-university education, while 23.8 per cent had senior secondary school education. Respondents with junior secondary and primary school education accounted for 6.4 and 17.2 per cent, respectively, while those with no formal education accounted for the balance of 18.3 per cent.
However, the consumer outlook for the next quarter and next 12 months were also positive at 20.8 and 28.5 points, respectively.
The positive outlook could be attributed to the expected increase in net household income, the anticipated improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions, and expectations to save a bit and/or have plenty over savings in the next 12 months.
On outlook on price changes, most respondents expect the prices of goods and services to rise in the next 12 months with an index point of 16.2 points. The major drivers are Education, transportation, medical care, house rent, electricity, and food and other household needs.
The overall buying conditions index for consumers in the current quarter for big-ticket items stood at 34.3 points. This indicates that majority of consumers believed that the current quarter was not the ideal time to purchase big-ticket items like consumer durables, motor vehicles, and house.
Overall buying intention index in the next twelve months stood at 45.5 index points. The index at below 50 points, indicated that respondents have no plans to purchase furniture, gas cooker, refrigerator, air conditioner, television, motor vehicles and houses in the next twelve months.
With indices of 1.9 and 24.1 points, consumers expect borrowing rate to rise and Naira to appreciate in the next 12 months. The unemployment index for the next 12 months remained positive at 26.6 points in Q1 2018, indicating that majority of the consumers expect unemployment to rise in the next 12 months.
HOPE MOSES-ASHIKE
