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The election time-table has since been released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Perceived political allies and foes are aligning and realigning to actualise their political ambition come 2019. What is happening on the nation’s political turf, to the mere observers can only be captured in the expression, “The more you look the less you see.”
In politics, there are no sentiments. Self interest is the determinant factor. This is why many astute politicians take decisions that leave keen watchers tongue-tied. One of such hard decisions this time around is the determination of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State and national leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to throw his weight behind President Muhammadu Buhari’s return bid. While many Nigerians are asking “why”, the Jagaban is fixated.
Ordinarily, many observers had expected that Tinubu would give the President cold shoulders this time around, but the reverse appears to be the case.
The permutation
Those very close to Tinubu say he is supporting Buhari with his eyes wide open. It is said that the former governor of Lagos State decided to take that route because it would be more beneficial to allow Buhari complete four more years and leave the stage than to allow a fresh person from the north to come in and spend eight years, which could affect the chances of the south.
A source said: “Many people do not seem to understand where Asiwaju is coming from. He has decided to give his full support once again to President Buhari because he is looking at a bigger picture. However abysmal Buhari may have performed, it is better to tolerate him for additional four years than allowing another northerner to do fresh eight years. If Buhari wins in 2019, he will only do four years and go home; then a southerner will come up. Don’t forget that Tinubu still has an eye on the presidency.”
The source further said: “Asiwaju is not a neophyte in politics. He weighs his options and makes moves that he knows he will not regret. There are ‘bad bellies’ who are not comfortable with his profile and they want to badmouth him before the President. But they have been found to be liars and featherweight politicians. They have not got the political sagacity to galvanise a support base that can give the President victory next time around.
“They have done a lot to bite the finger that fed them. Without Tinubu, many of them wouldn’t be in politics let alone amounting to anything in the country. I want to tell you as a matter of fact that Asiwaju remains as relevant to the electoral success of President Buhari as he was in 2015, and the President knows it and he would decide to toy with his relationship with Asiwaju to his own hurt. Politics is not all about trailer-load of money. If you don’t know the strategy, you go home in regret after an election because you find out that after spending the money you still did not make any impact. Asiwaju knows how to wisely deploy experience, men and money to achieve success. That is why the President must court his friendship, at least for now.”
In an exclusive interview recently with Ayo Opadokun, a former secretary of National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) and the convener of the Coalition of Democrats for Electoral Reforms, (CODER), told BDSUNDAY that Tinubu “knows what he is doing.”
Opadoku believes that the APC leader must have read the signs very well and has a clear compass of where he is going.
Asked why Tinubu would support Buhari again in the midst of alleged failure of his administration on governance, and if such an endorsement did not amount to Asiwaju ‘dancing on the grave of Nigerians who have died on account of anti-people policies of the Buhari administration’, Opadoku retorted, “Asiwaju is playing politics. Leave him alone, he is playing politics. Asiwaju is playing politics.”
There was a rough time
Recall that the relationship between Buhari and Tinubu had been everything but rosy until late last year. Shortly after the inauguration of the Buhari administration in 2015, the President went solo, abandoning those who made his victory possible. And when he was being advised to constitute his cabinet, he was quoted as saying that he was not comfortable working with ministers, but would rather work with civil servants. He was also said to have described ministers as “noise makers”.
Then Buhari began to ride roughshod, picking all manner of people from his native state of Katsina and his close associates, to work with, leaving in the cold those who spent their time and resources to enthrone him in Aso Rock.
At the same time, Tinubu had also lost out at the National Assembly as his calculation of foisting a leadership there was punctured by the witty moves of Bukola Saraki and Yakubu Dogara, Senate president and House of Representatives speaker, respectively. The bicameral legislature was totally fenced off from the Asiwaju meddlesomeness.
As if that was also not demoralising enough, the seemingly “who are you” attitude of John Odigie-Oyegun towards Tinubu compounded the man’s alienation. Odigie-Oyegun was installed by Tinubu as the national chairman of the APC, but a huge gulf appears to be existing between them.
For the above reasons, the Jagaban became an unhappy man.
Aisha Buhari sensed the ugly state of affairs and spoke out and up against the injustice. She noted that those who never sowed into the party were the ones reaping heavily, whereas those who laboured have been pushed away in harvest time.
The First Lady was particular about the treatment against Tinubu, who she had confessed was instrumental to the success of her husband in 2015.
“My husband, General Muhammadu Buhari has been contesting presidential elections for over a decade now, but this particular election is unique because our leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu jettisoned his personal interest for the sake of Nigeria,” she said.
After Aisha’s observation, an analyst was quoted as saying that “Asiwaju as I see things today is on his own. The President has since surrounded himself with his brothers. But it is not unexpected. It is only those who refused to believe the history that doubted what the president is capable of doing when in office. Before the elections, many people said and wrote so many things about the likelihood of a severance of relationship between the two party chieftains. Today, such predictions as it were, are coming to pass.”
The analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity, further said: “Recall that in order to be part of government, Tinubu had wanted to field himself as the vice president, a move that was shot down by many interests. When that dream caved in, Yemi Osinbajo was fielded instead.”
Tinubu until recently had been left in the lurch. He was neither being consulted nor intimated with government’s plans.
Loyalists of Tinubu had listed some hostile actions against the former governor. Some of the issues raised include the exclusion of Tinubu’s candidates from Buhari’s final ministerial list, the alleged gang-up against his candidate, James Faleke, in the Kogi governorship election, who was the late Audu Abubakar’s running mate, and the alleged fraud against Olusegun Abraham, his candidate, in the Ondo governorship primary.
It was said that Tinubu lost out during the appointment of political office holders, members of the Federal Executive Council inclusive. This, according to observers, was part of the Buhari administration’s plot to build a new power base, detached from Tinubu’s stranglehold.
In December 2016, Cornelius Adebayo, a former minister of Communications and Works, who was also governor of Kwara State in 1983, alluded to the impasse between Tinubu and Buhari, saying, “We cannot avoid having differences of ideas, opinions or approach to issues or governance. In any party, any member may have his own different view. But differences within party membership are not strange. The APC is a coalition of independently existing parties, before they coalesced into one. So, it is not strange that there are differences in opinion and approach. What they (Buhari and Tinubu) should try to do now is to harmonise their positions and do what is best for Nigeria.”
While in Akure, Ondo State in November 2017, Tinubu had declared that there was no automatic ticket for Buhari in 2019. At that time, Tinubu’s next movement with APC and Buhari was unknown. He had begun to seek out old friends and acquaintances in the Afenifere, pan-Yoruba socio-cultural group. He went to greet the leader of the group, Pa. Reuben Fasonranti.
He came heavily on some APC governors who had endorsed President Buhari for second term, saying that whoever would represent the party must be selected through a transparent primary election.
He had insisted that the party would not violate its law to grant Buhari automatic ticket.
Condemning governors who had already publicly endorsed President Buhari for 2019, Tinubu said the governors lacked the power to do so, as such action contravened the APC constitution.
“No governor can appropriate the power of endorsement to themselves,” he said.
The renewed love
Before the renewed love between Buhari and Tinubu, a source had said: “We won’t be surprised if the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission wakes up tomorrow to say they are probing Tinubu or his associates. They may even send the Department of State Service after him because that is the step the Buhari government has taken against all their perceived enemies. Asiwaju knows that they may come for him.”
But on October 30, 2017 the President met with Tinubu at the Presidential Villa. The meeting sparked controversy among Nigerians, with many saying that it is just a ploy to curry Tinubu’s favour as election year is drawing near and the credibility of the party is waning.
Tinubu announced to the whole world, “I just met with the President. Our discussion was fruitful, productive and it was about the country and leadership as a whole.”
Since after the October rapprochement, things appear to be going for both party men.
In an apparent celebration of a successful fence-mending, Tinubu was among those on the entourage of President Buhari to the 5th European Union-African Union (EU-AU) Summit in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire late last year.
Again, in the heat of that celebration, the President, openly acknowledged Tinubu as “our leader.”
Recall that Tinubu severally denied openly the friction between himself and the President. He also refuted allegations that a cabal existed in the administration which hijacked power and shoved him aside despite his huge efforts in helping the party come to power, saying that he has confidence in the leadership of the President.
“I have confidence in this President; there is no doubt about that. We worked hard to bring about the government, there are certain things that are unpredictable and those are things that can lean itself to gossips, insinuations and all of that.
“But once you create leadership and it is functioning, you don’t have to babysit that leadership unless there is a loss of confidence and I don’t have that,” he said.
But despite the picture Tinubu painted of a robust relationship between Aso Villa and Bourdillon (Asiwaju’s residence in Ikoyi, Lagos), observers say that the alarm raised by Aisha Buhari, the First Lady, that a cabal may have hijacked power, cannot be a myth.
For close observers, Tinubu was just playing the normal politics of not washing the party’s dirty linen in public.
A chieftain of the party in Osun State was quoted as saying that “This is the beginning of the end of the APC. The party will shatter into smithereens. We are ready for them. They are going nowhere.”
Desperate moves
BDSUNDAY gathered that when it dawned on President Buhari that he would be needing Tinubu again to achieve his re-election ambition, he began to send emissaries to Bourdillon.
Today, the former Lagos State governor has become a beautiful bride to be courted once again.
In what analysts describe as desperation on the part of the President, some of his recent pronouncements could be said to be pro-Tinubu. For instance, contrary to the endorsement by the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) of a one-year extension of the Odigie-Oyegun-led National Working Committee (NWC), Buhari reversed it, ostensibly to placate Tinubu.
Although he had earlier supported the extension, President Buhari made a volte face, saying it was an illegal as it contravenes a section of the party’s constitution.
“On my own part, I have taken time to review and seek advice on the resolution and what I found is that it contravenes both our party’s constitution and the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,” he said.
Tinubu had clapped, saying that “President Buhari’s action saves the party from a serious legal turmoil. If the elongations were deemed illegal, then all subsequent party actions, including the nomination of all of our candidates for elective offices, might also be of questionable legality.
“Such a predicament would constitute an unnecessary and a mortal blow to the party and its role in promoting progressive governance in Nigeria,” the national leader submitted, in reaction to the President’s decision on the tenure extension.
Three weeks ago, the President moved his seat from Abuja and relocated to Lagos just to please Tinubu. He was the chairman of the 10th Colloquium to commemorate the 66th birthday of Asiwaju. The belief out there is that the President must have used the occasion of the visit to sandpaper some rough edges of their relationship as he spent extra day after the event.
Zebulon Agomuo
