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Kebbi, Bauchi, Yobe, Delta and Edo states are the top five states in February that have recorded the highest level of inflation year- to-year, data from Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed amid forecast of food shortage.
According to the NBS data, the state with the highest inflation rate year-on-year was Kebbi State with inflation rate of 18.60 percent, followed closely by Bauchi State with an inflation rate of 17.68 per cent, while Yobe, River and Nasarrawa states had 17.65 percent, 16.35 percent, and 16.12 percent inflation rate to complete list of top five states with the highest level of inflation in February 2018.
BusinessDay’s analysis shows that food inflation year-on-year was highest in Kwara state at 23.52 percent followed closely by Yobe state with 22.37 percent, while Kebbi state had 21.82 percent respectively, the top three states with highest food inflation rate among the 36 states in Nigeria. Bauchi with 12.82 percent, Anambra with 13.53 percent and Benue with 13.83 percent recorded the least rise in food inflation.
Global food agencies have warned against impending food shortage that could affect 3.8 million people in 16 northern states of Nigeria and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
The agencies, which include UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP), listed the 16 states as Bauchi, Benue, Gombe, Jigawa, Plateau, Niger, Kebbi, Katsina, Kaduna, Taraba, Zamfara, Sokoto, Kano, Yobe, Borno and Adamawa.
The agencies issued the warning last Thursday in Abuja at a meeting for the presentation of the results of the March 2018 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis of food and security situation in Nigeria.
Month-on-month however, February 2018 food inflation was highest in Kebbi with 2.58 percent, Yobe with 2.07 percent and Niger with 1.94 percent, while Abuja, Ebonyi, Enugu, Kogi Nasarawa, Plateau and Taraba all recorded food price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in February 2018.
The CH report said that judging from the current situation in the 16 states and FCT, more than 3.8 million people might face acute food shortage if tangible efforts were not made to address the situation between June and August, the next lean period.
“More than 10 million people were analysed and over 3.8 million people need urgent attention of food, while it was projected that 5.8 million people would face extreme food and nutrition deficits,”the report added.
Nigeria’s inflation eased to 14.33, year-on-year in February 2018, making it the 13th consecutive disinflation (slowdown in the inflation rate though still positive) since January 2017. This was fuelled by the decline in the prices of food and petrol in the period under review.
“The cost push factors that led to the rise in inflation in 2016 such as FOREX scarcity and transport costs have been easing albeit slowly but continues to ease thereby leading to a slowdown in the rate of price increases for food and non-food items,” Yemi Kale, Statistician General of state-funded NBS told BusinessDay in a tweeted response on March 14.
The slowdown in the rate was 0.8 percent points less than the 15.13 percent recorded in the previous month, and on a month-on-month comparison, the Headline index increased by 0.79 percent in February 2018, down by 0.01 percent points from the 0.80 percent points recorded in January, as compiled from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report.
The Food Index increased by 17.59 percent year-on-year in February, down by 1.33 percent points from 18.92 percent rate recorded in January 2018.
The rise in the index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Milk, cheese and egg, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Fish and Vegetables, Coffee, tea and cocoa.
Month-on-month, the food sub-index decreased to 0.85 percent in February 2018, down by 0.02 percent points from 0.87 percent recorded in January.
The average annual rate of change of the food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending February 2018 over the previous twelve month average was 19.52 percent, 0.1 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in January (19.62 percent).
