The campaign for the 2019 elections is already in full gear, with alliances being formed on a daily basis, and the seemingly forgotten, again becoming the much courted bride. Although the epistle from a former president attempted to throw the cat among the pigeons, the admonition could only have worked if Nigeria’s elections were about ideology and ideas. Since there are no ideals being debated or voted on, the upcoming election will simply be an ethnic and alliance census, with the incumbent, if he remains in good health, certain to carry the day.
In any other sane country, the president wouldn’t even attempt to contest for a second term due to his woeful scorecard. I struggle to list any of his campaign promises that has been actualized, with even the ones that needed only common sense to achieve becoming insurmountable in the hands of the current administration. The promise to build one new refinery every year in the first four years has turned into a pipe dream, and in its place, we have the perennial fuel scarcity. The existing refineries’ capacity utilization remain below 20%, and the administration has no clue on a framework that will turn this situation around.
On the economic front, the administration that promised 3 million jobs a year led the country into its first recession in more than two decades, and refused to take responsibility for it. Without the active contribution of the clueless government which remains bereft of any idea on how to run an economy, chances of an economic contraction would have been very slim, even with low oil prices. Exchange rate took flight from about 200NGN/USD at the inauguration of the incumbent, and has now settled around 360NGN/USD. Inflation that was 8.05% in the last full year before the current administration took over, averaged about 16.3% in 2017. Indeed, between 2015 and now, if your earning hasn’t increased by more than 40%, you are in a worse place than you were in 2015.
On security matters, the incumbent has consolidated on the gains the previous administration made against Boko Haram at the tail end of its tenure, but it has allowed the scourge of the herdsmen to fester and replace the Islamic insurgency. There also hasn’t been any appreciable progress in the state of our infrastructure, indeed, I struggle to see any meaningful projected that was conceived and completed by the current administration. The greatest disappointment and scam, however, has been in the anti-corruption war theatre, where the government can’t seem to rid itself of corruption scandals, going from Ikoyigate to Mainagate and now NHIS, yet nobody is in jail. Our president seems to be the only living saint that enjoys the company of bandits.
All the above enumerated should spell doom for any president, but in our country, this president will contest and win the next election. People will vote him, not because of his performance, many cannot even connect the hardship they are presently experiencing to his policies, but because he is of the same ethnic extraction as them or their States are politically aligned to the center. This ethnic and alliance census that we call an election will be decided in his favor. Most of the rabble rousers that were on vacation for the past 3 years, who are now out en masse only want to negotiate increase in their bank balances under the guise of clamoring for good governance, and will disappear once the deal is done.
For those that truly seek good governance, and are tired of the mediocre quality across the broad spectrum of leadership in Nigeria, the awareness must start now and remain a continuous process. The current crop of leaders we have is a direct consequence of our actions and inactions. We all need to be more politically aware and involved as the decisions that collectively affect us are being determined. It is only people that are on the ballot box that can, and will be voted for.
Olugbenga A. Olufeagba
