Commons set to pass Article 50 bill; Ministers flag possibility of exit with no EU deal
Theresa May is on the brink of formally launching Britain’s departure from the EU after rebel Tory MPs admitted they were unlikely to have the numbers to block the prime minister in the House of Commons today.
Mrs May could trigger Article 50, the mechanism for Brexit, any time from tomorrow if she succeeds in heading off the rebellion by a small band of Europhile MPs. That will start the complicated two-year process of unravelling more than 40 years of EU membership.
David Davis and Liam Fox, two of Britain’s most senior Brexit ministers, admitted that Britain was preparing for a scenario where the UK had no deal with the rest of the EU.
Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, said that showed the government was “playing Russian roulette” with people’s economic wellbeing. But both ministers insisted they were confident a deal could be struck with the other 27 EU countries.
Mr Davis, Brexit secretary, yesterday urged Conservative MPs not to “tie the prime minister’s hands” in the vote this evening. He said he understood the importance of parliamentary accountability but added that the Article 50 bill should be kept as simple as possible to give Mrs May room to manoeuvre. Most people just wanted the prime minister to get on with the job regardless of how they voted last summer, he said.
The government is trying to reverse two amendments passed by the House of Lords last week. One promised a “meaningful” parliamentary vote on the final EU deal, while the other protected EU nationals living in Britain.
Some rebels have admitted in private they are unlikely to muster the numbers to prevent a government victory today, not least because the Democratic Unionist party and some Labour MPs would support Mrs May. That means the bill could return to the Lords tonight, where it is expected to pass swiftly in deference to the will of the Commons.
The legislation could achieve Royal Assent tomorrow, when Mrs May will update the Commons about last week’s EU summit: she could use the moment to trigger Article 50. Even if that timetable proves too tight, aides are “certain” the process will begin before the end of the week. European leaders are preparing for an imminent start to Brexit talks with a meeting of EU27 leaders likely on April 6.
The focus will quickly turn towards the mechanics of departure such as the potential “divorce bill” the UK may have to pay. The Commons foreign affairs committee said in a report yesterday that it had seen no real evidence of serious contingency planning by the government for a no-deal scenario.
Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the CBI, told the BBC it was worried that the EU and UK would fail to strike a deal. That would lead to “really significant chaos” in terms of regulatory confusion and tariffs, she said.
Focus will quickly turn towards the mechanics of the departure such as the potential ‘divorce bill’
