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The financial industry could lose £38bn if the UK quits the single market, a report commissioned by a group lobbying on behalf of the City has said.
The report, commissioned by TheCityUK, also said up to 75,000 jobs could go.
The sector is concerned at the prospect of a so-called “hard Brexit”, with the UK leaving the EU single market in order to regain control of immigration.
On Sunday, the Prime Minister said “we are not leaving the EU only to give up control of immigration again”.
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Her comments helped to trigger a fall in the pound, which dropped to a 31-year low against the dollar on Tuesday.
The report, which was written by management consultancy Oliver Wyman, modelled several possible outcomes for the UK financial services industry after Brexit.
In one scenario, it said the UK might retain access to the European Economic Area on similar terms, meaning it would be able to continue trading across the bloc without the need for individual country licences.
This would cause less disruption, it said, costing the industry up to 4,000 jobs and £2bn of revenues a year.
However, another scenario would see the UK quit the bloc “without any regulatory equivalence”.
This would cost the industry up to £20bn and 35,000 jobs, it said – although the “knock-on impact” on related business activities could cost a further £18bn and 40,000 jobs.
Hector Sants, head of Oliver Wyman and former chief executive of the Financial Services Authority, told the BBC’s Today programme: “We are not taking a view on the outcome of the negotiations.
“What we have done here is to create a robust and independent database.”
He said he hoped the research would create a dialogue between the City and government.
“We are confident that these are numbers that people can coalesce around and discuss.”
BBC
