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Financial markets judged the first of three American presidential debates a win for Hillary Clinton, as Mexico’s peso rallied from a record low and U.S. stock index futures rose with equities in Asia and Europe.
The peso, a proxy for Donald Trump’s election prospects, rebounded more than 2 percent and Canada’s dollar strengthened from its weakest level since March, a sign investors see a reduced chance the Republican candidate will win the November vote. An MSCI gauge of global shares rose, while haven assets fell out of favor with gold declining for the first time in seven days as the yen weakened and U.S. Treasuries fell. Nickel erased losses on concern supplies will be disrupted by mine closures in the Philippines, the top producer.
In a CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers, 62 percent said Clinton won the exchange. Wagers against the Mexican peso had surged to a record ahead of the televised matchup in New York after some opinion polls put the two candidates neck-and-neck. A Trump election victory may hurt bonds in emerging markets such as China and Mexico by weighing on global trade, according to Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd., while Citigroup Inc. has said it could sink equities and spur volatility in gold and currency markets.
“The peso, Canadian dollar, S&P futures and Australian dollar are all surging — very much a relief rally in risk assets,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “In FX markets, the most obvious trade to anticipate a Trump presidency is to short the peso.”
