“If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing,’ to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities. I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians! WARNING: THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT BETTER MOVE FAST!”
That social media post by Donald Trump, the United States President Donald, on November 1, instantly jolted Nigeria’s security discourse, injecting an unprecedented external dimension into a year already defined by grinding violence and fragile gains.
The threat followed, by a day, Trump’s redesignation of Nigeria as a ‘Country of Particular Concern’ under the U.S. International Religious Freedom Act, citing widespread attacks on Christians and alleged violations of religious freedom.
On Christmas Day, December 25, Trump made good on his rhetoric with rare U.S. airstrikes in Sokoto State aimed at dismantling ISIS-linked fighters, an action widely described as a landmark moment in Nigeria’s troubled security space and a doctrinal shift in the country’s long-standing resistance to foreign military involvement.
These events framed 2025 as a defining year for Nigeria’s security landscape. The country intensified efforts against insurgency, banditry and communal violence, even as international pressures, regional instability and deep-seated governance weaknesses continued to shape outcomes.
While security agencies recorded notable tactical gains toward the end of the year, analysts broadly agreed that Nigeria finished 2025 at a delicate crossroads, having contained some threats without securing a decisive turn toward long-term stability.
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Security analysts characterised the year as one of hard-fought containment rather than victory.
Mike Ejiofor, former director-general of the Department of State Services (DSS), described 2025 as a ‘battle of wits’ between the state and a diverse mix of criminal networks and extremist groups.
According to him, the first half (H1) of the year was dominated by persistent waves of kidnapping, mass abductions and banditry across multiple regions, straining public confidence and security capacity.
He noted, however, that operations intensified markedly in the latter part of the year, driven by better deployment of equipment, expanded intelligence-led missions and closer cooperation with international partners, particularly the United States.
These efforts, Ejiofor said, yielded tangible results, including a noticeable reduction in large-scale attacks during the final quarter.
He pointed to the 2025 festive season as one of the most peaceful in recent memory, attributing it to sustained security presence and coordinated nationwide operations, and expressed cautious optimism that the momentum could be carried into 2026.
A more critical assessment came from Kabir Adamu, managing director of Beacon Consulting Limited, who argued that despite improvements in tactical and operational levels, Nigeria’s overarching security strategy remained largely unchanged.
At the strategic level, he said, 2025 looked strikingly similar to previous years, with authorities continuing to prioritise kinetic responses while paying insufficient attention to prevention and the root causes of insecurity.
Drawing on data compiled by his firm, Adamu said more than 10,000 Nigerians were killed in violent incidents in 2025, while over 70,000 people were abducted nationwide, figures that closely mirrored those recorded in 2024.
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The implication, he argued, was that violence had plateaued rather than declined, underscoring weaknesses in security sector governance and coordination, including the irregular functioning of bodies such as the National Security Council.
Still, Adamu acknowledged notable operational successes. Improved inter-agency coordination, he said, led to the killing of several high-profile terrorist and bandit commanders, disrupting supply chains and degrading the operational capacity of violent groups in specific locations. These outcomes, he added, demonstrated what was possible when intelligence sharing and joint operations were effectively implemented.
Geopolitical developments emerged as one of the most consequential influences on Nigeria’s security environment in 2025. Adamu pointed to Trump’s repeated assertions that Christians were being targeted for genocide in Nigeria and his threats of military action as fundamentally altering Nigeria’s external engagement.
Nigeria’s eventual approval of U.S.-backed airstrikes on terrorist targets marked a major doctrinal shift and exposed deep domestic divisions. While the move was supported in parts of southern Nigeria, it faced strong opposition across much of the North, reflecting long-standing sensitivities about sovereignty and foreign troops.
Adamu warned that this polarisation poses a significant risk as Nigeria enters 2026, a pre-election year, and could be exploited by actors seeking to destabilise the country. He also highlighted the ripple effects of coups in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea, alongside rising disinformation campaigns, as factors increasingly shaping Nigeria’s threat environment.
Chidi Omeje, an Abuja-based security expert, also described 2025 as a highly eventful and challenging year marked by persistent terrorism, banditry and the emergence of new violent and criminal groups. He noted that insecurity spread beyond traditional flashpoints, affecting parts of the North-Central, South-East, South-South and South-West.
Kidnapping, in particular, became a nationwide threat, increasingly targeting commuters, businesspeople and rural communities once considered relatively safe.
Omeje acknowledged sustained efforts by security agencies, especially the military, despite limited manpower and overstretched resources, but argued that these efforts were insufficient given the scale and complexity of the crisis.
Looking ahead, Omeje said strong political will at the highest level would be decisive. Without firm leadership from the commander-in-chief, he warned, even well-designed policies would falter at implementation.
He called for greater focus on root causes such as poor governance, unemployment, poverty and inequality, alongside stronger coordination among security agencies, improved air and ground support, expanded recruitment and increased investment in surveillance across land, air and waterways.
By year’s end, Nigeria ranked sixth globally on the Global Terrorism Index. Terrorism-related deaths, which had risen to 565 in 2024 from 392 in 2022, continued into 2025, alongside intensifying mass abductions and village raids that turned kidnapping-for-ransom into a lucrative criminal enterprise.
High-profile cases included the abduction of about 230 schoolchildren and teachers in Niger State and 25 schoolgirls in Kebbi State, most of whom were later released.
The North-West remained the deadliest region, while communal violence also flared in central and southern states. In all, the H1 of 2025 recorded an estimated 6,800 deaths and more than 5,400 kidnappings, underscoring the scale of the challenge Nigeria carries into 2026.
