A high-stakes bet on Bitcoin’s year-end price trajectory has sent ripples through the crypto derivatives market after a block trader executed a massive 20,000 BTC options strategy, worth an estimated $1.76 billion, positioning for the world’s largest cryptocurrency to climb into the $100,000 to $118,000 range before December closes.
The trade, executed on Monday, comes amid renewed optimism across the digital asset market, buoyed by rising expectations of an 85 percent probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its December meeting.
Bitcoin, which only days ago tested lows near $80,000, has since rebounded to around $87,000–$88,000, rekindling bullish sentiment even as spot ETFs continue to record significant outflows.
According to crypto options exchange Deribit, the trader deployed a long-dated 100k/106k/112k/118k call condor, a sophisticated four-legged options structure that profits when the underlying asset trades within a defined price band at expiry. The position involves buying a call option at a lower strike ($100k), selling two calls at intermediate strikes ($106k and $112k), and buying one call at a higher strike ($118k).
All options share the same expiration date in December 2025, underscoring an outlook that stretches beyond short-term volatility.
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“Trader lifted a long-dated 100k/106k/112k/118k call condor for Dec ’25. Signal is clear: a structured bullish view, expecting BTC to reach the $100–$118k zone, not explode past it,” Deribit disclosed on X.
The strategy’s construction caps gains above $118,000 and limits losses below $100,000, allowing the trader to express a measured bullish stance rather than a bet on a parabolic breakout.
Analysts say the condor reflects confidence in Bitcoin’s continued recovery, but also an acknowledgment of macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly around monetary policy and ETF flows.
Notably, despite the broader market rebound, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $151 million on November 24, marking persistent risk aversion among U.S. institutional investors. Fidelity’s FBTC was the only fund to post inflows. In contrast, Ethereum and Solana spot ETFs attracted $96.7 million and $58 million respectively, led by strong demand for BlackRock’s ETHA.
The block trade stands out not only because of its enormous size but also its timing. It comes at a moment when Bitcoin’s technical indicators remain oversold**, according to Glassnode, yet early signs of recovery are beginning to surface across spot and derivatives markets. Analysts say such large structured bets often foreshadow institutional conviction, even during periods of mixed sentiment.
A block trade, typically conducted privately to avoid slippage and market disruption, allows institutional players to negotiate large orders off-exchange. Monday’s move illustrates the sophistication of newer entrants engaging with Bitcoin’s derivatives landscape—not merely speculating on direction, but also on the magnitude and probability of specific price ranges.
While the billionaire-scale options play does not predict a new all-time high—Bitcoin would need to break above its recent peak near $126,000—it does signal conviction that the cryptocurrency is poised for a meaningful rally into six-figure territory over the next several weeks.
As markets continue to digest shifting macro expectations and volatile ETF flows, all eyes are now on whether Bitcoin can sustain its recovery and justify one of the largest directional options bets seen this year.
