…slows for the 7th consecutive month to 16.1% paving the way for a rate cut
Nigeria’s inflation rate fell again for the seventh consecutive month to 16.1 per cent, well below many economists’ projections, making leeway for a sizable reduction in the benchmark rate.
Annual inflation decelerated to 16.1 per cent in October from 18,02 per cent in the previous month, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). BusinessDay’s survey of eight economists had projected a fall in the inflation rate to 17 – 17.8 per cent.
Analysts at CardinalStone projected further moderation in inflation, as the drivers that were obtainable in September 2025 are likely to persist.
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This deceleration was driven by declines in both food and core inflation. Particularly, food inflation dropped to 13.1 per cent year-on-year in October from 16.87 in September 2025, attributed to softer prices of staples such as Maize, Garri, Beans, Eggs, and Tomatoes. Similarly, core inflation slumped to 18.7 per cent in October 2025 from 19.53 per cent in September 2025.
However, on a MoM basis, headline inflation scaled by 0.9 per cent from 0.7 per cent recorded in the prior period.
Analysts at Meristem projected food inflation to ease further in the near term, supported by the ongoing harvest season and government food security interventions.
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“However, festive season demand and recent PMS price adjustments due to union strikes could temper the pace of disinflation. Core inflation should remain broadly stable amid sustained FX stability, though risks from global energy and trade disruptions persist. Overall, headline inflation is projected to maintain its downward trajectory in the short term, underpinned by ongoing disinflationary forces,” it said.
It said that the softer inflation outlook reinforces the case for additional monetary easing by the CBN at its November policy meeting. “We expect a 100bps reduction in MPR to 26.0 per cent.”
The Monetary Policy Committee is set to meet on the 24th and 25th of this month to determine the country’s benchmark interest rate.
