Nigeria has emerged as one of the world’s top three contributors to oil demand growth in 2025, alongside China and the US, according to data from the International Energy Agency.
The report showed that global oil demand growth rebounded to 920,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the third quarter of 2025, more than double the 430,000 bpd increase in the previous quarter, as global trade conditions improved and China’s deliveries strengthened.
“Worldwide 2025 gains of 790,000 bpd year-on-year are led by the US, China and Nigeria, up by about 120,000 bpd each,” the agency said.
However, the IEA warned that this modest rebound in demand has done little to offset the strong surge in supply.
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“Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards,” the report said.
World oil supply reached 108.2 million bpd in October, despite a temporary 440,000 bpd monthly decline caused by maintenance and outages.
“Total output was a massive 6.2 million bpd above January, albeit the low point for the year due to seasonal shut-ins,” the IEA said, noting that Saudi Arabia accounted for much of the rise with an additional 1.5 million bpd between January and October. The agency expects supply to grow by another 3.1 million bpd in 2025 and 2.5 million bpd in 2026, warning that the relentless rise in global oil supply could deepen the current imbalance.
This supply surge has weighed heavily on prices.
Prices briefly fell to $60 per barrel, their lowest since 2021, before rebounding to around $62 per barrel after Washington announced sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil.
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“The impacts of new sanctions on Russia are yet to become clear. The economic repercussions of recent tariff turmoil and the US federal government shutdown continue to pose risks to the forecast,” the IEA cautioned.
For Nigeria, the IEA’s projections present a mixed outlook.
As one of the few African economies driving demand growth, the rise reflects steady fuel consumption and increased industrial activity. Yet, with crude prices under pressure and inventories swelling, Nigeria’s oil revenues could face renewed strain. The report warned that unless demand picks up meaningfully, surging supplies may continue to exceed consumption, adding to stock builds and price volatility.
The agency said that the global oil outlook remains fragile, noting that risks to the forecast remain plentiful.
It added, “While supply growth continues to outpace demand, the market’s path into 2026 will hinge on how quickly economic headwinds subside and whether sanctions reshape global trade flows.”
