Global markets navigated the risks of a US government shutdown this week, while in Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced a significant phased reform to take direct control of the settlement and trading platforms for fixed income and FX products starting in November 2025, a move aimed at enhancing transparency and oversight.
US Government Shutdown
The U.S. entered its first shutdown in six years due to a budget standoff, primarily over healthcare funding (Obamacare subsidies).
From an economic perspective, a prolonged shutdown poses significant risks.
“ It could erode consumer confidence, drag on the US' near-term growth, and raise questions around the country's fiscal credibility. More concerns also loom on the labor market, as temporary discharges from work could turn into lasting job cuts, extending the damage beyond the immediate disruption,” analysts at Meristem said.
While equity markets have been calm so far, the market wrapped up the week on a positive note as the S&P500 advanced to 6,748.81pts, “banking on a swift resolution, an extended dispute could spark volatility across healthcare, defense, and tourism sectors, most exposed to federal spending.”
Ghana’s inflation fell to a single digit of 9.4%, its lowest in four years
Ghana’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 9.40 percent in September 2025, down from 11.50 percent in August. This is the ninth consecutive month of disinflation, indicating a steady improvement in price stability, despite inflation still being slightly above the Bank of Ghana’s 8.00 percent medium-term target range.
The moderation was largely driven by a sharp slowdown in food inflation, which eased to 11.0 percent from 14.80 percent in the prior month, alongside a deceleration in non-food inflation to 8.20 percent from 8.70 percent.
CBN takes control of fixed income trading
In Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced its phased reform of the Nigerian Fixed Income Market, a move aimed at deepening transparency, boosting efficiency, and reinforcing regulatory oversight.
The restructuring, set to begin in November 2025, will see the Apex bank take direct control of both the settlement process and the trading platform for fixed-income transactions and foreign exchange (FX) products.
The rollout is set to be gradual to avoid market disruptions, beginning with a User Acceptance Testing (UAT) in October 2025, followed by a pilot phase that runs in parallel with the existing system. The full migration of settlement processes is slated for November 3rd, while a CBN-managed trading platform for key market participants will go live by 1st of December.
NNPC to supply 82mb of crude oil to Dangote
The NNPC Ltd. signed a two-year crude supply agreement with the Dangote Refinery for its 650,000 bpd facility. A total of 82 million barrels will be supplied by October 2025, with 60 percent settled in naira.
This Naira-denominated deal is expected to ease pressure on foreign reserves and support the local currency. Ultimately, the steady domestic supply aims to enhance energy security, help moderate pump prices, and dampen imported inflation.
PenCom Overhauls Capital Rules for PFAs and PFCs
The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has revised capital requirements for PFAs and PFCs, linking them directly to the size of Assets Under Management (AUM). This action, which mandates new capital levels (e.g., NGN20 billion for most PFAs), aims to strengthen systemic stability, mitigate risks, and drive consolidation in the pension industry by the compliance deadline of December 31, 2026.
Local Market
NGX on course to 40% ytd performance
The Nigerian equities market stayed positive for the fourth consecutive week, as the NGX-ASI rose by 1.02 percent week-on-week to close at 143,584.04pts, bringing the year-to-date gains to 39.50 percent.
This was driven by oil&gas sector of the bourse, which saw a 5.68 percent increase this week. Some of the companies that drove the market this week are Aradel and Eternal Oil. Followed closely was the bank index, which gained 1.17 percent due to strong demand for Fidelity and Sterling.
Bullish week for fixed-income
The fixed income market was bullish throughout the week, driven by improved liquidity following a CRR adjustment. Average yields across Treasury bills eased from 17.84 percent to 17.76 percent, while FGN bonds moderated from 16.38 percent to 16.33 percent. Demand was concentrated in long-dated bills and mid-tenor bonds as investors sought to lock in higher rates, despite some profit-taking in the short-dated papers.
Liquidity will be further supported by N8.58 trillion in upcoming maturities for the fourth quarter of 2024.
The Eurobond market was also stable, with the average price edging up to $99.81. Modest gains were seen across mid- and long-curve instruments, reflecting positive domestic macroeconomic sentiment, which resulted in a 9 basis point reduction in the average Eurobond yield to USD7.76 percent
