On July 21, 2025, at the Domestic Investment Summit, the Federal Government of Nigeria unveiled its ambitious project under the “Nigeria First” policy – to grow the economy to $1 trillion by 2030.
Achieving a trillion-dollar economy in just five years is no ordinary challenge. Nigeria’s past growth trajectory offers little precedent for what it will take to reach this ambitious target. With Nigeria’s economy currently valued at less than a quarter of that figure, bridging the gap will demand far more than rhetoric. It will require vision, discipline, bold policy decisions and a radical rethinking of Nigeria’s economic foundations. Can Nigeria grow fast and sustainably enough to make the target a reality?
Nigeria’s GDP currently stands at N372.8 trillion ($243.7 billion) following the latest rebasing of the economy at an exchange rate of N1,530 to the dollar. That leaves a gap of $753.3 billion to reach the $1 trillion milestone. Put differently, Nigeria would have to grow by more than 300% in just half a decade, a leap requiring compound annual growth rates of about 26%.
This kind of leap is surprisingly not new to Nigeria. As a result of the oil boom in the early 1970s, Nigeria experienced its highest ever recorded growth, with GDP expanding by 25.01% in 1970 alone. Although with little interruptions in 1975 and 1978, that momentum continued till the end of the decade. However, the collapse of oil prices in the 1980s, saw to the dwindling fortunes of this era in Nigeria. Between 1981 and 1984 alone, the economy contracted four times in succession, with the steepest fall of -13.1% in 1981. President Shehu Shagari was forced to declare “Austerity Measures,” banning government hiring and slashing expenditure.
Recovery from austerity was experienced from 1985 to 1994, and from 1996 to 2005, when reforms and debt relief coincided with rising oil receipts. Between 2008 and 2015, growth was more sustained, with rates consistently above 5%. But since the 2016 recession, Nigeria has struggled to break even 4% growth annually. In 2024, GDP grew by 3.4% while the first quarter of 2025 registered 3.7%. The passes across a clear message: growth dependent on oil prices is neither stable nor transformative.
How then do economies truly achieve sustained, broad-based expansion? At its core, growth happens when nations expand their productive capacity which includes producing more goods and services, creating higher incomes, jobs, and improved living standards. This is not achieved on the podium with speeches detailing bold ambitions, but through the deliberate deployment of resources, institutions, and human effort. Modern economic growth theory highlights human capital which captures skills, knowledge, and innovation as central to this process. This reflects a shift away from the old view that growth was driven mainly by external capital or natural resources.
Nigeria’s experience probably proves the declaration by Andrew B. Abel and Ben S. Bernanke, in their book, Macroeconomics, that the difference between rich and developing nations is that while the former at some point in their history experienced periods of rapid economic growth, the latter either have never experienced sustained growth or have had periods of growth offset by periods of economic decline.
Indonesia managed an average growth of 7% between 1968 and 1981, fueled by oil revenues and increased investment, both local and foreign. When oil slumped, it pivoted toward manufacturing and exports, sustaining 7% growth again between 1989 and 1997. Malaysia followed a similar path, achieving nearly 8% average growth between 1988 and 1997, driven by diversification, exports, and regulatory reform. Vietnam, after the Đổi Mới reforms of 1986, embraced a hybrid model of market liberalisation and strong state direction, lifting millions from poverty and sustaining average annual growth of over 6% for three decades. These cases demonstrate what is possible when ambition is matched by deliberate strategy. Nigeria, however, has tended to treat reform as a reaction to crisis, not as a proactive national project. Oil windfalls gave the illusion of progress but failed to generate the productive base that sustains prosperity.
So, what must be done? The government must first identify and nurture growth drivers. Infrastructure remains a fundamental barrier – electricity, transport, ports, and logistics require massive investment to support productive activity. Without power, factories remain idle and without good road-networks, goods cannot move competitively. Secondly, exports must be diversified. Recent figures offer glimmers of progress: non-oil exports rose by 19.6% in the first half of 2025, with manufactured goods up 67.2% in the second quarter compared to 2024. While these numbers are encouraging, they are far too small relative to the scale of the challenge.
Foreign direct investment is another lever. Africa attracted a record $97 billion in FDI last year, up 75% from 2023. Nigeria, with its population and market potential, should be a natural magnet. But investors seek stability, transparency, and infrastructure which are areas where Nigeria still struggles. The question is not whether capital exists, but whether Nigeria can create the conditions to capture a significant share of it.
