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CardinalStone Research forecasts Nigerian Breweries Plc will post N1.51 trillion in revenue this year, up 39% from 2024, as price hikes, seasonal demand, and product innovation help the brewer extend its recovery from two years of losses.
The Heineken-controlled company had already swung back into profit in the first half of 2025, reporting earnings per share of N2.85 compared with a loss of N8.28 a year earlier.
Revenue jumped 54% to N733.1 billion, with premium brands such as Heineken, Tiger, and Desperados recording double-digit volume growth despite softness in mainstream labels.
Margins are expected to strengthen further. CardinalStone projects gross margin at 42.5% and EBIT margin at 20.2% for 2025, reflecting cost-optimisation initiatives, lower inflation, and a shift to local sourcing.
The brewer’s cost-to-sales ratio dropped to 57.9% in the first half, from 66.7% a year earlier, as solar-powered breweries and efficient distribution reduced input costs.
Read also: Nigerian Breweries swings back to profit as debt costs plunge
A stronger balance sheet is also driving confidence. Nigerian Breweries used proceeds from a rights issue — which lifted Heineken’s stake to 72.9% — to pay down foreign-currency debt, shifting from a $217.9 million net liability in 2023 to a $42.1 million net asset in 2024.
That generated a N7.3 billion FX gain in H1 and is expected to provide more support through year-end at an assumed N1,550/$ exchange rate.
Leverage has fallen to multi-year lows, with debt-to-equity at 0.33x, while return on equity is forecast to rebound to 28.4% after years of negative returns.
Despite the turnaround, the stock trades at a discount. At N68.30, Nigerian Breweries is valued at 9.8 times forward earnings, below the 13.2x average for Middle East and Africa peers. Its 5.3x EV/EBITDA multiple also lags the regional mean of 7.3x.
CardinalStone raised its 12-month target price to N80.62, implying an 18% upside, and reaffirmed its BUY rating.
The outlook hinges on sustaining growth in both premium and mainstream segments. While high-end brands are driving profitability, CardinalStone noted that defending share in the mass market with Goldberg, Maltina, and other staples will be critical to preserving Nigerian Breweries’ dominance.
