...APC still popular, says Tinubu
On Saturday, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) conducted by-elections in 16 constituencies across Nigeria. What might have seemed like routine polls to fill vacant legislative seats quickly evolved into a political litmus test, a preview of the battles to come in 2027.
From Anambra to Kaduna, and Edo to Adamawa, the elections presented a rare opportunity to measure the strength of parties in the field, assess the opposition coalition’s experiment under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and gauge the public’s response to Nigeria’s deepening economic woes under the All Progressives Congress (APC).
APC: Still the party to beat
Despite mounting economic hardship and discontent, the ruling APC once again demonstrated why it remains Nigeria’s most formidable political machine. Across many of the contested constituencies, APC candidates swept seats with commanding margins.
In Edo, Joseph Ikpea clinched victory in the Edo Central Senatorial District, while Omosede Igbinedion secured the Ovia Federal Constituency for the party. In Kaduna, despite a spirited campaign by former governor Nasir el-Rufai, the APC claimed the House of Representatives seat and two state assembly constituencies with landslide victories.
Even in Adamawa, home turf of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, APC carried the Ganye State Constituency with 15,923 votes, edging out the PDP’s 15,794. The ADC, the coalition party, barely registered with just 42 votes.
The message was unmistakable: the APC’s grassroots structure, built over years of incumbency and patronage, remains firmly intact.
PDP: The enduring opposition
While the ruling party celebrated its dominance, the PDP quietly affirmed its position as the major opposition, even amid internal fractures and defections. Victories in the Ibadan North Federal Constituency and Onitsha North 1 State Constituency were reminders that the party’s historic roots at the grassroots level still matter.
Analysts point out that Atiku’s over six million votes in the last presidential election were more reflective of the PDP’s enduring network than his personal political appeal. The by-elections underscored this point. Despite Atiku’s influence, his pivot into the ADC experiment failed to sway voters, even in his home state.
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ADC: A coalition’s harsh reality check
Perhaps the biggest storyline of the by-elections was the ADC’s performance, or lack of it.
Formed as a platform for opposition leaders united by a common goal of unseating President Bola Tinubu in 2027, the ADC entered the by-elections with the hope of testing its popularity.
From Adamawa to Anambra, ADC candidates fared poorly, raising questions about whether a hurried coalition built on shared frustrations with the ruling party can withstand Nigeria’s complex political terrain.
For Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, two of the coalition’s biggest names, the outcome was sobering. While Atiku’s camp failed to register support in Adamawa, Obi’s last-minute endorsement of ADC candidates in Anambra did little to sway voters in a state where APGA maintained dominance. His balancing act between the Labour Party and ADC has now left him politically exposed.
NNPP and APGA: Regional strongholds hold firm
If the by-elections reinforced APC’s national dominance, they also highlighted the resilience of regional parties.
In Kano, Rabiu Kwankwaso’s NNPP remained a formidable force, winning the Bagwai/Shanono State Assembly seat by a landslide, even as APC managed to claim Ghari/Tsanyawa. The outcome confirmed Kano’s role as a critical battleground ahead of 2027.
In Anambra, APGA showed its staying power, clinching both the Anambra South Senatorial District and Onitsha North 1 State Constituency. These wins suggest that Peter Obi’s influence, while significant at the national level, cannot easily unseat APGA’s local machinery.
The shadow of electoral irregularities
The by-elections also exposed Nigeria’s unresolved electoral flaws.
Reports of arrests for vote-buying and bribery were widespread. In Kaduna, police and DSS operatives nabbed a PDP agent with N30 million cash allegedly meant for voter inducement. In Ogun, INEC officials were caught with cash suspected to be bribes, while ADC agents were arrested in Anambra with ballot paper booklets.
These incidents, once again, cast doubt on the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral process and underscored the challenges facing INEC as it prepares for the far more consequential 2027 general elections.
Beyond the numbers and party victories, Saturday’s by-elections were a mirror reflecting the state of Nigeria’s democracy. The APC’s hold on power remains strong, the PDP continues to endure as a viable opposition, and the ADC experiment faces an identity crisis.
“PDP is still a force the coalition should never ignore,” said Samuel Okechukwu, a Lagos-based political science scholar.
“ADC is a new party without roots. Maybe things will change between now and 2027.”
For the opposition coalition, the message is clear: slogans of unity are not enough to challenge a ruling party deeply entrenched across the country. Building grassroots structures, reconciling internal contradictions, and presenting a coherent message will be critical if they hope to make inroads by 2027.
For INEC and security agencies, the challenge remains curbing electoral malpractices and rebuilding public trust in Nigeria’s democracy.
And for voters, the by-elections offered both hope and caution. While democracy provides the platform for choice, Saturday’s polls reminded Nigerians that without reforms, elections risk remaining predictable exercises dominated by the old political order.
APC popularity
President Bola Tinubu congratulated winners of Saturday by-elections in 16 constituencies across 12 states, noting that performance of the APC signposts popularity of the ruling party
The president also attributed the party’s performance to the results of internal party unity and selection of popular candidates
The president commended INEC for the hitch-free elections, mostly devoid of violence.
Tinubu also congratulated Nentawe Yilwatda, new APC national chairman, for the emphatic first victory recorded under his leadership. He also hailed APC governors and other leaders on the success of the by-elections.
“Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda has shown leadership capacity and demonstrated what is achievable when popular candidates are fielded and with unity of purpose among party leaders.
“To all APC faithful and the electorate, thank you for the confidence reposed in our party. Be assured that our Renewed Hope slogan is not a mere slogan.”
Tinubu assured that the nation’s destination is better, more secure and prosperous, adding that, “we shall take you there, by the Grace of God.”
